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Alabama was a 6-point favorite against Georgia as of Monday afternoon.

In a game filled with intriguing matchups, Mac Jones and the Alabama passing game against Georgia’s defense may be the deciding factor.

At first glance, the entire Alabama offense against the entire Georgia defense seems to be nation-best against nation-best.

However, the Bulldogs have more of an advantage against the run, while the Tide pass offense has better opportunities.

This is Georgia’s best rushing defense of the Kirby Smart era. Georgia is allowing 1.5 yards per carry. The last defense to allow fewer than two yards per carry for an entire season was TCU in 2008 (1.7).

Ole Miss has the worst rushing defense in college football by yards per carry (7.3), nearly a yard worse than Vanderbilt. Najee Harris is a great running back, but it’s hard to imagine ever experiencing a bigger week-to-week jump in competition.

Alabama’s offensive line has been better at pass protection than at run blocking to this point. The Tide ran for a combined 3.4 yards per carry against Missouri and Texas A&M.

Harris is going to create some yards on his own, but it’s going to be a challenge to consistently move the ball on the ground against Georgia.

Tennessee, with an offensive line filled with former four- and five-star recruits, got some notoriety after rushing for 235 yards against Missouri. The Vols carried 27 times for minus-1 yard against the Bulldogs.

Georgia has mastered big-play prevention, allowing two plays of 30+ yards through three games. When Tennessee hit Josh Palmer downfield for some first-half throws, the Bulldogs shifted to prevent those in the second half. Expect a similar approach against Alabama’s explosive pass offense.

Believe it or not, Ole Miss played to take away long passing plays against Alabama. Jones (28 of 32 for 417 yards) seemed fine with that, other than one dropped pass from John Metchie III and one instance where the pass rush nearly forced an interception.

It’s up to Jones to continue his pinpoint accuracy. Expect more throws to Harris and Miller Forristall. Jones should lean on RPOs and timing routes to his fast receivers while sliding in the pocket to avoid pressure. Alabama may even need Jones to scramble for the occasional first down.

It’s all about precision and decision-making in this matchup.

Jones has not faced a defense like Georgia’s. Still, through three games, he’s sporting a passer rating of 220.4. For context, no college quarterback had ever produced a 200 rating until Joe Burrow last season (202.0).

Georgia’s defense seems more like a boa constrictor at times due to all of its five-star talent. But overlook the high-level execution and the Bulldogs play a particularly potent bend, don’t break style.

If Jones can exhibit patience, avoid mistakes and get the ball to Alabama’s playmakers on shorter routes, the Tide will be able to grind down the field.

Do that effectively enough and Alabama will hoist the outcome of the game onto the shoulders of former Georgia walk-on Stetson Bennett IV.

Here’s how Georgia’s offense has succeeded

Speaking of Bennett IV, he’s been a nice fit for Georgia this season.

He doesn’t wow you with downfield darts, but he doesn’t make critical errors. That has been plenty good enough with Georgia’s typical talent advantage.

Although Georgia’s offensive line bullied Auburn, that unit lost a lot after last season, including position coach Sam Pittman. James Cook did not play against Tennessee due to injury and starter Zamir White rushed 22 times for just 50 yards.

Receiver George Pickens, playing like one of the best in the SEC near the end of last season, has been more of a decoy. Georgia hasn’t looked to press the ball deep downfield to Pickens with Bennett IV at quarterback.

Opponents haven’t been challenging Alabama cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Josh Jobe all that much anyway. And why should they? Alabama’s linebackers, safeties and nickelbacks have not been able to get the job done across the middle against running backs, tight ends and slot receivers.

Starting safety Jordan Battle will miss the first half due to a targeting penalty at Ole Miss, and the Tide rotated some other members of the secondary in the second half of that game.

Slot receiver Kearis Jackson has been Georgia’s most productive skill player, catching 19 passes for 300 yards. Don’t overlook tight end Tre' McKitty, who returned from injury to catch two balls for 47 yards against Tennessee.

Jackson and McKitty fit the mold of the players that Bama’s defense has struggled to contain so far this season.

Perhaps reluctantly, Kirby Smart also has taken a half-step toward operating with more tempo under new coordinator Todd Monken. Despite playing with big leads in the second half every game this season, Georgia is running a play every 25.9 seconds on offense, which is middle of the pack and slightly faster than Alabama.

With the way that Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin exposed Alabama’s defense with tempo on Saturday, expect to see Georgia mix at least a little tempo into their play-calling as well.

Georgia’s slow starts could mean trouble

The Bulldogs have been excellent at halftime adjustments, a tribute to their coaching staff.

Georgia also trailed Arkansas 7-5 and trailed Tennessee 21-17 at halftime. It could be trouble for Bulldogs fans if that happens Saturday.

Alabama would love to build a halftime lead and pressure Bennett IV to beat Surtain II and Jobe downfield.

Georgia would love to build its own halftime lead, be able to run the ball successfully and make Alabama’s offense impatient.

Betting analysis and pick

I bet Georgia +7 on Sunday when the line opened. I think the line should be Alabama -5 and I’d pass at the current number.

The Tide are playing at home, and there are no weaknesses to Alabama’s pass offense. The Crimson Tide even seem to be playing well in the kicking game.

Bennett IV is a fine player and the Georgia running game isn’t bad. But Alabama deserves to be a relatively small favorite because of unanswered questions there.

However, I’d be surprised if the outcome is decided prior to the last few possessions in the fourth quarter.
 
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