The following is a post I was holding off on, hoping to never even submit. Side note: I tend to do that a lot... no telling how many thoughts and opinions I've sent into the internet trash shredder over the years. Sometimes typing them out is good therapy and helps me think through certain things. Sometimes I probably post things that would have been better left to the shredder. A few times, I've sent things to the shredder that I later regretted, and wished I had posted. Anyway, all this talk about DeBoer and his buyout keeps burning like a landfill fire... the smoke lingering, the fire itself unlikely to be extinguished for some time. I know emotions over the whole thing are high and many fans just want a hard reset. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. And while there is (at least in my opinion) a world where DeBoer gets this figured out and finds himself and his team back on solid ground in the near future, I'll admit that things at least appear bleak at best right now. As far as this season goes anyway. But to clear up what I see as some narrowed, emotional looks at the situation, this is my attempt to offer what I think is most likely, realistically, to happen if things don't miraculously improve. [Apologies in advance for the length]
Alabama paying $70 million to get rid of a head coach in year 2. Just typing that feels weird, while saying it out loud forces a chuckle. Hold up though, it isn't just $70 million. It's also buying out the current staff. And, I guess UA would probably need to bring in a new head coach at that point too. Fans would be even more irate if they pulled someone off the trash heap like Will Muschamp or Pat Fitzgerald, so better find several more million in the cushions to buyout a current coordinator or assistant. Even then, I seriously doubt Mr. New Guy is going to want to do it all himself, so yep... gonna need to raise some more money to put together a staff again. All this spending, while keeping in mind UA operated in the red last year... again, thank you buyouts (including a whopping $12 million to free DeBoer from UW)! Hope the new guy works out incredibly well like Bryant and Saban did. Or in other words, like less than 5% of the SEC coaches have in recent history have!
Let's assume for a minute things get worse as the season goes along, this would be the best and most realistic course of action (IMO)... Send Wommack, Roach, and Robinson packing. Hire a new DC, hopefully a proven guy. Work with him to replace the 2 other open spots. I'd probably reassign Morrell back to an off the field spot (which is technically still an on the field spot) and replace his position too. Jason Jones wouldn't be safe, but I'd be open to keeping him. I'd like to keep Linguist if at all possible. On the offensive side, a new OL coach is needed (Huff possibly?). While things can change, I'd take a serious look at the special teams staffers too.... there's room for improvement there, IMO. Lastly, I personally still have concerns with the job the analysts are doing. I can't shake the idea that the overall unpreparedness of the team might not start with them and their advanced scouting and planning. I don't know if it needs to be turned upside down and new hires made, but at the very least, their jobs and performance need to be looked at closely.
Now, all of that is going to cost a decent chunk of buyout money (for the assistants) plus new hire money, and the new guys coming in would all require 2 year deals (at a minimum). That tradeoff likely means that DeBoer would be safe through the 2027 season. Oh, and they're also gonna need to set aside a good chunk of funds to buy some impact defensive linemen too, which means breaking their own rules and overpaying for talent. But bringing in a new DL coach isn't going to do much good if he doesn't have much to work with... and right now, it looks like he wouldn't. Winning the LOS is way too important to simply leave it up to chance or hope, so they're just gonna need to grin, bear it, and overspend.
Before any of that is done though, a decision must be made if that strategy is just throwing more money at the problem without potentially solving it. If the feeling (after conversations with him) is that DeBoer isn't in it for the long haul and that the pressures and stresses of the UA job have already caused irreversible damage to his motivation, then they just have to let the candle burn until it gets to a point where it is affordable to blow it out. That too, would likely be around 2027, maybe the end of 2026 if things were just completely off the rails and deferred payments were agreed to. Obviously, in that scenario, the hope would be he'd leave for another job which would offset some money, or maybe want out so badly that he offers to negotiate a lower buyout... but I'd file that away under "Wishful Thinking" because when Jimmy Sexton has you by the balls, he goes for the kill. And every cent owed. The buyout in one's contract is one's true worth, and that's why they are high in cases like this, and why they are rarely ever re-negotiated or surrendered when a coach is sent packing (without extra baggage). Lastly, there is one more path, albeit highly unlikely. People in and around DeBoer's circle have stated previously that he would seriously consider the right job in the NFL if the opportunity were to ever arise. If, BIG IF, he can somehow turn things around in the next year or two and get a pro offer he likes? It's a chance for a fresh start and to take on a new challenge while also giving UA a MUCH cheaper and cleaner break on the contract.
Bottom line, yes Alabama and the UA Booster community has money. But both parties are already getting squeezed like juiced oranges these days with things like revenue sharing and collective fundraising. The budget is razor thin from the red to the black. It would be not only a massive financial blow to UA, but also ridiculously irresponsible, basically financial malpractice, to fork over $70 (or 60, or 50) million bucks to buyout DeBoer. And while anger and collective motivation can lead some Fat Wallet Boosters to do some very quick fundraising, that's a mountain that I don't see them able to climb. I'm sure some will point to Texas A&M and their boosters, who paid Jimbo Fisher $77 million to disappear, but the fact is, the deep pockets of the Bama Boys and the A&M Boys run to very different depths. Just for some perspective and comparisons sake, A&M's endowment (which is a decent measure of a school's savings account along with an indication of their booster's generosity) is $23.3 billion. Alabama's is $2.3 billion. To give an idea of that gap, if Texas A&M had Bama's $2.3 billion, then Alabama would be more like Kent State at $300 million. Basically, in conclusion, we are not the same.
In closing, yes, things look bad right now on the surface. But there will be an opportunity to course correct. What Alabama can't afford (literally or figuratively) to do right now, is cut the line.
Alabama paying $70 million to get rid of a head coach in year 2. Just typing that feels weird, while saying it out loud forces a chuckle. Hold up though, it isn't just $70 million. It's also buying out the current staff. And, I guess UA would probably need to bring in a new head coach at that point too. Fans would be even more irate if they pulled someone off the trash heap like Will Muschamp or Pat Fitzgerald, so better find several more million in the cushions to buyout a current coordinator or assistant. Even then, I seriously doubt Mr. New Guy is going to want to do it all himself, so yep... gonna need to raise some more money to put together a staff again. All this spending, while keeping in mind UA operated in the red last year... again, thank you buyouts (including a whopping $12 million to free DeBoer from UW)! Hope the new guy works out incredibly well like Bryant and Saban did. Or in other words, like less than 5% of the SEC coaches have in recent history have!
Let's assume for a minute things get worse as the season goes along, this would be the best and most realistic course of action (IMO)... Send Wommack, Roach, and Robinson packing. Hire a new DC, hopefully a proven guy. Work with him to replace the 2 other open spots. I'd probably reassign Morrell back to an off the field spot (which is technically still an on the field spot) and replace his position too. Jason Jones wouldn't be safe, but I'd be open to keeping him. I'd like to keep Linguist if at all possible. On the offensive side, a new OL coach is needed (Huff possibly?). While things can change, I'd take a serious look at the special teams staffers too.... there's room for improvement there, IMO. Lastly, I personally still have concerns with the job the analysts are doing. I can't shake the idea that the overall unpreparedness of the team might not start with them and their advanced scouting and planning. I don't know if it needs to be turned upside down and new hires made, but at the very least, their jobs and performance need to be looked at closely.
Now, all of that is going to cost a decent chunk of buyout money (for the assistants) plus new hire money, and the new guys coming in would all require 2 year deals (at a minimum). That tradeoff likely means that DeBoer would be safe through the 2027 season. Oh, and they're also gonna need to set aside a good chunk of funds to buy some impact defensive linemen too, which means breaking their own rules and overpaying for talent. But bringing in a new DL coach isn't going to do much good if he doesn't have much to work with... and right now, it looks like he wouldn't. Winning the LOS is way too important to simply leave it up to chance or hope, so they're just gonna need to grin, bear it, and overspend.
Before any of that is done though, a decision must be made if that strategy is just throwing more money at the problem without potentially solving it. If the feeling (after conversations with him) is that DeBoer isn't in it for the long haul and that the pressures and stresses of the UA job have already caused irreversible damage to his motivation, then they just have to let the candle burn until it gets to a point where it is affordable to blow it out. That too, would likely be around 2027, maybe the end of 2026 if things were just completely off the rails and deferred payments were agreed to. Obviously, in that scenario, the hope would be he'd leave for another job which would offset some money, or maybe want out so badly that he offers to negotiate a lower buyout... but I'd file that away under "Wishful Thinking" because when Jimmy Sexton has you by the balls, he goes for the kill. And every cent owed. The buyout in one's contract is one's true worth, and that's why they are high in cases like this, and why they are rarely ever re-negotiated or surrendered when a coach is sent packing (without extra baggage). Lastly, there is one more path, albeit highly unlikely. People in and around DeBoer's circle have stated previously that he would seriously consider the right job in the NFL if the opportunity were to ever arise. If, BIG IF, he can somehow turn things around in the next year or two and get a pro offer he likes? It's a chance for a fresh start and to take on a new challenge while also giving UA a MUCH cheaper and cleaner break on the contract.
Bottom line, yes Alabama and the UA Booster community has money. But both parties are already getting squeezed like juiced oranges these days with things like revenue sharing and collective fundraising. The budget is razor thin from the red to the black. It would be not only a massive financial blow to UA, but also ridiculously irresponsible, basically financial malpractice, to fork over $70 (or 60, or 50) million bucks to buyout DeBoer. And while anger and collective motivation can lead some Fat Wallet Boosters to do some very quick fundraising, that's a mountain that I don't see them able to climb. I'm sure some will point to Texas A&M and their boosters, who paid Jimbo Fisher $77 million to disappear, but the fact is, the deep pockets of the Bama Boys and the A&M Boys run to very different depths. Just for some perspective and comparisons sake, A&M's endowment (which is a decent measure of a school's savings account along with an indication of their booster's generosity) is $23.3 billion. Alabama's is $2.3 billion. To give an idea of that gap, if Texas A&M had Bama's $2.3 billion, then Alabama would be more like Kent State at $300 million. Basically, in conclusion, we are not the same.
In closing, yes, things look bad right now on the surface. But there will be an opportunity to course correct. What Alabama can't afford (literally or figuratively) to do right now, is cut the line.
