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Mark Heim | mheim@al.com
Of five preseason publications, one doesn't have Alabama No. 1 and here's why.
There is very little debate within college football preseason publication circles when it comes to predicting who the top team of the 2016 season will be.
Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide landed atop four of five preseason prediction lists for the upcoming season. The one contrarian, however, appears to be splitting hairs between Nos. 1 and 2.
Athlon, Lindy's, The Sporting News and ESPN all have Alabama No. 1, while Phil Steele names Florida State No. 1. Steele has Alabama No. 2.
Steele has LSU at No. 4, while Athlon has Clemson at No. 4.
This, of course, leads to the debate about which teams will show up in the College Football Playoff.
In fact, the topic of two teams representing a conference in the playoff was a major discussion among two publications when predicting the season.
Phil Steele predicts both Alabama and LSU will represent the SEC in the final four to play for the title.
Meanwhile, Athlon Sports sees a similar situation playing out in the ACC with Florida State and Clemson.
"We picked Florida State in the division," Mitch Light of Athlon Sports said. "We picked Clemson fourth overall. We think for the first time there will be two teams in the same conference in the College Football Playoff. (The Clemson-Florida State game) was the most heated, most discussed pick in the prediction meeting in a long time.
"Part of the reason is that game is at Florida State. (Clemson) has the best quarterback in the country in DeShaun Watson. They lost a lot on defense. I think Florida State's 2-deep is better than Clemson's. We picked Florida State second, Clemson fourth."
"I went out of the box," Steele of Phil Steele College Football Preview said. "This is the third year of the playoffs. Everyone just assumes it will be one team per conference. But I think this year, Alabama and LSU are so loaded that the SEC can get two teams into the playoffs."
Steele predicted three of the four teams correctly for the playoffs in the first year, while picking only one of last year's participants.
"I think the Pac-12 might beat itself up. The Big Ten may beat itself up and create an opening there. LSU is the type of team that can step right in there."
The heavy defensive loses sustained by Clemson is the only reason Lindy's doesn't have Clemson - not Alabama - No. 1, Lindy Davis said.
But when it comes to Florida State and Clemson in the ACC, Steele said it is more about the Seminoles when they host Clemson on Oct. 29.
"Last year, Florida State was the 128th team in terms of experience and fewest number of returning starters," Steele explained. "Yet, they went into Death Valley and in the fourth quarter down by three, had the ball at midfield, got stopped on downs, gave up a touchdown and lost by 10.
"They were a young team that played well, but now they have 17 returning starters overall. They have beaten Clemson three of the past four year. They'll get it done at home, which is the reason I left Clemson out. That's the only game I have them an underdog in all year."
Steele stands alone when talking about the top spot. He has Florida State, but said that has to do with the schedule more than anything else.
He has Alabama No. 2 in his top 10 but No. 1 in his power poll.
He explains:
"When you look at Alabama this year, power pole-wise, they are my No. 1 most-talented team," Steele said. "They have the No. 1-ranked defensive line, No. 1 set of linebackers, No. 2 set of defensive backs. ... They have the No. 1 defense in the country."
He said, "They're solid at running back." He likes Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough. He pointed out Calvin Ridley and O.J. Howard as playmakers, and all the mentioned players are playing behind "one of the better offensive lines in the country."
"But look at that schedule. It's the third toughest schedule in the country. I feel the top 4 teams in the SEC are Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Alabama actually has to play each of the three teams on the road. Plus, they play Southern Cal away from home and Arkansas on the road.
"Florida State's road to the title game would be a lot easier with their toughest game being at home against Clemson. They do play Ole Miss, but they play them in Orlando."
Meanwhile, the majority is high on the Tide.
"Alabama's got six or eight draft-eligible players on defense that are all big-time prospects, Davis of Lindy's said. They are so loaded on defense that Alabama doesn't require much from their quarterback.
"The other thing is Alabama, if you look at Nick Saban's career, he's never had a great quarterback, but he's never had a bad one."
Light admits he would feel better about Alabama at No. 1 if they had experience at quarterback.
"You kind of learn your lesson and assume they may not have great quarterback play, but they get good enough quarterback play to compliment what they want to do."
As far as the SEC, four of the publications have LSU and three have Tennessee in the top 10.
As far as the national picture, Lindy points to Ohio State, Oklahoma and Michigan as significant players. Steele warns Southern Cal's schedule is the toughest in the country, Washington is a darkhorse, and Texas will be the most improved.
There is very little debate within college football preseason publication circles when it comes to predicting who the top team of the 2016 season will be.
Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide landed atop four of five preseason prediction lists for the upcoming season. The one contrarian, however, appears to be splitting hairs between Nos. 1 and 2.
Athlon, Lindy's, The Sporting News and ESPN all have Alabama No. 1, while Phil Steele names Florida State No. 1. Steele has Alabama No. 2.
Steele has LSU at No. 4, while Athlon has Clemson at No. 4.
This, of course, leads to the debate about which teams will show up in the College Football Playoff.
In fact, the topic of two teams representing a conference in the playoff was a major discussion among two publications when predicting the season.
Phil Steele predicts both Alabama and LSU will represent the SEC in the final four to play for the title.
Meanwhile, Athlon Sports sees a similar situation playing out in the ACC with Florida State and Clemson.
"We picked Florida State in the division," Mitch Light of Athlon Sports said. "We picked Clemson fourth overall. We think for the first time there will be two teams in the same conference in the College Football Playoff. (The Clemson-Florida State game) was the most heated, most discussed pick in the prediction meeting in a long time.
"Part of the reason is that game is at Florida State. (Clemson) has the best quarterback in the country in DeShaun Watson. They lost a lot on defense. I think Florida State's 2-deep is better than Clemson's. We picked Florida State second, Clemson fourth."
"I went out of the box," Steele of Phil Steele College Football Preview said. "This is the third year of the playoffs. Everyone just assumes it will be one team per conference. But I think this year, Alabama and LSU are so loaded that the SEC can get two teams into the playoffs."
Steele predicted three of the four teams correctly for the playoffs in the first year, while picking only one of last year's participants.
"I think the Pac-12 might beat itself up. The Big Ten may beat itself up and create an opening there. LSU is the type of team that can step right in there."
The heavy defensive loses sustained by Clemson is the only reason Lindy's doesn't have Clemson - not Alabama - No. 1, Lindy Davis said.
But when it comes to Florida State and Clemson in the ACC, Steele said it is more about the Seminoles when they host Clemson on Oct. 29.
"Last year, Florida State was the 128th team in terms of experience and fewest number of returning starters," Steele explained. "Yet, they went into Death Valley and in the fourth quarter down by three, had the ball at midfield, got stopped on downs, gave up a touchdown and lost by 10.
"They were a young team that played well, but now they have 17 returning starters overall. They have beaten Clemson three of the past four year. They'll get it done at home, which is the reason I left Clemson out. That's the only game I have them an underdog in all year."
Steele stands alone when talking about the top spot. He has Florida State, but said that has to do with the schedule more than anything else.
He has Alabama No. 2 in his top 10 but No. 1 in his power poll.
He explains:
"When you look at Alabama this year, power pole-wise, they are my No. 1 most-talented team," Steele said. "They have the No. 1-ranked defensive line, No. 1 set of linebackers, No. 2 set of defensive backs. ... They have the No. 1 defense in the country."
He said, "They're solid at running back." He likes Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough. He pointed out Calvin Ridley and O.J. Howard as playmakers, and all the mentioned players are playing behind "one of the better offensive lines in the country."
"But look at that schedule. It's the third toughest schedule in the country. I feel the top 4 teams in the SEC are Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Alabama actually has to play each of the three teams on the road. Plus, they play Southern Cal away from home and Arkansas on the road.
"Florida State's road to the title game would be a lot easier with their toughest game being at home against Clemson. They do play Ole Miss, but they play them in Orlando."
Meanwhile, the majority is high on the Tide.
"Alabama's got six or eight draft-eligible players on defense that are all big-time prospects, Davis of Lindy's said. They are so loaded on defense that Alabama doesn't require much from their quarterback.
"The other thing is Alabama, if you look at Nick Saban's career, he's never had a great quarterback, but he's never had a bad one."
Light admits he would feel better about Alabama at No. 1 if they had experience at quarterback.
"You kind of learn your lesson and assume they may not have great quarterback play, but they get good enough quarterback play to compliment what they want to do."
As far as the SEC, four of the publications have LSU and three have Tennessee in the top 10.
As far as the national picture, Lindy points to Ohio State, Oklahoma and Michigan as significant players. Steele warns Southern Cal's schedule is the toughest in the country, Washington is a darkhorse, and Texas will be the most improved.
