I hate it when critical industries hold themselves out there as a sacred cow, but we'll end up with fewer airlines if there is not some intervention. Loan guarantees are probably the best path. I see Southwest, potentially, as the Ford of the group, not taking the funds. Airlines have been making record profits, but their financials still had their debt at the margin of investment quality. Delta is in the fourth rating band (Baa), which is the lowest generally considered as investment grade, and United is in the next band (Ba), which is the first subinvestment level. In my work, if you reference an entity as "fifth-rated" it means subinvestment or being in the fifth or lower rating band.
Here's what is now, obviously, an outdated outlook, but it discusses Delta and United:
Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc. undefined rose 0.3% and United Airlines Holdings Inc. undefined gained 0.4%, after upbeat comments by credit rating agency...
www.marketwatch.com
Hotels are also bleeding cash. Most are franchised and not owned by Hilton or Marriott, so the pain will be distributed and won't rest on a couple entities like the airlines. Heard on the drive into work that Atlanta hotel occupancy rates are running about 20 percent. For comparison, in 2009 when things were at their worst for the Atlanta hotel industry, average occupancy was 50 percent. It got back into and remained in the 60's for several years before getting into the 70's over the past three years. 20 percent will wreck a hotel loan pretty quickly, particularly if you've not been preparing for a downturn, which few businesses have.
Locally owned restaurants are also at severe risk.
RTR,
Tim