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Alabama Basketball: Analyzing the Crimson Tide's rotation for 2018-19
Alabama Basketball lost two key contributors from last year, including Collin Sexton. How will the rotation look for next year?
Last season was one for the ages for Alabama basketball. Its berth in the NCAA Tournament was one of many milestones for the Tide. Collin Sexton being drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers was another. With so many things happening last year, hopes are very high that Coach Johnson will continue the success into the 2019 season.
However, this will be a challenge. Losing a talent like Sexton is not easy to overcome. An extra issue will be replacing the talents of Braxton Key, an underrated contributor from last year. Not only are these minutes now up for grabs, but Alabama will need to find more scoring and ball handling if they want to get to where they were last year.
The good news is that Alabama has a lot of returning talent to mix with new players. John Petty is in a great position to explode this year. Donta Hall will give a senior presence that was missing last year. Riley Norris was a surprise addition to the roster after receiving a medical redshirt in his senior season. Tevin Mack will finally be eligible after sitting out last season. Combine this with a talented freshman class and you have a recipe for success. The biggest issue will be putting all the pieces together to make sense this year. Many of the pieces will change as the season goes on, but here’s what I see as the season opens.
Starting Point Guard: Jared Butler
Alabama likes to play positionless basketball. The only traditional point guard on the roster is Avery Johnson Jr. To fill Collin Sexton’s shoes, the Tide will have to turn to a new freshman in Jared Butler.
Butler was a four-star recruit in the 2018 class. After watching highlights, it’s clear that he has the ability to contribute on a college roster. His handles will help him get to the basket, and his athleticism is enough for him to finish at the rim.
Butler will have to gain trust to compete for minutes in clutch time, but he will have enough talent to start early. If things get tough, he might lose his job to Johnson Jr., but that’s later down the line.
I would expect for Butler to get around 20-25 minutes a game this season. He could play some at the 2 if necessary with his shooting ability, but he’s made to play with the ball in his hands. Set him up in a screen and roll and he will make the defense pay. If he has an obvious mismatch, he can just clear out the screen and beat his man in isolation. It’ll be interesting to see what Jared Butler can do, but I believe that hopes should be very high.
Starting Shooting Guard: John Petty
Petty is arguably the most talented recruit on this team. His freshman season was frustrating to say the least, however. Petty has too much talent to have as many poor performances on the road as he did last year. He truly was a tale of two cities: Tuscaloosa vs. wherever he was playing on the road. He broke records in Coleman, but he had more bricks than a LEGO set in hostile road games.
If the Tide want to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, they have to get more quality games from Petty. Fans hope that being tested in the SEC and NCAA tournaments last year will give him the experience necessary to improve. If he can cut down on turnovers and open misses behind the arc, he will see a great improvement on his numbers.
Petty might see his minutes decrease in road games, but I would project for him to get around 26-30. He got 28.5 a game last year, and his competition for minutes will be about the same. Riley Norris will steal some for sure, but Braxton Key out of the lineup will help even things out. If Petty becomes the star he can be, expect his minutes to be in the low-to-mid 30s.
Starting Small Forward: Dazon Ingram
Dazon Ingram is not a traditional SF, but he can play wing. He started more games than any other Tide player last year, including Sexton. He’s been a consistent force in a Crimson jersey the past two seasons. I think it’s hard to find a scenario where he doesn’t start on a regular basis.
One of the great things about Ingram is his versatility. He has the length and speed to guard almost any player on the court. His aggressive offensive style fits perfectly with Johnson’s game plan. He likes to get downhill in a hurry and force teams to foul him at the rim. Coach Johnson always wants to score in the first few seconds of the shot clock to keep the defense on its heels, and that’s what Ingram does best.
Ingram got about 28 minutes a game last year, and I’d expect that number to about the same in 2019. Norris and Mack will be coming for his minutes every game. Early on, he might see fewer minutes to give every player a chance to show what they have. Once we get to the SEC portion of the schedule, Ingram could be getting close to 32-33 minutes a game. Some of those minutes will be as the primary ball handler now that Sexton is in the NBA. He can play some 2 in a traditional lineup, and he would be the 4 if Johnson ever rolls out a “death lineup.”
Starting Power Forward: Tevin Mack
Tevin Mack is more forward than power, but he fits into a small ball lineup seamlessly. He spent the last year waiting in the wings after transferring out of Texas, and that will be great for his development. He knows what is expected of him at the Capstone more than a typical first-year player for a school. He has the talent to start from day one.
Mack isn’t going to stay in the post if he plays any minutes at the four. He scores his points off the dribble from the wing. He’s another player that will get downhill in a hurry and initiate a fast break. His jumper needs some work, but he will do well this season.
Mack won’t get all the starts, but no one will in Coach Avery’s system. Johnson will regularly change his roster based on who is performing well and who the matchup is. He had 7 players get at least ten starts last season alone. I think in a typical setting, the nod will go to Mack. Any ‘Bama player can defend, but Mack has a higher ability to score when compared to other wings.
I think Mack will get over 20 minutes a game. If he can prove his ability to be trusted in the final minutes of a close game, that number will get closer to 30. I want to just wait and see how he does in the SEC before making him the face of the team for this season, however.
Starting Center: Donta Hall
Donta Hall will start every game he is available for many reasons. Firstly, there is a necessity in this lineup for a starting center. Secondly, he is simply one of the best players on the roster. The gap between him and the other centers is obvious. Playing with a smaller lineup pushes the need for a rebounding presence at the 5, and Hall can collect boards with the best of them.
Hall doesn’t have the size of a typical center, but he is great at getting second-chance points. He also can catch plenty of lobs off the pick and roll. His frame might not show it, but he has the strength to make moves in the post.
Hall only got 23.7 minutes a game, but that was mostly due to injury. If his wrist is completely healed, he can probably get close to 30 minutes a game. He will have a few games with few minutes due to matchup concerns, but he will be able to do a lot this year regardless. Many of his minutes will be at the forward position as Giddens plays the 5.
Hall will be one of the bigger leaders this season. His basketball ability is an asset, and his leadership off the floor will help this team go far. He has now become the veteran presence the Tide so desperately needed last season.
Sixth Man: Herb Jones
Herb Jones is a fan favorite for the Tide. His defense is definitely his greatest strength. Alabama fans will remember how he performed against Trae Young and Oklahoma last year. His versatility makes it simple: Put him on the opposing team’s best guard or wing and they will struggle. He can guard anywhere from 1 to 4 with his length.
Jones will start his fair share of games. He might even be a starter when the Tide open the season. It’s just that there are 6 players on this roster that are clearly worth being in the starting five. Without having a distinct scoring threat like Mack, Jones might have to be the odd man out on most nights.
I personally wouldn’t put a lot of stock into who starts the games in Coach Johnson’s system. He learned from Gregg Popovich for years, and Pop is known for not starting his five best players. He’s had Manu come off the bench and take over the second unit for the main part of recent memory, even when he was better than the shooting guard starting. Johnson doesn’t play to win the first 5-6 minutes; he plays to win 40.
Johnson will put out plenty of lineups before the season is over. Jones will see some time at the 2, 3, and 4 positions. He might even get a few minutes at point if Johnson wants to run a bigger lineup. He’s got the talent to fill whatever needs his team has on a nightly basis, and that’s where his value comes.
I would expect Jones to get more than the 21.2 minutes a game he got last year. He proved that he could be trusted as the season progressed, so he will probably be out there in the final 5-10 minutes of every game. If Johnson decides to put out a death lineup, Jones will be a part of it. Even if he doesn’t start every single game, he’s simply too talented to leave off the floor for too long.
Seventh Man: Riley Norris
Riley Norris is Alabama’s wild card. As a senior last year, he was not supposed to come back this year. All that changed when he got injured after playing in only nine games. He was granted a medical redshirt, and now he returns for his second try at his final season.
Norris can handle playing about 20 minutes a game, and he might have to in certain spots. If Petty’s shooting doesn’t improve on the road, Norris will be where the Tide turn to behind the arc. If there’s any injury, Norris will step up in a new role.
Three-and-D players are not usually around in the college level, but that’s a commodity the Tide will be blessed with. If Johnson runs this team like an NBA franchise, a player like Norris fits in well.
Norris will get his fair share of starts on the year. He got three starts in his nine games played last season, and he was a regular started in earlier seasons. That’s the issue with being a veteran on a team that’s improving so fast. Two years ago, Norris was the best option. Now, he’s just one of the guys. We’ll see what he can do for the Tide this year.
Avery Johnson Jr.
AJ is a senior leader at the point guard position. He’s the kind of guy that makes teams successful. When he is on the floor, you know what you get. He’s going to push the tempo and drive to the basket for a few points. He lays it all out every second he plays. For lack of a better term, he’s the team’s spark plug.
He got about a dozen minutes a game last year, and he should stick with that this year. If Butler struggles in a starting role, AJ will step in and take some of his minutes. He might also play more on the road because of his experience the past two years.
Success in college basketball is about filling roles. Not every role has to be a starting slot, however. Johnson Jr. knows exactly what his role is. He can come in, play in a few 3-5 minute spurts, and give the other players a breather without putting the team in a deficit.
Daniel Giddens
Giddens is the closest thing that Alabama has to a traditional center. He can bully people in the post with his strength. He comes with his issues, however. He fouls early and often. He’s not a consistent scorer. He also saw his minutes decrease towards the end of the year when every win mattered. If Johnson wants to play a traditional lineup to start a game, Giddens will be out there. I don’t see him closing out many games, however.
Alex Reese
Alex Reese is a great shooting threat in certain times. If he gets hot at home, it’s hard to stop the Tide. He’s just not going to get a consistent amount of time in every game. He’s a chess piece. Sometimes, you need him to win the game. Sometimes, you use your other pieces while he waits to be used. He played a lot as the regular season slowed down, but he was quiet in the tournament games that mattered. He’s never going to shoot at a high volume, but he has the ability to be consistent enough to carve out a role.
Galin Smith
Galin Smith might start the first game of the season. He started every game in the SEC tournament, and he played well. He’s not going to lead the team in scoring. He’s going to defend, get some boards, and score when he’s open. He won’t close out games, but he’ll play a big enough role.
Diante Wood and Javian Fleming
Alabama’s two other recruits from the 2018 class will be given chances to show what they got. They might move up the depth chart as the season goes on, but I haven’t seen enough to predict that happening just yet.
Lawson Schaffer
Schaffer is the team’s feel-good story. He played garbage minutes last year, and he usually gets a roaring round of applause at home. Everyone loves to see the walk-on play. As a senior, he might be put out there more than the final minutes of a blowout. At the very least, he can get the crowd interested if a game gets dull.
Minutes Distribution
Minutes will look different every game for Coach Johnson. Some players will go from starting one game to playing less than ten minutes the next. If this season is anything like last year, Johnson will run about 8 or 9 people through the starting lineup consistently. It’s just his strategy. That’s not a bad thing, but it makes it hard to predict specifics on minute distribution. Here’s my best attempt
Point Guard: Butler (23), Johnson Jr. (12), Schaffer (5)
Guard: Petty (22), Jones (10), Norris (6) Wood (2)
Wing 1: Ingram (29), Jones (11)
Wing 2: Mack (25), Petty (5), Jones (4), Norris (4), Reese (2)
Post: Hall (25), Reese (8), Smith (5), Giddens (2)
Total: Ingram (29), Petty (27), Mack (25), Hall (25), Jones (25), Butler (23), Johnson Jr. (12), Norris (10), Reese (10), Schaffer (5), Smith (5), Giddens (2), Wood (2)
As I said, these will change every game. There will be nights where a player is buried on the bench. That doesn’t mean that they won’t play 30 minutes the next game. Also, there will be times where there will only be one guard. Later, there might be three or four of them on the floor. Johnson does not follow traditional basketball systems.
Alabama Basketball lost two key contributors from last year, including Collin Sexton. How will the rotation look for next year?
Last season was one for the ages for Alabama basketball. Its berth in the NCAA Tournament was one of many milestones for the Tide. Collin Sexton being drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers was another. With so many things happening last year, hopes are very high that Coach Johnson will continue the success into the 2019 season.
However, this will be a challenge. Losing a talent like Sexton is not easy to overcome. An extra issue will be replacing the talents of Braxton Key, an underrated contributor from last year. Not only are these minutes now up for grabs, but Alabama will need to find more scoring and ball handling if they want to get to where they were last year.
The good news is that Alabama has a lot of returning talent to mix with new players. John Petty is in a great position to explode this year. Donta Hall will give a senior presence that was missing last year. Riley Norris was a surprise addition to the roster after receiving a medical redshirt in his senior season. Tevin Mack will finally be eligible after sitting out last season. Combine this with a talented freshman class and you have a recipe for success. The biggest issue will be putting all the pieces together to make sense this year. Many of the pieces will change as the season goes on, but here’s what I see as the season opens.
Starting Point Guard: Jared Butler
Alabama likes to play positionless basketball. The only traditional point guard on the roster is Avery Johnson Jr. To fill Collin Sexton’s shoes, the Tide will have to turn to a new freshman in Jared Butler.
Butler was a four-star recruit in the 2018 class. After watching highlights, it’s clear that he has the ability to contribute on a college roster. His handles will help him get to the basket, and his athleticism is enough for him to finish at the rim.
Butler will have to gain trust to compete for minutes in clutch time, but he will have enough talent to start early. If things get tough, he might lose his job to Johnson Jr., but that’s later down the line.
I would expect for Butler to get around 20-25 minutes a game this season. He could play some at the 2 if necessary with his shooting ability, but he’s made to play with the ball in his hands. Set him up in a screen and roll and he will make the defense pay. If he has an obvious mismatch, he can just clear out the screen and beat his man in isolation. It’ll be interesting to see what Jared Butler can do, but I believe that hopes should be very high.
Starting Shooting Guard: John Petty
Petty is arguably the most talented recruit on this team. His freshman season was frustrating to say the least, however. Petty has too much talent to have as many poor performances on the road as he did last year. He truly was a tale of two cities: Tuscaloosa vs. wherever he was playing on the road. He broke records in Coleman, but he had more bricks than a LEGO set in hostile road games.
If the Tide want to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, they have to get more quality games from Petty. Fans hope that being tested in the SEC and NCAA tournaments last year will give him the experience necessary to improve. If he can cut down on turnovers and open misses behind the arc, he will see a great improvement on his numbers.
Petty might see his minutes decrease in road games, but I would project for him to get around 26-30. He got 28.5 a game last year, and his competition for minutes will be about the same. Riley Norris will steal some for sure, but Braxton Key out of the lineup will help even things out. If Petty becomes the star he can be, expect his minutes to be in the low-to-mid 30s.
Starting Small Forward: Dazon Ingram
Dazon Ingram is not a traditional SF, but he can play wing. He started more games than any other Tide player last year, including Sexton. He’s been a consistent force in a Crimson jersey the past two seasons. I think it’s hard to find a scenario where he doesn’t start on a regular basis.
One of the great things about Ingram is his versatility. He has the length and speed to guard almost any player on the court. His aggressive offensive style fits perfectly with Johnson’s game plan. He likes to get downhill in a hurry and force teams to foul him at the rim. Coach Johnson always wants to score in the first few seconds of the shot clock to keep the defense on its heels, and that’s what Ingram does best.
Ingram got about 28 minutes a game last year, and I’d expect that number to about the same in 2019. Norris and Mack will be coming for his minutes every game. Early on, he might see fewer minutes to give every player a chance to show what they have. Once we get to the SEC portion of the schedule, Ingram could be getting close to 32-33 minutes a game. Some of those minutes will be as the primary ball handler now that Sexton is in the NBA. He can play some 2 in a traditional lineup, and he would be the 4 if Johnson ever rolls out a “death lineup.”
Starting Power Forward: Tevin Mack
Tevin Mack is more forward than power, but he fits into a small ball lineup seamlessly. He spent the last year waiting in the wings after transferring out of Texas, and that will be great for his development. He knows what is expected of him at the Capstone more than a typical first-year player for a school. He has the talent to start from day one.
Mack isn’t going to stay in the post if he plays any minutes at the four. He scores his points off the dribble from the wing. He’s another player that will get downhill in a hurry and initiate a fast break. His jumper needs some work, but he will do well this season.
Mack won’t get all the starts, but no one will in Coach Avery’s system. Johnson will regularly change his roster based on who is performing well and who the matchup is. He had 7 players get at least ten starts last season alone. I think in a typical setting, the nod will go to Mack. Any ‘Bama player can defend, but Mack has a higher ability to score when compared to other wings.
I think Mack will get over 20 minutes a game. If he can prove his ability to be trusted in the final minutes of a close game, that number will get closer to 30. I want to just wait and see how he does in the SEC before making him the face of the team for this season, however.
Starting Center: Donta Hall
Donta Hall will start every game he is available for many reasons. Firstly, there is a necessity in this lineup for a starting center. Secondly, he is simply one of the best players on the roster. The gap between him and the other centers is obvious. Playing with a smaller lineup pushes the need for a rebounding presence at the 5, and Hall can collect boards with the best of them.
Hall doesn’t have the size of a typical center, but he is great at getting second-chance points. He also can catch plenty of lobs off the pick and roll. His frame might not show it, but he has the strength to make moves in the post.
Hall only got 23.7 minutes a game, but that was mostly due to injury. If his wrist is completely healed, he can probably get close to 30 minutes a game. He will have a few games with few minutes due to matchup concerns, but he will be able to do a lot this year regardless. Many of his minutes will be at the forward position as Giddens plays the 5.
Hall will be one of the bigger leaders this season. His basketball ability is an asset, and his leadership off the floor will help this team go far. He has now become the veteran presence the Tide so desperately needed last season.
Sixth Man: Herb Jones
Herb Jones is a fan favorite for the Tide. His defense is definitely his greatest strength. Alabama fans will remember how he performed against Trae Young and Oklahoma last year. His versatility makes it simple: Put him on the opposing team’s best guard or wing and they will struggle. He can guard anywhere from 1 to 4 with his length.
Jones will start his fair share of games. He might even be a starter when the Tide open the season. It’s just that there are 6 players on this roster that are clearly worth being in the starting five. Without having a distinct scoring threat like Mack, Jones might have to be the odd man out on most nights.
I personally wouldn’t put a lot of stock into who starts the games in Coach Johnson’s system. He learned from Gregg Popovich for years, and Pop is known for not starting his five best players. He’s had Manu come off the bench and take over the second unit for the main part of recent memory, even when he was better than the shooting guard starting. Johnson doesn’t play to win the first 5-6 minutes; he plays to win 40.
Johnson will put out plenty of lineups before the season is over. Jones will see some time at the 2, 3, and 4 positions. He might even get a few minutes at point if Johnson wants to run a bigger lineup. He’s got the talent to fill whatever needs his team has on a nightly basis, and that’s where his value comes.
I would expect Jones to get more than the 21.2 minutes a game he got last year. He proved that he could be trusted as the season progressed, so he will probably be out there in the final 5-10 minutes of every game. If Johnson decides to put out a death lineup, Jones will be a part of it. Even if he doesn’t start every single game, he’s simply too talented to leave off the floor for too long.
Seventh Man: Riley Norris
Riley Norris is Alabama’s wild card. As a senior last year, he was not supposed to come back this year. All that changed when he got injured after playing in only nine games. He was granted a medical redshirt, and now he returns for his second try at his final season.
Norris can handle playing about 20 minutes a game, and he might have to in certain spots. If Petty’s shooting doesn’t improve on the road, Norris will be where the Tide turn to behind the arc. If there’s any injury, Norris will step up in a new role.
Three-and-D players are not usually around in the college level, but that’s a commodity the Tide will be blessed with. If Johnson runs this team like an NBA franchise, a player like Norris fits in well.
Norris will get his fair share of starts on the year. He got three starts in his nine games played last season, and he was a regular started in earlier seasons. That’s the issue with being a veteran on a team that’s improving so fast. Two years ago, Norris was the best option. Now, he’s just one of the guys. We’ll see what he can do for the Tide this year.
Avery Johnson Jr.
AJ is a senior leader at the point guard position. He’s the kind of guy that makes teams successful. When he is on the floor, you know what you get. He’s going to push the tempo and drive to the basket for a few points. He lays it all out every second he plays. For lack of a better term, he’s the team’s spark plug.
He got about a dozen minutes a game last year, and he should stick with that this year. If Butler struggles in a starting role, AJ will step in and take some of his minutes. He might also play more on the road because of his experience the past two years.
Success in college basketball is about filling roles. Not every role has to be a starting slot, however. Johnson Jr. knows exactly what his role is. He can come in, play in a few 3-5 minute spurts, and give the other players a breather without putting the team in a deficit.
Daniel Giddens
Giddens is the closest thing that Alabama has to a traditional center. He can bully people in the post with his strength. He comes with his issues, however. He fouls early and often. He’s not a consistent scorer. He also saw his minutes decrease towards the end of the year when every win mattered. If Johnson wants to play a traditional lineup to start a game, Giddens will be out there. I don’t see him closing out many games, however.
Alex Reese
Alex Reese is a great shooting threat in certain times. If he gets hot at home, it’s hard to stop the Tide. He’s just not going to get a consistent amount of time in every game. He’s a chess piece. Sometimes, you need him to win the game. Sometimes, you use your other pieces while he waits to be used. He played a lot as the regular season slowed down, but he was quiet in the tournament games that mattered. He’s never going to shoot at a high volume, but he has the ability to be consistent enough to carve out a role.
Galin Smith
Galin Smith might start the first game of the season. He started every game in the SEC tournament, and he played well. He’s not going to lead the team in scoring. He’s going to defend, get some boards, and score when he’s open. He won’t close out games, but he’ll play a big enough role.
Diante Wood and Javian Fleming
Alabama’s two other recruits from the 2018 class will be given chances to show what they got. They might move up the depth chart as the season goes on, but I haven’t seen enough to predict that happening just yet.
Lawson Schaffer
Schaffer is the team’s feel-good story. He played garbage minutes last year, and he usually gets a roaring round of applause at home. Everyone loves to see the walk-on play. As a senior, he might be put out there more than the final minutes of a blowout. At the very least, he can get the crowd interested if a game gets dull.
Minutes Distribution
Minutes will look different every game for Coach Johnson. Some players will go from starting one game to playing less than ten minutes the next. If this season is anything like last year, Johnson will run about 8 or 9 people through the starting lineup consistently. It’s just his strategy. That’s not a bad thing, but it makes it hard to predict specifics on minute distribution. Here’s my best attempt
Point Guard: Butler (23), Johnson Jr. (12), Schaffer (5)
Guard: Petty (22), Jones (10), Norris (6) Wood (2)
Wing 1: Ingram (29), Jones (11)
Wing 2: Mack (25), Petty (5), Jones (4), Norris (4), Reese (2)
Post: Hall (25), Reese (8), Smith (5), Giddens (2)
Total: Ingram (29), Petty (27), Mack (25), Hall (25), Jones (25), Butler (23), Johnson Jr. (12), Norris (10), Reese (10), Schaffer (5), Smith (5), Giddens (2), Wood (2)
As I said, these will change every game. There will be nights where a player is buried on the bench. That doesn’t mean that they won’t play 30 minutes the next game. Also, there will be times where there will only be one guard. Later, there might be three or four of them on the floor. Johnson does not follow traditional basketball systems.
