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Alabama football lapping the field at turning 5-stars into first-round picks
The 2017 college football season and the 2018 NFL Draft have come and gone, and one thing is a certainty exiting the events – Alabama reigns supreme. The Crimson Tide won the national championship and then they won the draft, having a record-setting 12 players selected. No other FBS team had more than seven draftees.
Yet that doesn’t truly describe Alabama’s dominance.
There will be some that think, “Of course Alabama had the most players drafted. They get the best recruits.” That is true. But it’s also not a holistic look at what makes the Crimson Tide great under Nick Saban. Instead, one needs to examine Alabama’s NFL factory process; the rate at which the program transforms elite high school talent into NFL players. To do so, 247Sports looked at every five-star prospect of the Saban era and their eventual NFL Draft future. That means players from the 2008 recruiting class (Saban’s first full cycle at Alabama) to the 2015 recruiting classes (the most recent class with draft eligibility), excluding any athletes who remain in college.
There are 241 247Sports Composite five-star players from college football in that period – the elite of elite coming out of high school.
Alabama, unsurprisingly, signed the highest total of those at 29. But that’s not the important number. To truly grade development you must observe the number of those recruits who became first-round picks. That’s the full college cycle of development — a choice prospect comes in and a highly-regarded NFL talent comes out.
Fourteen of those 29 eventually became a first-round pick in Tuscaloosa, a rate of 48.3 percent that doesn’t count six other Crimson Tide five-stars that were second-round picks.
For some needed perspective on that number, let’s look at how the other FBS teams fared.
Take away Alabama’s 29 five-star players from that window, and there are 212 five-star recruits. Some schools have had a lot (Florida State: 24) in that 2008-15 period, while others have had just one (13 different schools). Taken together, the number of first-round picks from that five-star pool minus Alabama is 36.
That’s a hit rate of only 17 percent.
Think about that. Alabama’s five-star recruits are picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school are selected at a 17-percent clip. A five-star prospect who picks Alabama is more than doubly likely be selected in the first round than if he goes anywhere else.
The numbers don’t stop there. Alabama’s five-star recruits as a whole in that 2008-15 recruiting period are drafted at a 75.9 percent clip. Earlier this week, 247Sports looked at draft data from the last two years and found that five-star recruits are generally picked at around a 61 percent ratio. Take away Alabama’s yearly haul from that group, and the percentage drops to 54.2.
So while 75.9 percent of Alabama five-star players are drafted in the Saban era, only 54.2 of all others hear their named called.
That’s a staggering gap in development. It also helps explain just why the Tide have been so dominant.
Yes, Alabama generally recruits better players than anyone else. Seven straight No. 1 overall classes from 2011 to 2017 are evidence of that. But where the Crimson Tide really separate themselves from everyone else is what they do with those recruits once they arrive on campus.
Here are the percentages of five-star recruits that became first-round picks from other programs that signed 10-plus such players from 2008-15: Florida (29.4%), LSU (21.4%), Georgia (18.8%), Florida State (16.7%), USC (15.8) and Ohio State (0%).
Is it any wonder the Crimson Tide have dominated during this stretch?
This is not a perfect example of development, of course. For example, Ohio State is producing plenty of first round draft picks even if a stretch of five-star recruits didn’t turn into superstars. Five-stars also make up a small percentage of every recruiting class. Development of all other recruits is at least equally important and more likely paramount.
But Alabama’s constant development of these five-stars does show why it’s been so good during Saban's regime.
The Crimson Tide sign the best players, and then they keep them that way.
It’s why Alabama just won its fifth national title in 10 years. It’s also why the Crimson Tide show no signs of stopping. Saban not only identifies the best players, he continually makes them better. That’s the real separator during this Alabama reign in college football.
The 2017 college football season and the 2018 NFL Draft have come and gone, and one thing is a certainty exiting the events – Alabama reigns supreme. The Crimson Tide won the national championship and then they won the draft, having a record-setting 12 players selected. No other FBS team had more than seven draftees.
Yet that doesn’t truly describe Alabama’s dominance.
There will be some that think, “Of course Alabama had the most players drafted. They get the best recruits.” That is true. But it’s also not a holistic look at what makes the Crimson Tide great under Nick Saban. Instead, one needs to examine Alabama’s NFL factory process; the rate at which the program transforms elite high school talent into NFL players. To do so, 247Sports looked at every five-star prospect of the Saban era and their eventual NFL Draft future. That means players from the 2008 recruiting class (Saban’s first full cycle at Alabama) to the 2015 recruiting classes (the most recent class with draft eligibility), excluding any athletes who remain in college.
There are 241 247Sports Composite five-star players from college football in that period – the elite of elite coming out of high school.
Alabama, unsurprisingly, signed the highest total of those at 29. But that’s not the important number. To truly grade development you must observe the number of those recruits who became first-round picks. That’s the full college cycle of development — a choice prospect comes in and a highly-regarded NFL talent comes out.
Fourteen of those 29 eventually became a first-round pick in Tuscaloosa, a rate of 48.3 percent that doesn’t count six other Crimson Tide five-stars that were second-round picks.
For some needed perspective on that number, let’s look at how the other FBS teams fared.
Take away Alabama’s 29 five-star players from that window, and there are 212 five-star recruits. Some schools have had a lot (Florida State: 24) in that 2008-15 period, while others have had just one (13 different schools). Taken together, the number of first-round picks from that five-star pool minus Alabama is 36.
That’s a hit rate of only 17 percent.
Think about that. Alabama’s five-star recruits are picked in the first round at a rate of 48.3 percent, while five-star recruits that go to any other school are selected at a 17-percent clip. A five-star prospect who picks Alabama is more than doubly likely be selected in the first round than if he goes anywhere else.
The numbers don’t stop there. Alabama’s five-star recruits as a whole in that 2008-15 recruiting period are drafted at a 75.9 percent clip. Earlier this week, 247Sports looked at draft data from the last two years and found that five-star recruits are generally picked at around a 61 percent ratio. Take away Alabama’s yearly haul from that group, and the percentage drops to 54.2.
So while 75.9 percent of Alabama five-star players are drafted in the Saban era, only 54.2 of all others hear their named called.
That’s a staggering gap in development. It also helps explain just why the Tide have been so dominant.
Yes, Alabama generally recruits better players than anyone else. Seven straight No. 1 overall classes from 2011 to 2017 are evidence of that. But where the Crimson Tide really separate themselves from everyone else is what they do with those recruits once they arrive on campus.
Here are the percentages of five-star recruits that became first-round picks from other programs that signed 10-plus such players from 2008-15: Florida (29.4%), LSU (21.4%), Georgia (18.8%), Florida State (16.7%), USC (15.8) and Ohio State (0%).
Is it any wonder the Crimson Tide have dominated during this stretch?
This is not a perfect example of development, of course. For example, Ohio State is producing plenty of first round draft picks even if a stretch of five-star recruits didn’t turn into superstars. Five-stars also make up a small percentage of every recruiting class. Development of all other recruits is at least equally important and more likely paramount.
But Alabama’s constant development of these five-stars does show why it’s been so good during Saban's regime.
The Crimson Tide sign the best players, and then they keep them that way.
It’s why Alabama just won its fifth national title in 10 years. It’s also why the Crimson Tide show no signs of stopping. Saban not only identifies the best players, he continually makes them better. That’s the real separator during this Alabama reign in college football.
