🏀 Bubble Watch: Winners and losers among NCAA/SEC tournament fringe teams

[BAMANEWSBOT]

Playing the part of a prototypical NCAA tournament bubble team, Miami (Fla.) recently has used the motto "Find a way." That's what the Hurricanes did Saturday in a 71-65 victory against fellow bubble team Clemson.

They did so without Ja'Quan Newton, who missed his second consecutive game of a three-game suspension that coach for violating team rules. Coach Jim Larrañaga used only two players off the bench.

The win puts Miami in USA TODAY Sports' projected field of 68, but there's no room for the Hurricanes to stub their toe down the stretch. Right now, the best part about Miami's résumé is that there are no bad losses. Add one of those, and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 260s sinks them below competing bubble teams.

Here's a look at how the rest of the borderline teams fared on Saturday.

WINNERS

Vanderbilt
The Commodores took down a ranked opponent in South Carolina, adding that to a list of solid wins that includes Florida, Iowa State and Arkansas. Oh, and one thing the committee will love about Scott Drew's team: Vandy has the No. 1 non-conference strength of schedule. Can't say the team didn't challenge itself in that regard.

Tennessee

The Volunteers avoided a résumé blemish in cruising past Missouri by 20 points, and right now this team just needs more wins. Because a top-five strength of schedule will serve as eye candy to the committee.

Arkansas

The Razorbacks took care of business on Saturday, clobbering fellow bubble team Ole Miss. Arkansas doesn't have a ton of great wins and lost to Missouri but has a solid list of top-100 victories to keep it on the right side of the bubble for now.

Alabama

Beating up on last-place LSU won't do the Tide any favors, but it was a win the Tide had to have. And it counts toward the win total

LOSERS

Georgia

The Bulldogs were right there against Kentucky, and the whole right there description might be fitting for their NCAA tournament status, too. Had Georgia beaten Kentucky, that'd give the team a signature win, which is something it's desperately lacking to complement a decent RPI and strong strength of schedule.

Auburn

Among the seven (!) bubble teams in the SEC, the Tigers were drifting toward the back of that pack. Consider them outside the pack after Saturday's 81-62 loss to Texas A&M, a team that fell off the bubble itself. After losing four of six, Auburn has zero chance of beating an elite team to build its profile to close out the regular season. The loss to the Aggies was the last straw, basically.

More from USA Today Sports...

 

[TerryP]

UofSC's loss makes that fourth seed in the SECCT a three team race now. The 'Cocks play @ Florida, Tuesday night. A loss there, with a Bama win against UGA Thursday night (and UArk winning versus TAMU) would create a three-way tie for third place but tie-breakers would leave:

1. UF
2. UK
3. UArk
4. UA
5. UofSC

As of today, Bama's place in the SECCT ...

On Thursday UofSC would play the winner of the Mississippi State vs Mizzou game (Weds. nite) with Bama playing the winner of that Thursday game, Friday.

If the Tide make it that far, it spells a rematch with UF.

 

[TerryP]

A loss there, with a Bama win against UGA Thursday night

Big loss here for UGA going into Thursday's game. Maten was having a great season--ALL SEC team seemed like a given (may still be.)

He's their 4 (PF.)

 

[18Champs]

Jerry Palm's latest bracketology.

Last four in: TCU, Syracuse, Providence, Rhode Island
First four out: Alabama, Mississippi, Wichita State, Pittsburgh

NCAA College Basketball Tournament Bracket Predictions - CBSSports.com

 

[78ChrisUA]

 

[TUSKtimes]

Bama needs to set their sights on winning the SECCT.

 

[alagator]

Bama needs to set their sights on winning the SECCT.

That's the goal every season, I'd hope, This year, it's not their only way in to the "dance."

 

[TUSKtimes]

That's the goal every season, I'd hope, This year, it's not their only way in to the "dance."

I meant getting in without having to defy the laws of physics. The only impressive win this year was SC and we scheduled great OOC games, we just lost them. Last season was a much better resume and that didn't end well.

 

[TerryP]

I meant getting in without having to defy the laws of physics. The only impressive win this year was SC and we scheduled great OOC games, we just lost them. Last season was a much better resume and that didn't end well.

They finished two games under .500 in conference play last season. This year the worst they can finished in at .500. I don't see a better reasume last year in those terms. OOC W's and L's? I'm not sure how that's going to play out considering the team that started the season isn't the one we see on the court today.

One thing about this years resume that is better is the W/L record versus top 100 RPI teams. That, along with other bubble teams losing, often, makes this a pretty murky picture.

As I see it, win out in the regular season and they're in. One loss, and a good showing (to Saturday or Sunday in the SECCT) and they've still got a fighting chance. (The Tide are playing three teams ranked in the top 100 of the RPI to conclude this season.)

(Mentioning UofSC is a little ironic considering they were ranked 19th last year when Bama won, ranked 19th this season as well.)

 

[TUSKtimes]

They finished two games under .500 in conference play last season. This year the worst they can finished in at .500. I don't see a better reasume last year in those terms. OOC W's and L's? I'm not sure how that's going to play out considering the team that started the season isn't the one we see on the court today.

One thing about this years resume that is better is the W/L record versus top 100 RPI teams. That, along with other bubble teams losing, often, makes this a pretty murky picture.

As I see it, win out in the regular season and they're in. One loss, and a good showing (to Saturday or Sunday in the SECCT) and they've still got a fighting chance. (The Tide are playing three teams ranked in the top 100 of the RPI to conclude this season.)

(Mentioning UofSC is a little ironic considering they were ranked 19th last year when Bama won, ranked 19th this season as well.)

You're a glass-half-full kind of guy. Beating the LSUs of the conference is OK, but those quickly turn into numbers when we need meaningful wins on the big NCAA pie chart. I'm not trying to rain on Bama's parade, it would be a hoot if we did, but where's the separation from all these other bubble teams? In the OOC we just didn't win anything, for lack of a kinder description. Last season we had Notre Dames's scalp on our wall, they were defending ACC champs and eventually got to the elite 8. We did beat Wichita State, a good basketball school. @ Clemson win was headline worthy as well.

To date in the conference, we have SC in 4 OTs. Last season we had a nice win over Texas A&M and @Florida and a nice 20 point win over SC to boot. If we're in I'm thrilled. We have gotten the royal shaft on a few pretty good 20 win Bama teams in the past. But when it comes to true separation type wins, we look light in the pants.

 

[TerryP]

You're a glass-half-full kind of guy.

Where does that fall in relation to a sunshine pumper? :dance:

In all seriousness, what's the point of people posting "they won't get in" over and over again when no one knows how this season will end? We are at a point where this team is close. I saw one projection where there's a little over a 75% chance of Bama getting an invite if they make it to 21 wins. (The winning out scenario I posted earlier.) The same put their chances at just under 40% with a 20 win regular season.

We have gotten the royal shaft on a few pretty good 20 win Bama teams in the past.

A few years ago the committe chair made mention of how little a 20 win mark meant in today's selection process. Yet, here we are today with these "prognosticators" using 20 wins as a bench mark. "Play tougher OOC opponents" was a cry another year.

What's it going to be this year? That's one reason my glass is half-full. We simply don't know what they'll be looking at in a few weeks. I suspect the conference record will carry more weight than the 20 or so win mark. (And, as I've stated since he was hired, I think CAJ's personality will carry weight with their selections. We know they are thinking of ratings, and that has to come into play considering the way Johnson has been respected by the media guys these past two years.

But when it comes to true separation type wins, we look light in the pants.

Who among those bubble teams looks heavy in the pants? I suppose one could make the argument for UT with the UK win--although that UGA loss (at home) sort of makes that a wash. The Vols have (IIRC) one more win over a top 100 RPI team than Bama. (Nine to eight, I believe.)

If this team gets in, GREAT! If they don't, I'm not going to be terribly disappointed (unless they have a hell of a run these next few weeks and that proverbial "shaft.") One thing I'll carry as I walk away from this season is seeing several different areas change--areas I thought needed to be addressed during the Grant era. @alabama mike would likely call this improvement. "Coaching" works for me.

 

[18Champs]

One thing for sure. Those people who have been saying "this isn't a bubble team" couldn't be more wrong. Bama is right on that bubble right now.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Where does that fall in relation to a sunshine pumper?

I think CAJ's personality will carry weight with their selections. We know they are thinking of ratings, and that has to come into play considering the way Johnson has been respected by the media guys these past two years.

One thing I'll carry as I walk away from this season is seeing several different areas change--areas I thought needed to be addressed during the Grant era. @alabama mike would likely call this improvement. "Coaching" works for me.

To be fair, I was disappointed at the results of the Nov-Dec schedule. It was hard for me to imagine doing well enough in conference play to make up the difference. If Alabama puts a good size dent in the conference tourney, other teams look bad, you never know.

There is logic to the CAJ mojo with the committee. They get caught up in style and personality. Anthony Grant would be the anti-Johnson and the NCAA treated his teams like they were carrying smallpox.

But again, what self-respecting Bama fan doesn't hope for the best?

 

[#80]

Lunardi does not have us in the last 8 out. I think we have to win out and make it to the finals of SECT to get in. Our lone quality win is not looking as good a SC stumbles down the stretch.

Bracketology with Joe Lunardi

 

[TheChief]

They finished two games under .500 in conference play last season. This year the worst they can finished in at .500. I don't see a better reasume last year in those terms. OOC W's and L's? I'm not sure how that's going to play out considering the team that started the season isn't the one we see on the court today.

One thing about this years resume that is better is the W/L record versus top 100 RPI teams. That, along with other bubble teams losing, often, makes this a pretty murky picture.

As I see it, win out in the regular season and they're in. One loss, and a good showing (to Saturday or Sunday in the SECCT) and they've still got a fighting chance. (The Tide are playing three teams ranked in the top 100 of the RPI to conclude this season.)

(Mentioning UofSC is a little ironic considering they were ranked 19th last year when Bama won, ranked 19th this season as well.)

Bama played Kentucky twice in the regular season last year. This season, it's Missouri and Georgia from the other side, and it's still possible this squad finishes at .500 (They're so inconsistent - they could win out and they could lose out. I don't think anyone has any guess on how the season plays out.). Last year's team also had more top 25 wins, if memory serves and I'm much too lazy to look. I would say if last year's team had this year's schedule, they had a realistic shot at making the tourney. The Tide lost to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament as well.

Is it just me or does Alabama play better when certain upper classmen are injured?

I hope you're right: win out and get in. I'm not so confident. I don't see the team winning the SEC tournament. Funny things happen in that tourney though. At times, this team seems scrappy enough to pull it off. Of course, then they go 9-26 from the line. Who knows?

 

[alabama mike]

@TerryP we have seen improvement this year and it is due to one thing, Coaching! CAJ and staff have done a very good job this season. I am pleased with the overall progress of the team and can't wait until next season where we should see a sure shot at the Danc.

 

[psychojoe]

It helps as far as our bubble chances that we have Tennessee left. We would be competing with them for a spot, and a W in Knoxville would put us above them in the pecking order. I have enjoyed this team. CAJ has gotten a lot out of a moderately talented team. You can win with defense and rebounding in basketball.

 

[TerryP]

@TerryP we have seen improvement this year and it is due to one thing, Coaching! CAJ and staff have done a very good job this season

I was casually following a few LSU beat writers during the game over the weekend. There was one tweet that jumped out at me mainly because I recall so many people commenting on this in regard to Grant.

 

[TerryP]

Lunardi does not have us in the last 8 out. I think we have to win out and make it to the finals of SECT to get in. Our lone quality win is not looking as good a SC stumbles down the stretch.

Bracketology with Joe Lunardi

Lunardi also has TCU coming in as part of his last four in. TCU, a team with a 16-10 record, a team that's currently two games under .500 in conference play (6-8,) and a team that's lost seven of their last 10 games.

How much sense does that make? I'm guessing it's due to their two wins over top 50 teams.

Jerry Palm recently said if a team has fourteen losses they are out. He pretty well said that was an absolute as well as if a team isn't at least four wins over the .500 mark they are out. Take a look at the RPI and the teams ranked ahead of Bama. How many will that eliminate if it is one of the absoluate benchmarks of the committee this season?

 

[alagator]

Here's a post from a guy that follows the RPI very closely.

Let's just assign some rules and then determine how many teams are really fighting for how many spots.

First, nobody has ever gotten an ALB with a RPI in the 80's. So let's just assume that we are dealing with 79 teams for 36 spots. The first thing you have to do is then remove the assumed conference champions that are already in that group of 79. There are 11 conference leaders that aren't in the top 79 of the RPI, which means there are 21 that are already accounted for. Now you have 58 teams for 36 spots.

Next, let's just award anyone not accounted for that is in the top 20 of the RPI a spot.

Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Duke, Butler, Florida St., Cincy, Virginia, St. Marys, Xavier, Maryland, UCLA.

13 teams fit that, which leaves 45 teams for 23 spots. Now, let's take any 'power 8' (power 5 + AAC, Big East, A10) teams with an RPI of 40 or better.

Creighton, Minnesota, ND, Dayton, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Oklahoma St., South Carolina, USC, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Wake, Cal.

14 teams that will get in with current RPI. Now you have 31 teams for 9 spots. Now, let's see if we skipped any mid-majors that aren't already accounted for as conference champs but have an RPI better than 40. There is 1...Illinois St.

Next, let's eliminate any of the remaining teams that don't have both a top 50 win and a true road win. New Mexico St. Now we have 30 teams for 9 spots. Next, let's eliminate anyone with a losing record. Stanford, Nebraska. 28 teams for 9 spots. Next, eliminate anyone that is worse than 4 games under .500 in conference. Clemson, Pitt. 26 teams for 9 spots. Next, let's eliminamte mid-majors with an RPI of 50 or worse. Charleston, New Mexico, Winthrop, East Tennessee.

So there you have it. 22 teams for 9 spots. Have at it.​