Last weekend's results brought more clarity to the battles for most of the BCS spots, but the chase for the all-important No. 2 place in the standings is now as unpredictable as it has been all season.
Among the other things we're waiting to see: Can Northern Illinois win the MAC title and secure a place in a BCS game? Will Alabama finish in the top four and, therefore, be guaranteed of its own BCS at-large spot? Will Clemson finish in the top 14 and be eligible for selection? Will Michigan State remain in the top 14 if it loses the Big Ten title game?
So many questions. So few games remaining to give us the answers. Here's a look at the most likely scenarios for each spot in the Bowl Championship Series. (To review the latest standings, click here.)
[h=3]VIZIO BCS National Championship[/h]
Most likely matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida State Seminoles
Next in line: Auburn, Missouri, Oklahoma St, Alabama
Unless Jameis Winston is charged this week and suspended, causing some completely unexpected voter reaction, it's hard to see a scenario in which Florida State could win the ACC title and not be in the BCS national championship game. I'm giving Ohio State the edge over Auburn for the other spot, simply because the Buckeyes are a bigger favorite this week and, presumably, more likely to survive one more game without a loss.
If OSU and Auburn both win, the Tigers seem to be in good position to keep us all on the edges of our seats until the final BCS rankings are revealed next Sunday. Auburn figures to have an edge in the computers, so we'll have to wait to see whether there's enough voter support for a one-loss SEC champion to finish ahead of the Buckeyes. And if Missouri wins the SEC title, would Mizzou assume Auburn's spot as a challenger to OSU? My guess is no, because Missouri doesn't have a win over Alabama, but Mizzou could be sitting pretty with a win and an Ohio State loss.
The only way a team other than these four could reach the national title game would seem to be for Florida State and Ohio State to both lose their respective conference championships. In that case, Oklahoma State and Alabama would be the leading candidates to face the SEC champ. Michigan State might have an outside shot in this scenario, but it's doubtful the Spartans could climb high enough in the computer rankings to have a realistic chance.
[h=3]Discover Orange Bowl[/h]
Most likely matchup: Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Next in line for ACC spot: Florida State, Duke, Oregon
Assuming Clemson remains in the top 14 of the BCS standings, the Tigers figure to get the call if Florida State is playing for the BCS title. Florida State could end up here if it somehow wins on Saturday but falls out of the BCS top two, though it's hard to imagine that happening. And it's even harder to imagine Duke beating FSU, but if that happens, the Blue Devils will be Orange Bowl-bound. And just in case FSU is playing for the national title, and no other ACC team is BCS-eligible, the Oregon Ducks would be an easy choice to fill that gap.
Next in line for at-large spot: Ohio State, UCF, Baylor
Alabama would probably be taken by the Orange Bowl if it's in the top four, because the other options would be limited. There's still a possibility for Ohio State to land here, though, if the Buckeyes lose the Big Ten title game, and nearby UCF is also a possibility if it seals the deal on the American title this week. Baylor seems like a long shot, but should still be mentioned because of its probable 11-1 record.
[h=3]Allstate Sugar Bowl[/h]
Most likely matchup: Auburn Tigers vs. UCF Knights
Next in line for SEC spot: Missouri, Alabama
The Auburn-Missouri winner will be in the Sugar as the SEC champ, unless it finishes among the top two in the BCS and reaches the national title game. In that event, Alabama would likely be a slam dunk to get the call as a replacement.
Next in line for at-large spot: Baylor, Oklahoma, Northern Illinois
If Northern Illinois meets the BCS inclusion standards for a non-AQ team -- and the Huskies figure to do so with one more win -- then the Sugar will likely take UCF to face the SEC team, assuming the Orange doesn't snatch the Knights before then. If Northern Illinois loses the MAC championship, that opens the door for the Sugar to pass on UCF and take a Big 12 team -- Baylor if Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, or Oklahoma if Baylor wins the Big 12.
[h=3]Tostitos Fiesta Bowl[/h]
Most likely matchup: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Next in line for Big 12 spot: Baylor, Texas
If Oklahoma State wins on Saturday, the Pokes should be in the Fiesta. If they lose to Oklahoma, the spot goes to the Baylor-Texas winner.
Next in line for at-large spot: UCF, Cincinnati
If Northern Illinois is in the BCS, this figures to be the place for the Huskies. If Northern Illinois loses, the American Athletic Conference champ probably slides here. That team would likely be UCF, although Cincinnati is also still alive for the BCS bid.
[h=3]Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO[/h]
Most likely matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Next in line for Big Ten spot: Ohio State, Alabama
If the Buckeyes win the Big Ten and finish in the BCS top two, Michigan State figures to land here if it doesn't fall out of the top 14. If the Buckeyes win but don't finish ranked among the top two, they will go to the Rose. And if OSU gets to the BCS title game but Michigan State is no longer BCS eligible, don't rule out Alabama as the replacement pick for the Big Ten spot, since no other Big Ten team would be available.
Next in line for Pac-12 spot: Stanford
I have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 title, because the championship game is in Tempe, where the Sun Devils have dominated this season. If Stanford wins that game, the Cardinal will be bound for Pasadena again.
Its an ESPN INsider article so I posted the entire thing: http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...xt-teams-line-every-bcs-game-college-football
Among the other things we're waiting to see: Can Northern Illinois win the MAC title and secure a place in a BCS game? Will Alabama finish in the top four and, therefore, be guaranteed of its own BCS at-large spot? Will Clemson finish in the top 14 and be eligible for selection? Will Michigan State remain in the top 14 if it loses the Big Ten title game?
So many questions. So few games remaining to give us the answers. Here's a look at the most likely scenarios for each spot in the Bowl Championship Series. (To review the latest standings, click here.)
[h=3]VIZIO BCS National Championship[/h]
Most likely matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida State Seminoles
Next in line: Auburn, Missouri, Oklahoma St, Alabama
Unless Jameis Winston is charged this week and suspended, causing some completely unexpected voter reaction, it's hard to see a scenario in which Florida State could win the ACC title and not be in the BCS national championship game. I'm giving Ohio State the edge over Auburn for the other spot, simply because the Buckeyes are a bigger favorite this week and, presumably, more likely to survive one more game without a loss.
If OSU and Auburn both win, the Tigers seem to be in good position to keep us all on the edges of our seats until the final BCS rankings are revealed next Sunday. Auburn figures to have an edge in the computers, so we'll have to wait to see whether there's enough voter support for a one-loss SEC champion to finish ahead of the Buckeyes. And if Missouri wins the SEC title, would Mizzou assume Auburn's spot as a challenger to OSU? My guess is no, because Missouri doesn't have a win over Alabama, but Mizzou could be sitting pretty with a win and an Ohio State loss.
The only way a team other than these four could reach the national title game would seem to be for Florida State and Ohio State to both lose their respective conference championships. In that case, Oklahoma State and Alabama would be the leading candidates to face the SEC champ. Michigan State might have an outside shot in this scenario, but it's doubtful the Spartans could climb high enough in the computer rankings to have a realistic chance.
[h=3]Discover Orange Bowl[/h]
Most likely matchup: Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Next in line for ACC spot: Florida State, Duke, Oregon
Assuming Clemson remains in the top 14 of the BCS standings, the Tigers figure to get the call if Florida State is playing for the BCS title. Florida State could end up here if it somehow wins on Saturday but falls out of the BCS top two, though it's hard to imagine that happening. And it's even harder to imagine Duke beating FSU, but if that happens, the Blue Devils will be Orange Bowl-bound. And just in case FSU is playing for the national title, and no other ACC team is BCS-eligible, the Oregon Ducks would be an easy choice to fill that gap.
Next in line for at-large spot: Ohio State, UCF, Baylor
Alabama would probably be taken by the Orange Bowl if it's in the top four, because the other options would be limited. There's still a possibility for Ohio State to land here, though, if the Buckeyes lose the Big Ten title game, and nearby UCF is also a possibility if it seals the deal on the American title this week. Baylor seems like a long shot, but should still be mentioned because of its probable 11-1 record.
[h=3]Allstate Sugar Bowl[/h]
Most likely matchup: Auburn Tigers vs. UCF Knights
Next in line for SEC spot: Missouri, Alabama
The Auburn-Missouri winner will be in the Sugar as the SEC champ, unless it finishes among the top two in the BCS and reaches the national title game. In that event, Alabama would likely be a slam dunk to get the call as a replacement.
Next in line for at-large spot: Baylor, Oklahoma, Northern Illinois
If Northern Illinois meets the BCS inclusion standards for a non-AQ team -- and the Huskies figure to do so with one more win -- then the Sugar will likely take UCF to face the SEC team, assuming the Orange doesn't snatch the Knights before then. If Northern Illinois loses the MAC championship, that opens the door for the Sugar to pass on UCF and take a Big 12 team -- Baylor if Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, or Oklahoma if Baylor wins the Big 12.
[h=3]Tostitos Fiesta Bowl[/h]
Most likely matchup: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Next in line for Big 12 spot: Baylor, Texas
If Oklahoma State wins on Saturday, the Pokes should be in the Fiesta. If they lose to Oklahoma, the spot goes to the Baylor-Texas winner.
Next in line for at-large spot: UCF, Cincinnati
If Northern Illinois is in the BCS, this figures to be the place for the Huskies. If Northern Illinois loses, the American Athletic Conference champ probably slides here. That team would likely be UCF, although Cincinnati is also still alive for the BCS bid.
[h=3]Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO[/h]
Most likely matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Next in line for Big Ten spot: Ohio State, Alabama
If the Buckeyes win the Big Ten and finish in the BCS top two, Michigan State figures to land here if it doesn't fall out of the top 14. If the Buckeyes win but don't finish ranked among the top two, they will go to the Rose. And if OSU gets to the BCS title game but Michigan State is no longer BCS eligible, don't rule out Alabama as the replacement pick for the Big Ten spot, since no other Big Ten team would be available.
Next in line for Pac-12 spot: Stanford
I have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 title, because the championship game is in Tempe, where the Sun Devils have dominated this season. If Stanford wins that game, the Cardinal will be bound for Pasadena again.
Its an ESPN INsider article so I posted the entire thing: http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...xt-teams-line-every-bcs-game-college-football
