🏈 Early thoughts on 2009 schedule

[Guest]

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When I consider the difficulty of a schedule I consider the strength of the team first, the location second, and then an unclear mix of other factors later which includes the preceding game, weeks off, depth within the schedule, coaching changes, and Nick Saban's $4million salary :wink: .

That said, here are LBS' early impressions.

Virginia Tech is an unknown to me. Solid program (by ACC standards), good coaching (good enough to have mentioned in our past coaching searches), big following (they will sell out their half of the GA Dome), and all spring and summer to make a splash in planning for the Tide. Granted, CNS showed that he sets the standard for coming out hot (Right, Clemson?), so both should be ready. This will be a big test for the new OL and our new QB, but I would be surprised if the staff does not have them ready as can be. THIS is going to be a good one for College Football Fans...a nervous one for those in T-Town and Blacksburg.

The rest of September looks favorable. All home games, starting with a couple of beatable teams to get us ready for the HOGS. Thats is set up well for success. So if we come out of the Dome with a win (which I'm thinking we will), we should enter October 4-0 and in the Top 3 easily.

Off to Lexington. Ask LSU if this is not place to be respected. I could have sworn Verne Lundquist already said the Tide was in danger because they are already looking ahead to the following week. Let me just say that I am glad that CNS is the guy driving this bus because the CATS will be sky high. Think about what this would do for their program. Considering the highlights that LSU and UK have put up in the past, if it is a slow week ESPN GAMEDAY could be showing up at this one (when else will they make it to Lexington?). FOCUS.

If Game Day is not in Lexington, they will be in Oxford. This is a huge game for Ole Miss, thus for us. I have to see the Rebels, LSU, and us reshuffling the SECW ranks and this game will have significant impact on IF Mississippi will be seen as just a solid team or as being the real McCoy. This game may see the best two squads on the field at the same time since the days of Manning -- and I ain't talking Eli. A good showing for the Rebs in this one and the state of Mississippi and the city of Memphis may become a more difficult place to recruit.

South Carolina has not impressed me as a team that threatens to get over the hump. Can they beat us, Yes...but then again "On any given Saturday...". By this time, I'm wondering what the injury picture for us looks like and how it will be impacting us on the field. But on the flip side, the home crown should be getting into the swing of things under CNS' "shaping as well.

Tennessee is in a spot here. Seven games into the new system, they have played enough to have everyone know what they are trying to do, but have not played enough to be automatic about it. The same can not be said about of Defense = bad for UT's Offense. However, I'm hoping that our OL has gelled enough by this point to handle Monte's plan. At worst, I see the home field advantage being the difference.

OPEN the following week can be tricky for some (note: Auburn had "OPEN" after the Bama game in 2008 and he was Fired after that Saturday. :lol: ) I like this location for facing the FIGHTING BUMPS AND BRUISES of OPEN UNIVERSITY, with it being after a 3-game SEC run and before SECW foe LSU. (BTW, I thing CNS keeps his job. )

LSU in Tuscaloosa. BAMA wins. So, is it too early to start the talk of "Who should replace Les Miles?" thread? If not, I hear Tommy Tubberville may be rested and ready...or maybe Turner Gill gets the call finally.

MSU. I like State too much (little brother thing) to go on with the details.

UT-Chatt. Didn't they barely beat OPEN is double overtime? Great game to have before Auburn, if OPEN was already schedule for.

AUBURN. EMOTION gets the Tigers through the first quarter. BELIEVING gets them through the first 5 minutes of the third quarters. LEE COUNTY AMBULANCE SERVICE will get them to where ever they are going after Bama beats them. The Barners may be so mad that they may roll Tumors Corner out of spite, AND ask the Bama fans to join.

Bottom Line. Every game is winnable, but how it will shape up...we'll see.


What is your take on the season?

 

[TerryP]

A lot like yours.

I've started putting together a piece for the blog I'll publish in January and will be along the same lines as this one to start ( LINK ) and put that in context with how the season starts off and ends up.

You remember, last year about this time everyone was talking about how difficult this years schedule was going to be? I kept pointing to things (like what I discussed in that linked article) and said, "I don't think it is going to be that difficult."

At worst, I see 10-2 in '09. Right now, I'd say that Ole Miss is the game that determines the West winner...not because it'll be an outright "a win seals the West" but I see Ole Miss being #2 in the West next season. That might change depending on what LSU does with its defensive coaching staff. But, that said, I haven't seen a LSU defense that has stopped the Nutt offense in two years so it's suspect.

Games that'll deserve a deeper look pre-season '09: Va Tech, Ole Miss, LSU and UK. On that bubble is Arkansas.

AU, UT and USCjr still have issues, big issues. Just to name one, competent play from the QB position.

MSU is still going to be 2-3 years down the road from "watching."

 

[Guest]

nice write up.

i was looking at the schedule the other day wondering the same thing. i will tell you this, i feel a whole lot better about going into next years schedule than i did about coming into this years schedule.

 

[Guest]

Games that'll deserve a deeper look pre-season '09: Va Tech, Ole Miss, LSU and UK. On that bubble is Arkansas.

"

is kentucky suppose to be pretty good next year?

 

[TerryP]

Games that'll deserve a deeper look pre-season '09: Va Tech, Ole Miss, LSU and UK. On that bubble is Arkansas.

"

is kentucky suppose to be pretty good next year?

UK is a combination of when we catch them on the schedule and their veterans returning.

When we faced them this past season they were beginning to get hit with the injury bug and it just continued from there on out. They would have had a lot better season if they hadn't dealt with the injuries they sustained.

They do lose some seniors on defense, but their backups are upperclassmen as well. Just as an example, their DL looks to be Sr., Sr., Jr., Soph. On offense they look to return 10 or 11 starters, and the one senior leaving is being replaced by a Jr. (will be Sr. next season)

Right now, I'd put UK and USCjr to be the two teams to fight it out for 3rd place in the East. But, there isn't much of a difference in 3rd through 6th place in the East next year.

UK: 8-4 at best. Losses to UGA, UF, Bama and at least one of the other East teams, if not two meaning they'll finish at 7-5.

As of right now, I see a very, very good chance all 6 of the East teams will be bowling in the post-season of '09. All 6 should have this season and would have if UT would have shown up for Wyoming.

 

[Guest]

A lot like yours.

I've started putting together a piece for the blog I'll publish in January and will be along the same lines as this one to start ( LINK ) and put that in context with how the season starts off and ends up.

You remember, last year about this time everyone was talking about how difficult this years schedule was going to be? I kept pointing to things (like what I discussed in that linked article) and said,

At worst, I see 10-2 in '09. Right now, I'd say that Ole Miss is the game that determines the West winner...not because it'll be an outright "a win seals the West" but I see Ole Miss being #2 in the West next season. That might change depending on what LSU does with its defensive coaching staff. But, that said, I haven't seen a LSU defense that has stopped the Nutt offense in two years so it's suspect.

Games that'll deserve a deeper look pre-season '09: Va Tech, Ole Miss, LSU and UK. On that bubble is Arkansas.

AU, UT and USCjr still have issues, big issues. Just to name one, competent play from the QB position.

MSU is still going to be 2-3 years down the road from "watching."

1. I really appreciate you posting the work you do here on this site. I know I'm not alone.

2. Its good to be at this point, but I don't think predicting 10-2 is going that far out on a limb. I suspect anyone predicting less than 10 will be met with a call to name those losses. But who knows, STUFF happens.

3. To me, I still see LSU with talent. If they can get solid QB play I can't see the Defense being so bad that challenging for the West would not be a possibility.

4. Do you think the Hogs have the personnel and enough time in the new system to be a threat. My gut tells me that they are a year away.

 

[HIGHTIDES]

Depending on how things shape up throughout the year, we should be favored in just about every game next year. The Ole Miss game will be the big one. They are gonna be stacked and should have some true freshmen that can contribute as well. LSU is the big question IMO. I think they're still gonna run into some questions at the qb position. If they don't start Jefferson from day 1, I think they are in for a long season. They also need to figure out what to do with their defense. We have them at home this year and we have the talent to at least keep it close. With that in mind, the game is ours, as Les Miles will blow it. Arkansas is not going to be a threat next year IMO. They will be better than they are this year, but still won't have the defense to make a run in the SEC. Our defense however will be too much for them. Kentucky is the nailbiter next year. As stated, the timing and who they have returning. The difference will be that we will have the best depth we've had in YEARS.

It'll be tough to go undefeated next year, but it's going to be very tough to score on this defense as well. Throw in the fact that we are back home next year, we should be in the SEC championship next year.

I'm actually not worried about Virginia Tech. Bud Foster is an INCREDIBLE defensive coordinator but they ended up looking much better due to poor offensive play and uncalled for turnovers ("Beamer ball" as they call it). They lose Sturdivant, Victor Harris and few other key players, but Worilds will be a senior and that guy will be one of the top DE's in the country. Then there's guys like Cody Grimm who are great linebackers.... in the ACC. He would not be as impressive against SEC running backs. Coffee, Ingram, Richardson will have their way with him (he's more impressive as a rusher anyway). They should have one of the top pass rushing defenses in the country so this will be a test for our offensive line. McElroy won't have to win this game. If he can eliminate turnovers we will be fine.

 

[TerryP]

1. I really appreciate you posting the work you do here on this site. I know I'm not alone.

2. Its good to be at this point, but I don't think predicting 10-2 is going that far out on a limb. I suspect anyone predicting less than 10 will be met with a call to name those losses. But who knows, STUFF happens.

3. To me, I still see LSU with talent. If they can get solid QB play I can't see the Defense being so bad that challenging for the West would not be a possibility.

4. Do you think the Hogs have the personnel and enough time in the new system to be a threat. My gut tells me that they are a year away.

Thanks for the kind words...I'm just having fun being a fan and it keeps me from concentrating too hard on work.

I'm saying at the worst two...from the group I listed as those "important" games in the earlier post. That said, we could easily be undefeated going into ATL to face Florida again.

I don't disagree with the LSU talent standpoint. But, we saw where they tried to "out-talent" some on their defensive side of the ball this season and it didn't work out. I still respect the talent they have, don't get me wrong. But, that said, the 7 losses they suffered this year could have been suffered in '07 as well. Like we've all said, for a team to convert that high of a percentage of 4th downs, at crucial times on top of that, isn't something that is a commonplace in any level of football.

Arkansas. Depends on how their QB situation works itself out. I'm thinking Mallet ends up winning over the younger Dick brother, but it's going to take some time for him to adjust as well. They still need some WR's to mature and step up, will have some holes to patch on the offensive line to fill (losing their two best,) but should be better on defense.

Just right now, and we'll get more into looking at them after spring camp, during the summer, etc., but I'd call the West coming down to

Bama
Ole Miss
LSU and Arkansas battle for 3rd
Auburn and Mississippi State battle for 5th.

 

[BamaGradinTN]

I would predict 11-1, maybe 10-2 if we don't show up in Atlanta ready for VT. I just don't think Kentucky has the talent. Ole Miss will be the toughest game. Tennessee has zero players who could start for us on offense. And as for Les Miles...if we get Reuben Randle, Miles might not even make it to spring practice.

Our defense will be even better. After watching Mark Barron hit on kickoff coverage this year, he will be more than adequate to replace Rashad. We'll miss Greenwood, but we'll have depth on the DL. Could be a better defense than 92. Maybe the best interior LB combo in the country, and we already know we have the best NT in the country.

Actually, I'd predict 12-0, but my head tells me that without an experienced QB, that's a bit overly optimistic.

 

[AlabamaAubKiller]

Realistically....i don't see any loss on the schedule. Not one.

this past year i picked us preseason....11-1 with only one regular season loss. Georgia. thankfully i was wrong. (i do not pick post season during preseason. ever.)

on the other hand i picked Aubz to go....8-4. Losing to WV, Bama, Georgia,& LSU.

2007 picked Bama 10-2.
Aubz...8-4. Which i got right. Even had the Miss St. pick right. didn't see the s. fl loss.

I always do pre-season aub picks just to anoy the aubz i know. most of who are really hating me right now.

by the schedule alone......not taking into acount any other factors. we can and should run the table. Preseason poles mean squat.....but taking into account we'll preseason in the top 5....NC run is doable.