| FTBL I so hope this guy gets egg on his face … but unfortunately for that to happen it’s going to take a lot of eggs being broken.

[Davestwin]

We all know Bama needs a lot of help to make the playoffs this year. That’s especially true since it seems apparent the powers that be are hell bent on keeping them out. Of course, Bama hasn’t been doing itself any favors either. As Tide fans, we are ecstatic over the 4th and 31 victory over the tiggers but the rest of the nation only sees the Tide needed a last second miracle to beat a five loss team. Both the AP and the Coaches Polls now rank Bama as the fourth one loss team. If the Committee pretty much follows suit l, which they have so far, then Bama has to beat the pups and hope for another 4th and 31 type of miracle in the other games as well. According to the haters, Bama’s loss to Texas at home by double digits is not the only knock against Bama … they also had a number of bad wins. Plus they’re not in the top 10 in total offense (49) or defense (17). All that being said, you can throw out the past assurance of a one loss SEC champ getting a spot.

So, who would bet their house payment on Bama making the playoffs this season even if they beat UGA? If you would what scenarios are you basing that bet upon ie OSU beating Texas, Washington beating Oregon, etc.



SPORTSBOOK
REVIEW

Shane Jackson


College Football Playoff odds 2024: Fade

Alabama (+170 via Caesars)

Hand up, I'm rooting against Alabama making the final four-team CFP. Once this format expands, it's highly unlikely the Crimson Tide ever miss the dance. So, this is our last real chance to root against the Death Star.

That said, this isn't a good price for a Crimson Tide team that will need a lot of help. First off, Alabama needs to defeat Georgia in the SEC title game, because no two-loss team has ever qualified for the CFP. The Bulldogs have won 28 straight games so that's certainly no easy feat.

Secondly, Alabama lost to Texas in a head-to-head meeting. If the Longhorns need help to get in, then we know the Crimson Tide need even more assistance.

Alabama's CFP odds began trending up in October, going from +700 to +450 to +260. But the school has now gone from +155 to +170 in November, illustrating the difficult path the Crimson Tide need to navigate to actually reach the playoffs.

 

[bamascw]

There are so many scenarios that would put Alabama into the playoffs. Probably the most difficult road is we beat Georgia in a close game where Georgia plays poorly and turns the ball over multiple times, and everyone else ahead of us wins out. I think Oregon beats Washington, the Washington has not played very well the last two or three games, I’ve watched their last two games and have not been impressed. I watched the first half of the Florida State game yesterday, and I feel like Louisville will beat Florida State if that is what Florida State plays like come Saturday, I think the committee is looking for a reason to knock Florida state out as well.

I know Ohio State is ranked ahead of us, but I don’t see them posing any problems for us because if we beat Georgia, they will not keep Ohio State above us when we won our conference. I think the best scenario for us to get in is we beat Georgia by at least 10 points and Georgia does not play poorly at all, we must hit on all cylinders, if that happens, I think we get in above Texas because one of the caveat is the four best teams at this point of the season not the four best teams in week two

 

[bamanc50]

The elephant in the room (no pun intended) for the SEC Championship game Saturday are the …..REFS….After watching that debacle at JH who knows what will happen. Many seem to think Bama beating Georgia their in. My thought, this will just give the CFP committee the opportunity to keep the SEC out of the playoffs.

 

[Crtuneman]

I have said this before and I will say it again. If Bama didn't want to be having this conversation then they should not have let Texas come in to BDS and punk their butts. College football is the only sport in the land where you have to win every single game to have a chance at a championship. In most other sports a team that is barely above 500 can win a title. But in the NCAA Div I you have to be perfect. All it takes is one loss and you no longer control your own fate. I would love to see Bama get another shot at a title. But they have not looked like a championship team yet. Are they better than Michigan, Georgia, Oregon and Texas? I don't know. I do think they are better than FSU and Washington. That's just my two cents.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

SEC champion...and not in cfp....

Exactly what the fear of the fans about the " committee" and sec bias


But all those 1 loss teams and No Conference championship...would fall below a 1 loss team and a conference cc.... Texas and uga are the only obstacles...

 

[BamaFan334]

I have said this before and I will say it again. If Bama didn't want to be having this conversation then they should not have let Texas come in to BDS and punk their butts. College football is the only sport in the land where you have to win every single game to have a chance at a championship. In most other sports a team that is barely above 500 can win a title. But in the NCAA Div I you have to be perfect. All it takes is one loss and you no longer control your own fate. I would love to see Bama get another shot at a title. But they have not looked like a championship team yet. Are they better than Michigan, Georgia, Oregon and Texas? I don't know. I do think they are better than FSU and Washington. That's just my two cents.

I think we would smack Michigan, Florida State, Washington, and Texas. Georgia and Oregon, not so sure about.

 

[bamafan9201]

Here's the problem. The committee will tip their hand this week. The problem being, they've said multiple times they don't care about SOS and SOR, they've said their focus is on wins. Now that Ohio State got a loss and Bama got a win, we should be ahead of them but I doubt it. They seem to swap their metric for rankings every week this year and have no consistency or good reasoning for their decisions. Much like the officiating Saturday, it's lazy.

I have said for weeks we aren't getting in without help from some losses above us, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen now. The only hope we have left is that OKST and Louisville find a way to win and Bama beats Georgia like a drum. I don't see either of these 3 things happening. OKST is limping into their championship game with come-from-behind wins in back to back weeks against bad teams. Louisville just got housed by Kentucky, I know it's a rivalry game but Louisivlle all year is the same as FSU, they're smoke and mirrors, neither team would escape the SEC without 4-5 losses. I also think if we beat Georgia it will likely be by a slim margin. It was a good year, the bias against the SEC is real this year. Outside of Georgia they're not putting anyone in unless they are undefeated.

 

[252BAMA]

Here's the problem. The committee will tip their hand this week. The problem being, they've said multiple times they don't care about SOS and SOR, they've said their focus is on wins. Now that Ohio State got a loss and Bama got a win, we should be ahead of them but I doubt it. They seem to swap their metric for rankings every week this year and have no consistency or good reasoning for their decisions. Much like the officiating Saturday, it's lazy.

I have said for weeks we aren't getting in without help from some losses above us, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen now. The only hope we have left is that OKST and Louisville find a way to win and Bama beats Georgia like a drum. I don't see either of these 3 things happening. OKST is limping into their championship game with come-from-behind wins in back to back weeks against bad teams. Louisville just got housed by Kentucky, I know it's a rivalry game but Louisivlle all year is the same as FSU, they're smoke and mirrors, neither team would escape the SEC without 4-5 losses. I also think if we beat Georgia it will likely be by a slim margin. It was a good year, the bias against the SEC is real this year. Outside of Georgia they're not putting anyone in unless they are undefeated.

Benson will run all over Louisville. Just like Davis did.

 

[BamaFan334]

Here's the problem. The committee will tip their hand this week. The problem being, they've said multiple times they don't care about SOS and SOR, they've said their focus is on wins. Now that Ohio State got a loss and Bama got a win, we should be ahead of them but I doubt it. They seem to swap their metric for rankings every week this year and have no consistency or good reasoning for their decisions. Much like the officiating Saturday, it's lazy.

I have said for weeks we aren't getting in without help from some losses above us, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen now. The only hope we have left is that OKST and Louisville find a way to win and Bama beats Georgia like a drum. I don't see either of these 3 things happening. OKST is limping into their championship game with come-from-behind wins in back to back weeks against bad teams. Louisville just got housed by Kentucky, I know it's a rivalry game but Louisivlle all year is the same as FSU, they're smoke and mirrors, neither team would escape the SEC without 4-5 losses. I also think if we beat Georgia it will likely be by a slim margin. It was a good year, the bias against the SEC is real this year. Outside of Georgia they're not putting anyone in unless they are undefeated.

I think we need Washington to beat Oregon. That essentially gives Michigan and Washington two spots. If we can beat Georgia I think we trade places with them and we are in and they are out. Then I think it's a fight between Florida State, Texas, and Ohio State for the last spot. Ohio State should not even be considered as they are the only team in the Top 8 not in a Conference Championship, and the game between them and Michigan was a shitty game, to me atleast.

I do not think Washington can beat Oregon again. It's a tough ask to beat a team twice, but Oregon is peaking at the right time as well. While I think we are a better team than Washington, you have to wonder if their loss or our loss was better and if our biggest win was better than theirs. I have to think our win would be better if we beat Georgia, and our losses are as identical as you could get. Between Texas and Florida State I'd have to choose Texas.

If Alabama beats Georgia...

1. Michigan
2. Washington/Oregon
3. Alabama
4. Texas

 

[bamafan9201]

I think we need Washington to beat Oregon. That essentially gives Michigan and Washington two spots. If we can beat Georgia I think we trade places with them and we are in and they are out. Then I think it's a fight between Florida State, Texas, and Ohio State for the last spot. Ohio State should not even be considered as they are the only team in the Top 8 not in a Conference Championship, and the game between them and Michigan was a shitty game, to me atleast.

I do not think Washington can beat Oregon again. It's a tough ask to beat a team twice, but Oregon is peaking at the right time as well. While I think we are a better team than Washington, you have to wonder if their loss or our loss was better and if our biggest win was better than theirs. I have to think our win would be better if we beat Georgia, and our losses are as identical as you could get. Between Texas and Florida State I'd have to choose Texas.

If Alabama beats Georgia...

1. Michigan
2. Washington/Oregon
3. Alabama
4. Texas

Here's the problem or rub with this thought, what happens if FSU beats Louisville, Texas Wins, and Washington/Michigan win? Then it's likely

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. FSU
4. Texas
5. Bama

That's the major issue, we STILL need FSU or Texas to lose in that situation to have a chance to be in. The committee has already said Texas is ahead of us if they keep winning and FSU will be undefeated and is currently ahead of us as well.

 

[BamaFan334]

Here's the problem or rub with this thought, what happens if FSU beats Louisville, Texas Wins, and Washington/Michigan win? Then it's likely

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. FSU
4. Texas
5. Bama

That's the major issue, we STILL need FSU or Texas to lose in that situation to have a chance to be in. The committee has already said Texas is ahead of us if they keep winning and FSU will be undefeated and is currently ahead of us as well.

I guess I'm just hoping our win and their loss at quarterback affects Florida State adversely. Conventional wisdom has to believe that even if they go undefeated, the SEC is tougher and the one loss is against the Texas team in between the two. Sounds crazy and wishful, and probably is, ha ha.

 

[Cavedaddy48]

Here's the problem. The committee will tip their hand this week. The problem being, they've said multiple times they don't care about SOS and SOR, they've said their focus is on wins. Now that Ohio State got a loss and Bama got a win, we should be ahead of them but I doubt it. They seem to swap their metric for rankings every week this year and have no consistency or good reasoning for their decisions. Much like the officiating Saturday, it's lazy.

I have said for weeks we aren't getting in without help from some losses above us, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen now. The only hope we have left is that OKST and Louisville find a way to win and Bama beats Georgia like a drum. I don't see either of these 3 things happening. OKST is limping into their championship game with come-from-behind wins in back to back weeks against bad teams. Louisville just got housed by Kentucky, I know it's a rivalry game but Louisivlle all year is the same as FSU, they're smoke and mirrors, neither team would escape the SEC without 4-5 losses. I also think if we beat Georgia it will likely be by a slim margin. It was a good year, the bias against the SEC is real this year. Outside of Georgia they're not putting anyone in unless they are undefeated.

Precisely! The introduction of the “committee” was a big flaw with the CFP in my opinion. Their “why” for their selections changed regularly, rankings were often inexplicable, and in the first 2 years you would see them rank undeserving teams ahead of other teams CLEARLY in hopes that parody would follow.

The CFP should have been introduced while keeping the BCS Formula (which surprisingly closely aligns with the committee currently) as it had the “human element”+”computer element”. With next-gen stats and data analytics of today, the “computer element” could be even more accurate.

 

[PurlJam]

If FSU makes it (which is a high probability playing Louisville). They will get skull drug like TCU last year, IMO

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

The 2 best teams right now are UGA and Bama... Michigan right behind them with Oregon. Then Texas and Washington. That won't be how it ends up obviously, but as of today, IMO, that how they fall from best on down. Kinda fitting that the SEC Championship is basically the best matchup of the playoffs... as usual.

 

[bamafan9201]

If FSU makes it (which is a high probability playing Louisville). They will get skull drug like TCU last year, IMO

I have no doubt, but it hurts us if they're let in.

 

[Davestwin]

Playoffs aside, make sure to remember while watching the game Saturday that the second dumbest college football pundit behind Cowturd boasted:

Danny Kanell
@dannykanell
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Georgia is gonna boat race Bama next week. Thankfully I snatched up UGa -4.
7:00 PM · Nov 25, 2023
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If Bama wins I hope we all take the time to deluge Candy Kanell and Cowturd too with our condolences. I still find it hard to believe he was man enough to play college football. By all appearances it seems he has gender identity issues.

 

[It Takes Eleven]

I'll pile on. I'll call my score on this thread, and the official one when it spawns, as 34-23 UGA. I just don't think we have the DL, or the offensive HP, to stay. I'm usually a homer, and I'll happily wallow in crow if wrong, but I don't think we get it done. Roll Tide.

 

[Davestwin]

SEC champion...and not in cfp....

Exactly what the fear of the fans about the " committee" and sec bias


But all those 1 loss teams and No Conference championship...would fall below a 1 loss team and a conference cc.... Texas and uga are the only obstacles...

I hope you’re right but that’s not how the voting plays out thus far. The winner of Oregon v Washington is in and unless Michigan loses their top four QB’s and their O-line, they’re in. If FSU wins all indications are they will get in before Bama even without their QB. As you correctly state if Texas wins they will be ahead of Bama and rightly so in my opinion. They beat Bama by double digits at home. That has to weigh more strength of schedule. If Bama beats the pups they should move ahead of an idle OSU. The way I see it, Bama’s most realistic scenario to get in is of course them beating the pups, Louisville beating FSU. So, I don’t think UGA and Texas are the only obstacles. I think there’s a third and it’s FSU.

What happens if Bama, Texas, FSU, Michigan and Washington win? Bama plays in a New Year’s Six bowl. If you love chaos, what happens if all the favorites lose? That would be a hoot! You’d have to have a phD in Chinese arithmetic to figure out the four playoff teams and their order. If so, Bama could end up as the top seed and the pups could be the second SEC team … which is the very thing the haters have lobbied hard all season to prevent!

 

[mando]

Unfortunately with the Tx loss and how we played early we have put ourselves in this spot. At this point our biggest hurdle is beating UGA. Lets take care of what we can take care of and that is prepare well and play well on Saturday.

 

[BamaFan334]

I'll pile on. I'll call my score on this thread, and the official one when it spawns, as 34-23 UGA. I just don't think we have the DL, or the offensive HP, to stay. I'm usually a homer, and I'll happily wallow in crow if wrong, but I don't think we get it done. Roll Tide.

Deep down I agree. With Beck's quick release and our issues over the middle, I just think we'll be chasing all day long. Once they get going it is very difficult to stick with them. Us scoring first or tting it up early won't mean much as they flex their muscles in the second half. I hope I am wrong and our guys play to their abikity and flex their own muscles, but I am not very high on our ability to pull this thing off. If they allow Milroe to be an athlete like against LSU, we can win. If we hold him back like the Auburn game where he looked indecisive and slow, I think we get drilled worse than the Texas game.