🏀 "A tough row to hoe." Looking at the remaining 10 regular season games for the Tide.

[TerryP]

With the criteria for getting an invite to the dance changing yearly it's impossible to say how much stock the selection committee is going to put in the RPI for this years tournament. I know a lot still look at W's and L's, but I think it's pretty safe to say that 20 win mark we used to use as a barometer is long past.

Coming out of last nights win the Tide's RPI sits at 66. IF we use that as a measuring stick, that means Bama is in that last four out or more likely just outside of that group.

The schedule, when looking at the RPI, is daunting. Bama is looking at five road games with three of those teams sitting in the top 50 of the RPI. Out of the 10 games, four of them have teams in that top 50 with only two outside of the top 100.

It's my opinion that the next two games will determine how this team lines up in the eyes of the committee. Personally, I'm more interested in how these games end with regard to when the Tide plays in the SECCG. Unless the format has changed a four seed or higher would give the guys Wednesday and Thursday off/byes.

Here's a quick look:



It's hard to get a read on UArk. They don't appear to be that great of a ball team this season but playing in Fayetteville? They've lost two SEC games at home this season. The first to Florida which makes sense. But, losing at home to Mississippi State? That's a head scratcher.

If this team can win the next two and go into Cola at 8-2?

 

[alagator]

The point Bama is 6-2 in conference play despite the injuries to Hale and King being sick is an example of this staff earning their money.

 

[bradenob]

With the criteria for getting an invite to the dance changing yearly it's impossible to say how much stock the selection committee is going to put in the RPI for this years tournament. I know a lot still look at W's and L's, but I think it's pretty safe to say that 20 win mark we used to use as a barometer is long past.

Coming out of last nights win the Tide's RPI sits at 66. IF we use that as a measuring stick, that means Bama is in that last four out or more likely just outside of that group.

The schedule, when looking at the RPI, is daunting. Bama is looking at five road games with three of those teams sitting in the top 50 of the RPI. Out of the 10 games, four of them have teams in that top 50 with only two outside of the top 100.

It's my opinion that the next two games will determine how this team lines up in the eyes of the committee. Personally, I'm more interested in how these games end with regard to when the Tide plays in the SECCG. Unless the format has changed a four seed or higher would give the guys Wednesday and Thursday off/byes.

Here's a quick look:

View attachment 6460

It's hard to get a read on UArk. They don't appear to be that great of a ball team this season but playing in Fayetteville? They've lost two SEC games at home this season. The first to Florida which makes sense. But, losing at home to Mississippi State? That's a head scratcher.

If this team can win the next two and go into Cola at 8-2?

Good read - going out on my 'homer' limb, I will say we lose to Arky (yeah, they ARE a mystery, and we are playing ok on the road, but Fayetville is tough and we still haven't found our 'identity' and TOs are still BAD), @ USC (good team, we're still gelling) and at home vs UK (incredible talent difference, although never count us out at Coleman). I will certainly take 7-3 during this stretch, including winning at Knoxville, and I think it's doable. Roll Tide!

 

[TerryP]

and we still haven't found our 'identity' and TOs are still BAD),

I'm beginning to believe CAJ has found his rotation and it fits the identity he's been looking for all along.

When he moved Key to the #2 position with Ingram at point it gave the team a bigger lineup. If you recall, when they played UGA Bola got in foul trouble early and Johnson went with two bigs underneath. I've heard him say it's something they've been wanting to do since this roster is built on going inside, hoping the defense collapses, and then looking for that open, good look type of shot.

In that ugly loss to Auburn the team started off that way and then, seemingly, decided they were a three point team in the last four or five minutes of the game. We saw what happened ... a four point lead for AU ended with a 20 point loss for the Tide.

One thing for certain, the Bud Walton Arena isn't an easy place to play. While I don't think we can judge the way this season ends based on Weds. game, I do think it'll be another good indicator on how far this team is/has progressed.

 

[#80]

Well I will start with this the barn game is a must.

 

[psychojoe]

I saw us have Ingram, Norris, Key, Taylor and Hall all on the floor at the same time for a couple of minutes against Georgia. Talk about a big lineup.

If we can find a way to win two of the next four we are in pretty decent shape the rest of the way. Twenty wins going into the SEC tourney would make us 12-6 in league play, and 11-7 in the league would not preclude us getting in with a win or so in the league tourney. I agree that beating the Barners at home is very important.

 

[bama alum]

Well, at least UK is at home.

 

[bradenob]

I'm beginning to believe CAJ has found his rotation and it fits the identity he's been looking for all along.

When he moved Key to the #2 position with Ingram at point it gave the team a bigger lineup. If you recall, when they played UGA Bola got in foul trouble early and Johnson went with two bigs underneath. I've heard him say it's something they've been wanting to do since this roster is built on going inside, hoping the defense collapses, and then looking for that open, good look type of shot.

In that ugly loss to Auburn the team started off that way and then, seemingly, decided they were a three point team in the last four or five minutes of the game. We saw what happened ... a four point lead for AU ended with a 20 point loss for the Tide.

One thing for certain, the Bud Walton Arena isn't an easy place to play. While I don't think we can judge the way this season ends based on Weds. game, I do think it'll be another good indicator on how far this team is/has progressed.

I hear you Terry, and this was addressed in an Al.com article. However, if you have Hall AND Taylor, with Ingram and Key, you have one pretty good 3 pt shooter - Key. Dazon hasn't provided the offense we were counting on yet, although he's doing fine. The 5th guy can be Norris, who is hot and cold from 3 pt range, or Collins, who has shot better from 3 of late. I really like AJ Jr, but he has struggled to shoot from 3 pt range. I have confidence in AJ, but the players above didn't take care of the ball well against Auburn, and only improved a bit in that regard against Miss State. That's the biggest problem - it's what led to the 12 pt swing over 2 minutes at Auburn.

 

[TheChief]

I saw us have Ingram, Norris, Key, Taylor and Hall all on the floor at the same time for a couple of minutes against Georgia. Talk about a big lineup.

If we can find a way to win two of the next four we are in pretty decent shape the rest of the way. Twenty wins going into the SEC tourney would make us 12-6 in league play, and 11-7 in the league would not preclude us getting in with a win or so in the league tourney. I agree that beating the Barners at home is very important.

13-7 overall, 6-2 SEC. Bama has ten games remaining. 6 more wins gets them to 19 overall. It also gets them to 12 wins in the SEC. I've thought for a while now they had to go 13-5 to hit 20 wins. Is my math wrong? I've looked at things wrong before, lots of times. I can't count how many times I've messed up cross country scores (see what I did there?).

 

[TheChief]

The point Bama is 6-2 in conference play despite the injuries to Hale and King being sick is an example of this staff earning their money.

The schedule has been favorable. It doesn't hurt that the SEC is pretty lousy as well. I still agree with you that AJ has earned his money, not only in hard work but performance.

 

[TerryP]

I have confidence in AJ, but the players above didn't take care of the ball well against Auburn, and only improved a bit in that regard against Miss State.

@TheChief touched on development in the MSU thread while discussing UK. One of the things they've dealt with in their close wins, and losses, was winning the turnover battle. I know this isn't the best analogy, but it does remind me of how the game slows down for QB's in football.

A few of the complaints I had about the Grant era in Tuscaloosa were how he didn't engage the fan base: both students and alumni. Another was how badly the team continued losing the on the stat sheet with rebounds. A third, turnovers.

Since CAJ has been in charge we've seen the first one handled very well. He's as engaged with the Bama fan base--in practically every sport--more so than I've seen any coach (with the exception of Murph, but CAJ is more interactive than he's been.) Before playing MSU I noticed the Tide lead the SEC in rebound margins. Now, we're left talking about ball security.

@alabama mike continues to say "he want's to see improvement." If we take those three examples, we're seeing that right now. It's clear that's not enough, but it's also clear the program is improving.

IF everything ended today the Tide would be facing the winner of the Arkansas vs Vanderbilt game on Friday of the SECC tourney. The thing there is ... if Bama were to win that Friday match-up, they'd be looking at the Wildcats on Saturday. :shock:

 

[252BAMA]

5-5. W's- barn, MO, LSU, UGA, and Ole Mi$$.

 

[psychojoe]

I think 8-2 is as likely a 5-5. Arkansas,aTm, UT RE ll winnable road games, and we have played well on the road except for the last ten minutes of the game with thw barners.

 

[TheChief]

Collins - grad senior, Hale - senior - hurt right now apparently, Olaniyan - grad senior - add those. Junior is a redshirt soph. UK, UT, and AU have fewer games played by their participants than Bama. Taylor and Norris together probably have played more games than the entire UT starting lineup.

I've watched every game but one. You have more confidence in beating Auburn than me, but I hope you're right.

 

[alabama mike]

Looking at the games on paper, I along with just about anyone else will say we lose to U.K. And S.C.
All of the home games with the exception of U.K. MUST be wins. Missouri, A&M and UT are all winnable games if we play well. Arkansas is a tough place to play and come out as a win. Personally, I am counting this as our third loss.

I have been pleased with the direction this team is going because we are seeing many of the things we are discussing in this thread. CAJ has the ship turned in the right direction IMO. Hopefully, we will see a quick return to the Plaid Palace and basketball making a return on the national scene.

 

[bradenob]

I just have to say that I agree we are improving, but..... wait'll next year!!

Nick King will be back and will contribute. AJ Jr. will be a true point. Donta Hall will be a beast, but we will also have Daniel Giddens coming in, who will hopefully add some muscle to his 6'11" frame. Dazon should be improved as a scorer. Lookout for Key - unless there is a soph slump he will be beast mode! Norris will be a senior, and so will Armond Davis. Those two should give us a good threat from 3 pt range. AND...

Colin Sexton is coming! The guy is a 6'2" acrobat who can deal and dash - this guy will come in like the typical UK frosh and be starting. He is FUN to watch and has the swag. John Petty needs to add some weight but is a combo guard at 6'5" who has a good outside shot - Calipari definitely wanted him. Alex Reese has had some knee and foot problems but is playing well, and at 6'9" 225 should give us a bit of help down low, defend well, and score - has a nice shot, a bit like Key. Herb Jones is a long 6'8" SG and should provide good D and an outside shot. Galin Smith is a project perhaps, but at 6'9.5" and 220, can really help if he'll add some weight.

Expect a lot more of the high-low-high offense that AJ likes with these additions. Also expect less half court and more pushing the ball up with these additions. Next year there will be more speed and less turnovers.

At this point, the only player loss that I see hurting is Jimmy Taylor - Collins won't be missed as AJ Jr and Ingram return, improved, and Sexton comes in. Petty will provide some of the 3 pt offense we lose with Collins. If Hall improves and Daniel Giddens shows up at all, Taylor is replaced easily.

Buckle up and ROLL TIDE!