Man, I hope we get to host! #16 SOS AND #9 RPI should be good enough. I think our series at Vandy and at UF might be our undoing though.
Been cleaning up from our nice sunrise storm this morning and thinking about all this...
As it pertains to Bama's hosting chances....
The Bad
They are only going to take so many SEC schools in the top 16 and they call them regionals for a reason (now more so than ever). So many teams ahead of Bama like auburn, UGA, LSU, and Vandy for example really saturate out "region".
Along those same lines, Ole Miss is squarely in the hosting picture too... another team in Bama's footprint. As is Southern Miss and Georgia Tech, and at least either (or both) of those would give the committee another conference(s) (hosting) in the pot.
Alabama dropping their final series, and frankly, not playing all that well in the process. They sure didn't,
go and take anything like you'd like to see a team on the bubble do. Add to that, Florida's late season surge, and them
going and taking it from Bama (especially on Friday), has to at least have them in the hosting conversation now. Personally, I think they'll end up as a 2 seed, but if they go on a run in Hoover, I'll backtrack on that.
This shouldn't factor in too much with the level of SEC play, but Bama's (early season) OOC scheduling won't do them a lot of favors.
Alabama drawing Mizzou in the SECT... a team that has zero value and offers Bama no boost even if the Tide wins 14-0.
The Good
Bama sits at a very respectable 9th in the RPI (for now).
They are currently 14-11 in Quad 1 games, a win % better than UGA, Vandy, and Oregon State who are all ahead of Bama in the RPI.
Bama is currently 12th in the KPI rankings... a pretty good place to be. This rankings are factored into the process by the committee. Bama is ahead of teams like Ole Miss, Oregon State, and Coastal Carolina...
They got to that usually magic number of 16 SEC wins. This isn't a hard rule that must be followed by any means, but it's usually the watermark that safely puts a team in the hosting category, especially when other factors like RPI back it up (and in this case, it does).
Bama's victory over Southern Miss may loom large. Looking back, it's good Bama didn't drop that game at least. Same can be said for their win over Coastal Carolina early in the season. Head to head results isn't the end all be all, and they don't have to follow it, but it is a data point used in the process.
Other Comments
The Vols are, IMO, on the wrong side of the bubble. But again, a Hoover run could change all that. The loser of that likely Bama vs. Tennessee matchup on Wednesday though can't be feeling too confident about their chances... though as it stands today, I'd give UA a very slight edge over the Vols based on data points. The series win for the Vols though, keeps them really, really close.
SEC teams that are safe in terms of hosting... Texas, Arkansas, LSU, Vandy, Georgia, auburn... with the first 5 pretty much being locks for the top 8 seeds. auburn probably deserves it too, but I winder if the conference numbers game causes them to slide to #9? Probably wishful thinking.
SEC teams battling for one of those 9-16 regional hosting spots... Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida. I think at most, 3 of these teams get in, no fewer than 2. Trying to remove bias, based on their numbers, I still like Bama's chances... but if they lose to the Vols on Wednesday, they may need some help.
I'm sure I'm leaving off a thing or two that will hit me later... but that's how I see it as of now. Bottom line, Bama needs to win these next 2 and they are safe (in terms of hosting), IMO.
