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Allstate Sugar Bowl (playoff semifinal)
New Orleans, LA
Alabama (-3) vs Clemson
January 1, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN)
Alabama simply hasn't been as terrifying in 2017 as in recent years, even while going 11-1 in the regular season. While S&P+ still loves their performances, FEI is more lukewarm and likes Clemson here. Alabama's victories have all been a touch less overwhelming than normal, and it's not hard to point at reasons for their relative struggles. The offense was retooled to be more pro style, which didn't suit sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts particularly well, especially in comparison to the spread-option attack he was running a year ago under then-offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. The offense is still effective and loaded with athletes like wide receiver Calvin Ridley (896 receiving yards), running back Damien Williams (906 rushing yards), or Hurts himself (880 rushing yards). The offensive line is also about as good as most of the other great lines Alabama has put on the field this decade.
The Clemson defense will be a major test for them. The Tigers are loaded up front with three defensive linemen with 10 run stuffs, and then big nose tackle Dexter Lawrence manning the middle and absorbing double-teams for the benefit of the Clemson linebackers. The Tigers also have multiple run-stuffing safeties; at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, Tanner Muse often drops down like an extra linebacker near the box. They're always very well coordinated on game days and will easily sniff out Alabama's tendency towards running the ball or having Hurts look for Ridley before scrambling. They'll load the box on standard downs, play with contain on the edge, and spy Hurts when he tries to escape the pocket.
On the other side of the ball, the Clemson offense will likely struggle in their own right against the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide don't have what they normally have, an All-American or All-SEC inside linebacker, but they do have a trio of excellent safeties led by Thorpe-winning Minkah Fitzpatrick. They also have yet another sturdy defensive line, but lack a single great pass-rusher, whereas last year they had three up front. They lean on Rashaan Evans to be both their main inside linebacker and their best pass-rusher, so teams that can keep tabs on him and control him can limit what Alabama can do. However, it's hard to generate big gains against the Alabama defense due to the excellent tackling of their safeties.
Clemson did a lot of their damage this year by getting the ball on the perimeter to burners like running back Travis Etienne (744 rushing yards, 7.2 yards per carry) or receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (542 receiving yards). They can also attack coverage with ultra-shifty slot receiver and two-time Alabama killer Hunter Renfrow or big outside target Deon Cain (659 receiving yards). Quarterback Kelly Bryant is as strong a runner as his predecessor Deshaun Watson, but he's not nearly as good in the dropback passing game. The Clemson offense now relies more on option plays and working the ball down the field rather than picking it up in chunks.
In a close, defensive battle, it's not obvious which team would hold the advantage, but Alabama is generally very good at avoiding turnovers and ranks much higher in special teams. They may hold the overall advantage unless their offense is totally swamped by the Clemson defense.
S&P+ Outright Pick: Alabama
New Orleans, LA
Alabama (-3) vs Clemson
January 1, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN)
The Clemson defense will be a major test for them. The Tigers are loaded up front with three defensive linemen with 10 run stuffs, and then big nose tackle Dexter Lawrence manning the middle and absorbing double-teams for the benefit of the Clemson linebackers. The Tigers also have multiple run-stuffing safeties; at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, Tanner Muse often drops down like an extra linebacker near the box. They're always very well coordinated on game days and will easily sniff out Alabama's tendency towards running the ball or having Hurts look for Ridley before scrambling. They'll load the box on standard downs, play with contain on the edge, and spy Hurts when he tries to escape the pocket.
On the other side of the ball, the Clemson offense will likely struggle in their own right against the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide don't have what they normally have, an All-American or All-SEC inside linebacker, but they do have a trio of excellent safeties led by Thorpe-winning Minkah Fitzpatrick. They also have yet another sturdy defensive line, but lack a single great pass-rusher, whereas last year they had three up front. They lean on Rashaan Evans to be both their main inside linebacker and their best pass-rusher, so teams that can keep tabs on him and control him can limit what Alabama can do. However, it's hard to generate big gains against the Alabama defense due to the excellent tackling of their safeties.
Clemson did a lot of their damage this year by getting the ball on the perimeter to burners like running back Travis Etienne (744 rushing yards, 7.2 yards per carry) or receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (542 receiving yards). They can also attack coverage with ultra-shifty slot receiver and two-time Alabama killer Hunter Renfrow or big outside target Deon Cain (659 receiving yards). Quarterback Kelly Bryant is as strong a runner as his predecessor Deshaun Watson, but he's not nearly as good in the dropback passing game. The Clemson offense now relies more on option plays and working the ball down the field rather than picking it up in chunks.
In a close, defensive battle, it's not obvious which team would hold the advantage, but Alabama is generally very good at avoiding turnovers and ranks much higher in special teams. They may hold the overall advantage unless their offense is totally swamped by the Clemson defense.
S&P+ Outright Pick: Alabama
