🏀 Bama and 2018-19 Bracketology

[TerryP]

@TerryP do you know how it factors in?

In my view the whole ranking system needs to be readjusted. When the NCAA announced they were moving to the NET rankings and moving away from the RPI it was one of the first things I noticed--the score doesn't matter but the score does matter.

They (NCAA) were really big on pushing the party line of "don't run up the score because it won't matter." It's "disguised" under "we're going to cap the win margin at ten." As Matt posted in that graph you can see where the margin of victory is the 5th element in their rankings.

However, this thing about "margin of victory not counting as much" and "it's capped at 10" falls flat on its face when you look at the second metric--offensive and defensive efficiency.

To get your offensive and defensive efficiency rankings up to where they can be teams need to run up the score. It's weighed in that metric. I don't believe I've seen a coach lay out the problems with this system better than Wade did following the LSU win.

“There’s a play on numbers that’s wrong,” Wade said. “The fifth most important category in the NET is your margin of victory, and it’s capped at 10 points. The second most important is your offensive and defensive efficiency, and there is no cap.​

​

“Well, to (get) your offensive and defensive efficiency where you need it to be, you need to run the score up on people. Alabama did us a favor (Tuesday) by dribbling the ball out and not taking a shot so we could win by nine. That was a defensive stop for us.​

​

“So they’re going to have to readjust the formula because they don’t want people to blow people out, but they’re basically telling people to blow people out because that’s weighted more than the 10-point (cap).”​

​

FWIW, following the mid-week games Bama is now sitting at #42 in the NET rankings. And, on that note, the RPI currently has the Tide at #29 with a SOS of 17,

 

[TerryP]

(No matter what he does he always comes across as an arrogant A-hole to me: "my gift to you." SMH. )

Bilas: The 68 best teams in college basketball ... my gift to you

54. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tide have some good pieces and a chance to take a big step this season. Alabama has been competitive in every game and has a 17-year-old point guard in Kira Lewis Jr. who is legit. There is not a big guy in the country who plays harder than Donta Hall. If John Petty can be more consistent at a high level, Alabama can move up in the Bilas Index and become an NCAA tournament team.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

 

[#80]

As I look at the remainder of our schedule I see us in the dance barring some meltdown.

 

[TerryP]

As I look at the remainder of our schedule I see us in the dance barring some meltdown.

I saw it mentioned that over the last week the projected win total has jumped by four. If I recall correctly, it had the Tide finishing with 18 wins (and that included dropping the last four games in a row which I don't believe will happen.) All of the remaining games are against current Q1 and Q2 teams.

They are building a strong resume.

 

[TerryP]

#11 seed in this one.

 

[TerryP]

A quick glance at BracketMatrix has Bama in 90 of their 98 brackets.

 

[#80]

Lunardi updated this morning #11 seed with a bye no play in and trending up.

Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) | Twitter

 

[TerryP]

@#80, the team is right on the cusp of getting a pretty good seed for the NCAA's.

Depending on where you look the projected record runs from 17-14 to 18-13. Originally, it had Bama losing all of their road games other than the one against A&M. We're looking at UofSC, UArk, Vandy, and A&M. I believe it's reasonable to thing Bama can pull off two of those.

I'd love to see the team really hold home court. If they can flip what's projected (losses to Auburn and LSU at home) we could easily be looking at a 20 win season going into the SECT. That alone should be enough to move Bama to a six or seven seed in the tourney.

Personally, I'm thinking 19 wins going into conference tourney play. That also happens to be where KenPom projects the Tide as of today.

 

[mando]

@TerryP Not sure how anyone can project anything with confidence with bama basketball. Before SEC play they had a couple of nice win streaks. I do not think they have had anything more than 2 game losing streaks with a 4 and 5 game win streaks (before sec play). Since SEC play started it is win one lose one pattern mostly. A big part of my concern is the history over the last 20 years including CAJ's tenure. I know it should not have anything to do with this years team but still hard to not let it creep into the perceptions of the program and this years team.

I just do not trust they have the gotten over the hump to form a more consistent winning culture that would keep them from nose diving or doing any better than .500. Hope I am wrong.

They have 5 games on the rode and 3 at home correct?

My projection:
@Auburn - loss - hope not but likely.
Georgia - win at home
@Vandy - tossup - we have not played well in Nashville the last couple of decades.
@Mississippi State - Loss - close at home this week so likely flips being on the road.
Florida - they usually own us regardless of where we play - Loss
@Tx A&M - tossup - on the road so likely a loss
Vandy - Win at home
@South Carolina - tossup - again on the road so likely a loss.

Current Record is 13-7 and 4-3 in SEC.

Record down the stretch - half empty assuming none of the toss ups go our way - 2 - 6. Putting the overall record at 15-13 SEC 6 - 9

Best case I would say is 4-4 putting us at 17-11.

 

[TerryP]

@TerryP Not sure how anyone can project anything with confidence with bama basketball.

On the same note, I'm not sure how anyone can look at this team and not see improvement over what we've seen in the last few years under CAJ. I'm cautiously optimistic, granted, but I do like how I'm seeing things round themselves out.

 

[BamaFan334]

@TerryP Not sure how anyone can project anything with confidence with bama basketball.

On the same note, I'm not sure how anyone can look at this team and not see improvement over what we've seen in the last few years under CAJ. I'm cautiously optimistic, granted, but I do like how I'm seeing things round themselves out.

I love the fact we are scoring more points. It has made us WAY more competitive. As I mentioned before, we have been in almost every single game we've played, and led by double digit points in most of them if I am not mistaken. Could be wrong on that, but we have beaten ourselves, and that is a heck of a lot different than just getting beat. I am confident in that as well that we are improving, though the record may not show it.

 

[mando]

@TerryP Not sure how anyone can project anything with confidence with bama basketball.

On the same note, I'm not sure how anyone can look at this team and not see improvement over what we've seen in the last few years under CAJ. I'm cautiously optimistic, granted, but I do like how I'm seeing things round themselves out.

I hope your cautious optimism is exactly how it plays out.

 

[TerryP]

I love the fact we are scoring more points. It has made us WAY more competitive.

I don't know how familiar folks are with adjusted rankings: IE: adjust offense efficiency, adjusted defense efficiency, etc. The easiest way I know how to explain it is it's an average of all the D1 teams, and how well teams would do against an average D1 team. So, how would Bama do against the team that's ranked in the middle of defensive efficiency across the board.

Remember, we're talking about 100's of teams here...what's the count now? I think the number is 347 this season. So, how would Bama do against #173.

This season, to date, he has his AOE rankings including Duke, Virginia, and Tennessee in the top five. (Auburn is up there, Bama needs defense today.) While the Tide is ranked 46th overall in his rankings, their AOE ranking 39th.

Now, when I mentioned improvement earlier in this thread...
2018 #106
2017 #152
2016 #164

 

[#80]

@#80, the team is right on the cusp of getting a pretty good seed for the NCAA's.

Depending on where you look the projected record runs from 17-14 to 18-13. Originally, it had Bama losing all of their road games other than the one against A&M. We're looking at UofSC, UArk, Vandy, and A&M. I believe it's reasonable to thing Bama can pull off two of those.

I'd love to see the team really hold home court. If they can flip what's projected (losses to Auburn and LSU at home) we could easily be looking at a 20 win season going into the SECT. That alone should be enough to move Bama to a six or seven seed in the tourney.

Personally, I'm thinking 19 wins going into conference tourney play. That also happens to be where KenPom projects the Tide as of today.

I agree with you I think we end the season stronger than some of the doubters on this board. I'm looking at some road wins and a 20 win season.

 

[mando]

I agree with you I think we end the season stronger than some of the doubters on this board. I'm looking at some road wins and a 20 win season.

I do not want to be a doubter. Just have watched this play out in years past. I am rooting for them big time. I want to see bama basketball back to at least what it was under Wimp.

 

[UAgrad93]

I just want to see consistency and avoid those dry spells we see at times. Weather the storm early because the Barners will be jacked up! Get out front quick and neutralize the crowd early.
I’d love to see this team finish strong down the stretch, get 20 wins and go back to the dance. I think some or most of us don’t expect a Natty, but we do want 20+ wins and trips to the Dance to be a regular occurrence with a deep run or two sprinkled in to really get us excited.

 

[TerryP]

Currently Bama holds the tie-breaker with Ole Miss and still has to play at Arkansas. Auburn holds the tie-breaker with Bama with another game left to play.

At this point, Bama would open the SEC tournament with a first day bye playing the winner of Wednesday's game two (Vandy or Missouri.)

According to Bracket Matrix, Bama is currently in 103 of the 108 published brackets with seedings as low as #12 and as high as #8—averages out to be a 10 seed.

Up next: Vandy in Nashville, Saturday night.

 

[bamafan4ever]

Up next: Vandy in Nashville, Saturday night.

Damn. I hate that funky ass arena. We usually suck there too.

 

[mando]

Damn. I hate that funky ass arena. We usually suck there too.

Agree. usually does not end well.