Last year, when Bama was sitting at home. Playing Notre Dame, at Notre Dame, in the 1st round of the playoffs last year fits all of the above. At Eugene, in spite of my belief Oregon is a bit down, does the same. The B1GCG? Yeah, fits in my view as well.
I'll proffer where IU can keep this game competitive, if not win, it's because of their upper class experience. In other words, UA needs this game to be about the 2's and the 3's.