🏈 After Three Games - Predict Alabama's Season Record

[TheChief]

I know it's difficult to tell at this point, considering the team still hasn't played a quality opponent. But, based on what you've seen from the Tide and all its opponents, what's the team's record at the end of the regular season?

I say 10 wins, two losses, and the team makes a good bowl game. After watching Florida play Kensucky, I don't see the Gators as a threat at all. I say Bama wins two and loses two from LSU, Texas A and M, Auburn, and Ole Miss. Alabama wins the rest including a beat down of the Viles in Knoxville.

 

[MissingRing]

I hate to think about Alabama losing any games this season, but the breaking in of a new QB and the lingering issues in the secondary have me thinking also maybe 10 wins and no invitation to the playoffs.

 

[alabama mike]

I will say 1 loss unless we are bitten by a major injury bug.

 

[UAgrad93]

I'll say 11 wins. I may be looking thru Crimson colored glasses but I think our secondary will improve with having seen so many spread teams by the time Ole Miss and A&M hit the schedule, we will be prepared.

 

[jdpas29]

losses to A&M and Auburn.

 

[TerryP]

I don't see a team mentioned we can't beat.

Take all of this "fear" with A&M. Will they score some points? Sure.

Is their offense that much better than ours? They're averaging less than 30 more yards per game with two games against Rice and Lamar boosting that total.

Through three games they're averaging about 10 more points per game: boosted LARGELY by scoring 73 against Lamar.

They have little balance in their offense...

Again, it's not as bad as some are trying to make it out to be.

 

[TheChief]

I'll say 11 wins. I may be looking thru Crimson colored glasses but I think our secondary will improve with having seen so many spread teams by the time Ole Miss and A&M hit the schedule, we will be prepared.

Good point. I would not have included Ole Miss in the tough four but they are next in line after Florida.

 

[TheChief]

I don't see a team mentioned we can't beat.

Take all of this "fear" with A&M. Will they score some points? Sure.

Is their offense that much better than ours? They're averaging less than 30 more yards per game with two games against Rice and Lamar boosting that total.

Through three games they're averaging about 10 more points per game: boosted LARGELY by scoring 73 against Lamar.

They have little balance in their offense...

Again, it's not as bad as some are trying to make it out to be.

Any team is beatable. It's that pesky matter of doing it. There is great parity in college, even more this year it seems.

Points per game depends on the eyes of the beholder. I'm sure we Bama fans think 52 against Southern Miss is much more worthy than 73 against Lamar. Texas A and M probably thinks their 52 against an SEC opponent, South Carolina, is much more impressive than Bama's 41 against Florida Atlantic - who surrendered 77 to Nebraska. I guess the trick playing A and M will be scoring 50.

 

[BigAl]

I'll be honest with you i fully expect us to win every game we play and i know lack of coaching wont be a factor. It's very possible that we could run the table. We have the players and the talent to get the job done. However the players need more experience and more confidence as they play each game. Dont sell alabama short just yet. This is going to be a very good year.

I don't see a team mentioned we can't beat.

Take all of this "fear" with A&M. Will they score some points? Sure.

Is their offense that much better than ours? They're averaging less than 30 more yards per game with two games against Rice and Lamar boosting that total.

Through three games they're averaging about 10 more points per game: boosted LARGELY by scoring 73 against Lamar.

They have little balance in their offense...

Again, it's not as bad as some are trying to make it out to be.

 

[BamaFan334]

I'm seeing 9-3. I am only hoping two losses, but A&M looks serious, LSU always has something for us, and Auburn is looking pretty unstoppable. Tennessee is going to be a fight. Florida will bring a defense that will focus on Cooper with Hargreaves and cause more trouble than some of you think. Our secondary needs some serious work, we have little to no pass rush. Our offense can't get a play in and we're starting to have injuries mount. We have more talent than anyone in the country, we just have to find the best way to use it. We can go undefeated if we get our act together, but it needs to happen fast, because Florida and Ole Miss will test us pretty good here in the next three weeks.

 

[PhillyGirl]

I see 2-3 losses. I think we CAN beat every team. But I don't believe we WILL beat every team. Not trying to be pessimistic, just trying to look at it realistically for what I see right now.

 

[jdpas29]

A&M and Auburn run a somewhat similar offense with it being a little more run heavy at Auburn and now that Manziel is gone the Aggies are more pass heavy. Of those two i think we match up better against Auburn.

The way that the Aggies are getting their yards is exactly what our defense has had trouble stopping for 3 years now (i'm including the WV game). I don't really see the improvement against the scheme yet. Maybe it will happen. If we can hold those two teams to somewhere around the 24-30 mark i can see us getting a win. If not, i don't think we win a shootout with either.

 

[TerryP]

@TheChief It's not just scoring offense one can lean on.

Look at opponents first downs, or opponents third downs. We're doing well, better than over 90% of the teams in the NCAA, in both categories.

How many times have we allowed opponents in the red zone this season? The answer is six, but even more note worthy is the point there are only around 10 teams with a lower number.

You know, there are only four teams that have had few rushing attempts against them out of the 128 in FBS play. That goes a long way in attributing to the point we're ranked #1 in rushing defense. All they are attempting to do is pass the ball...so, when I see we're allowing @220 yards per game through the air it's not as bad as some make it out to be.

 

[TerryP]

I'll be honest with you i fully expect us to win every game we play and i know lack of coaching wont be a factor. It's very possible that we could run the table. We have the players and the talent to get the job done. However the players need more experience and more confidence as they play each game. Dont sell alabama short just yet. This is going to be a very good year.

I'm certainly not selling this team short especially when I'm seeing improvement with each game.

 

[TerryP]

A&M and Auburn run a somewhat similar offense with it being a little more run heavy at Auburn and now that Manziel is gone the Aggies are more pass heavy. Of those two i think we match up better against Auburn.

The way that the Aggies are getting their yards is exactly what our defense has had trouble stopping for 3 years now (i'm including the WV game). I don't really see the improvement against the scheme yet. Maybe it will happen. If we can hold those two teams to somewhere around the 24-30 mark i can see us getting a win. If not, i don't think we win a shootout with either.

Speaking of Auburn...while the entire purpose of their offense is running as many plays as possible it's interesting to me seeing we're running the same amount of plays as they are. (They ran three fewer plays against Arkansas than San Jose St.)

 

[planomateo]

@TerryP love the data you are throwing out there.

 

[BamaFan334]

I'm certainly not selling this team short especially when I'm seeing improvement with each game.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I have not really seen any improvement. I have seen continuous issues with not getting lined up and plays not getting in on time. Now we have injuries adding up at the wrong time. Don't get me wrong, I've said we can be great, but I'm seeing us lock directly on Cooper, OJ Howard is non-existant, and our defense cannot stop the pass. Use the statistics if you want, but the fact is we haven't played anyone other than West Virginia that even garners attention worth noting. The talent gap alone kept the last two opponents at bay. Once we play Florida I will feel better about using red zone numbers and such, but Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss aren't even remotely close to being able to set up a measurement of.

You know, this gives us stuff to talk about, but I guess I should reserve my judgement till this weekend, because then we'll see what we got. These last two games were a waste and it's time we play some real talent and speed to see how we match up and respond.

 

[TerryP]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I have not really seen any improvement. I have seen continuous issues with not getting lined up and plays not getting in on time. Now we have injuries adding up at the wrong time. Don't get me wrong, I've said we can be great, but I'm seeing us lock directly on Cooper, OJ Howard is non-existant, and our defense cannot stop the pass. Use the statistics if you want, but the fact is we haven't played anyone other than West Virginia that even garners attention worth noting. The talent gap alone kept the last two opponents at bay. Once we play Florida I will feel better about using red zone numbers and such, but Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss aren't even remotely close to being able to set up a measurement of.

You know, this gives us stuff to talk about, but I guess I should reserve my judgement till this weekend, because then we'll see what we got. These last two games were a waste and it's time we play some real talent and speed to see how we match up and respond.

Improvement? The move with Landon playing the Money position in dime paid dividends immediately. We're seeing guys come into their own; Allen is one example. It's interesting everyone talked about Blake and all he was doing was throwing quick outs then we have a game where he doesn't throw a single one and we continue with the same offensive production.

Have you considered that Cooper is the first read in many of our progressions and there hasn't been a defender within five yards of him 75%+ of the time? I don't disagree with the point of having more guys involved. But, if the first guy is as open as Coop has been do you want the QB to move to the second read?

Yes, our defense is allowing passing yards. But, they aren't allowing touchdowns or rushing yards. Rhetorically, I posed a question about a bend but don't break defense a few days ago but I assure you there was a point.

BTW, all those passing yards we gave up against WVU? Did you know there are only two QB's in FBS that have more passing yards than Trickett does?

You can discount stats if you like under the premise we haven't played anyone. But, no one else has either. After three games we're beginning to get a clear picture of what this team is made of just like the other teams around the NCAA.

 

[UAgrad93]

I posted it on another thread about Coop. Kiffin has put Coop in the slot, in motion, etc. to make him the first or second option in the progression. On the deep balls that we have missed, the progression often reads like this. Peek deep to see if your man has a step, if he does send it down, if not break off to 2nd and 3rd progression.

 

[jdpas29]

i will say the confusion on offense concerns me as much as anything. I can only imagine that it will cause more trouble in a loud, non-friendly environment.