🏈 Who has the edge?

[Alabama17Tide]

ALABAMA NOTEBOOK: Who has the edge?
Tommy Deas | Staff
Alabama, Clemson similar in many ways
Defending national champion Alabama and Clemson are similar in many ways, statistically speaking, as they head into next Monday's rematch for the College Football Playoff Championship in Tampa.

The Crimson Tide defeated Clemson 45-40 last year in Glendale, Ariz., for the national title.

SEC champion Alabama brings a 14-0 record into the title tilt, with Clemson coming in at 13-1. The Tigers won the ACC championship.

Clemson has the edge on offense; ranking 12th nationally in total offense at better than 503 yards per game. Alabama is 31st, averaging almost 461 yards per game. In scoring offense, however, the two are almost dead even, with Alabama 14th at 39.4 points per game and Clemson 13th with a 39.5-point average.

Alabama has the advantage in rushing offense, ranking 11th at 246.7 yards per game to Clemson's 62nd at 175.36 yards per game. The Tigers are better through the air, ranking seventh at 327.8 passing yards per game to Alabama's 81st with a 214.2-yard average.

Alabama's defense rates higher across the board. UA ranks No. 1 in scoring defense (11.4 points per game), rushing defense (62 yards per game) and total defense (244 yards per game), and 14th in pass defense (182 yards per game). Clemson ranks eighth in total defense (306.9 yards per game), seventh in scoring defense (17.1 points per game), 16th in pass defense (183.8 yards per game) and 19th in rushing defense (123.1 yards per game).

Alabama has an edge in turnover margin. The Crimson Tide is plus-8 on the year, while Clemson is plus-1.

The most marked contrasts show on defense. Clemson has given up 34 points or more four times this season – 34 in a win over Florida State, 35 in a win over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, 36 to Louisville in a victory and 43 to Pitt in a loss. The Tigers have two shutouts, versus South Carolina State and Syracuse. Alabama has two shutouts – against Kent State and LSU – and allowed 30 or more points just twice: in wins over Ole Miss (43) and Arkansas (30).

Ratings up

Television ratings for this year's College Football Playoff semifinal games were up, especially for Alabama in the afternoon matchup. The Crimson Tide drew a 10.9 overnight rating for their victory over Washington, drawing 19.344 million viewers on ESPN and ESPN2 for a 12 percent increase over the previous year's afternoon semifinal between Clemson and Oklahoma. The game drew a 42.1 share in the Birmingham market.

The Clemson-Ohio State semifinal was up about 5 percent over the previous year's evening game between Alabama and Michigan State with a 10.5 overnight rating.

Punting battle

Alabama punter JK Scott was a key contributor in the Peach Bowl semifinal victory over Washington. He punted eight times for a 45.9-yard average, pinning Washington inside its own 10-yard line three times. Washington's average starting position after a punt was inside its own 19-yard line.

"In games like this one, where there's a lot of punting, you've definitely got to be ready to go," Scott said in the UA locker room after the game. "You've got to be ready every game, but punting was definitely more of a factor in this game."

Scott said he had more "sky punts" – high punts that are designed to be downed or caught by someone on the punting unit, in this game.

"That was definitely interesting," he said. "We haven't had a lot of those this year, and we had so many in this game.

"One of them, my gunner, Levi Wallace, got down there and just caught it right there. That would be ideal because it takes out all the variables."

Scott has one of the biggest legs in college football, and would be eligible to enter the NFL Draft at the end of this, his junior season. He said that's not going to happen.

"You know what? God's got a plan for me beyond football in Tuscaloosa, and He's in control," Scott said. "He's doing amazing things in our team. He's got me where he's got me."

Snap the dang ball

UA head coach Nick Saban could be seen on the sideline screaming an expletive when Alabama failed to get off a snap against Washington and got a delay of game penalty, one of two drawn by UA in the contest.

"The whole game we kept shooting ourselves in the foot," center Bradley Bozeman said. "That can't happen. That's just negative yards that we caused."

Bozeman took responsibility for the one that had Saban so upset.

"I got the wrong play," he said. "The quarterback was on one play, I was on another play. It didn't really work out the way we wanted it to. It was kind of one of those flustered moments."

Reach Tommy Deas at tommy@tidesports.com or at 205-722

College Football Playoff National Championship

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson

Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa

When: Jan. 9 at 7 p.m. CT

Records: Alabama 14-0, Clemson 13-1

TV: ESPN

Radio: 95.3 FM, 102.9 FM


TideSports.com - ALABAMA NOTEBOOK: Who has the edge?

 

[jdpas29]

Clemson has the edge at this point IMO due to the ineptitude in our passing game. Our defense is the biggest factor in the game though... so a tough call.

I think it will likely be a close game with the likelihood of a win by larger margin favoring Clemson due to their offensive prowess.

It is interesting to see how they have given up so many points to some teams that they really shouldn't have... it could be that Bama's offense will return to better looking form against their D that may be lacking a bit in some areas. Wouldn't that be nice

 

[TUSKtimes]

Here's what I know about college football, the next game has nothing to do with the last game. Much less to even suggest that the last time we played a certain team has absolutely anything to do with this time. New time, new place, new time continuum. We are what we bring to the dance Monday night. We have the Jimmy's and Joe's to win any game we show up for. And finally, my mantra has been, will alway be, great defense beats great offense and somewhere close by we have the national championship trophies to prove it. And with this special bunch, one more on the way.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

Here's what I know about college football, the next game has nothing to do with the last game. Much less to even suggest that the last time we played a certain team has absolutely anything to do with this time. New time, new place, new time continuum. We are what we bring to the dance Monday night. We have the Jimmy's and Joe's to win any game we show up for. And finally, my mantra has been, will alway be, great defense beats great offense and somewhere close by we have the national championship trophies to prove it. And with this special bunch, one more on the way.

X-factor on O for us is Sark. He's a bit more power run-oriented than Kiffin, and likes to pass when he wants to, not so much when needed.

Watch us go to a ground and pound more on 1st down, and sprinkle in play-action passing on 2nd and short (which would really keep the D guessing). That would've seemed to be the recipe for success against UW, but Kiffin likes to pass on 1st down.

Their respective leans seem to be counter intuitive, though. Sark is widely considered to be the better QB developer of the 2, which one would think to mean he'd be more pass-happy. Not the case. You'd also think that since Kiffin isn't quite the QB developer, he'd lean more on the run in early downs.

 

[TUSKtimes]

X-factor on O for us is Sark. He's a bit more power run-oriented than Kiffin, and likes to pass when he wants to, not so much when needed.

Watch us go to a ground and pound more on 1st down, and sprinkle in play-action passing on 2nd and short (which would really keep the D guessing). That would've seemed to be the recipe for success against UW, but Kiffin likes to pass on 1st down.

Their respective leans seem to be counter intuitive, though. Sark is widely considered to be the better QB developer of the 2, which one would think to mean he'd be more pass-happy. Not the case. You'd also think that since Kiffin isn't quite the QB developer, he'd lean more on the run in early downs.

Thank the lawd on the power run stuff. I recently YouTubed the Clemson/Pittsburgh deal a few weeks ago and what you mentioned would seem like a good idea. The Panthers and Conners were toting the rock and stop me if you've seen this before, but their TE confused the secondary the whole game. They threw a ton off their play-action stuff with Conners.

 

[planomateo]

Defense can't be happy with the results of the game last year.

Pruitt vs Clemson stats are interesting as a DC, just saying.

2013 Clemson @ FSU
2014 Clemson @ UGA

 

[TUSKtimes]

Defense can't be happy with the results of the game last year.

Pruitt vs Clemson stats are interesting as a DC, just saying.

2013 Clemson @ FSU
2014 Clemson @ UGA

I do believe that Pruitt is a different animal in his approach to playing uber agressive offensives. Be uber agressive yourself and simplify for speed and accuracy. At the expense of giving up a few big plays to guys like Williams, because they are good at what they do, I think Pruitt will man up and bring the heat throughout. Kirby wanted to mush rush and Watson had way too much time and stayed in rhythm and on time. Hell, he looked like an air traffic controller out there. When we finally spied Watson with Evans we put some tough licks on him when he left the pocket. But that was only after everything else was exhausted. A lot more heat and attention will be on the QB from the get go.

 

[ColAngus]

Clemson's defense is most similar (in terms of ability) to what team on our schedule?

Is their defense as good as Auburn's? If not, who?

 

[UAgrad93]

A couple of stats that stand out to me. Watson has thrown 17 ints this year. 17!! The Clemson defense has been on the field for 58 more snaps than the BAMA defense. They have given up 880 more yards. 880!!! That is an average of 15.1 yards per play. They are good, but not as good as last year.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

A couple of stats that stand out to me. Watson has thrown 17 ints this year. 17!! The Clemson defense has been on the field for 58 more snaps than the BAMA defense. They have given up 880 more yards. 880!!! That is an average of 15.1 yards per play. They are good, but not as good as last year.

Like I said in another thread, they're a shell of the Clemson team we played a year ago.

 

[rick4bama]

During the game, it was said that Clemson had more PI than any schools this year. This may help some way when Hurts does pass the football. Did anyone else heard this?

 

[musso]

Man you guys are using crimson-colored lenses! Hope you guys are right, but in my opinion Clemson looked dominant against Ohio St. Yes I know Ohio St's OL was suspect, but given the Kiffin chaos, Hurts' gradual regression from maybe the Tenn game, our lack of depth on defense, I see about a 17-21 point loss coming to us. Hurts might develop into a championship caliber QB, but he isn't there yet. And the Clemson D front looks monstrous!

 

[riz]

I know we run the ball and stop the run better. That's good.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Man you guys are using crimson-colored lenses! Hope you guys are right, but in my opinion Clemson looked dominant against Ohio St. Yes I know Ohio St's OL was suspect, but given the Kiffin chaos, Hurts' gradual regression from maybe the Tenn game, our lack of depth on defense, I see about a 17-21 point loss coming to us. Hurts might develop into a championship caliber QB, but he isn't there yet. And the Clemson D front looks monstrous!

Basically, everything I've read about this matchup has been about the season, or last year's matchup so far. Are you comfortable with your sample size?

 

[musso]

Basically, everything I've read about this matchup has been about the season, or last year's matchup so far. Are you comfortable with your sample size?

Well you need to realize that the inherent bias of pre-game hype is to emphasize the relevance and importance of history, statistics, and as many other tangential elements as possible. After all, this is what you'd expect the media to do because they need to commodify and commercialize fan anticipation. The whole industry requires preoccupation with the past, so uh yeah, of course everything you've read has included the whole season and last year's meeting.

But how many times do we hear coaches in big games say that what happened last year doesn't affect this game ... or ... it's a one game season ... or it's up to the current players on the current roster with the current coaches, etc.

My point ISN'T that history and stats don't matter AT ALL. Of course they do, but my point is that a team's trending performance can matter more, given how different each team's semis went and the Kiffin drama. But like I said, you can also look at Hurts seemingly hitting a wall weeks ago (unsurprising for a fresh), our depth issues (when last year's deeper defense got exhausted against Watson), and how fortunate we were to win last season EVEN AFTER all the injuries and suspensions to key Clemson players.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Well you need to realize that the inherent bias of pre-game hype is to emphasize the relevance and importance of history, statistics, and as many other tangential elements as possible. After all, this is what you'd expect the media to do because they need to commodify and commercialize fan anticipation. The whole industry requires preoccupation with the past, so uh yeah, of course everything you've read has included the whole season and last year's meeting.

Yep, and that's why I steer as clear from foolish ESPN rhetoric as humanly possible. In short, they're well-paid liars.

My point ISN'T that history and stats don't matter AT ALL. Of course they do, but my point is that a team's trending performance can matter more, given how different each team's semis went and the Kiffin drama. But like I said, you can also look at Hurts seemingly hitting a wall weeks ago (unsurprising for a fresh), our depth issues (when last year's deeper defense got exhausted against Watson), and how fortunate we were to win last season EVEN AFTER all the injuries and suspensions to key Clemson players.

Given that last season's sample size actually includes the same two teams in the finals, it's at least worth a note. Bama coming off of a 38-0 beat down of Sparty. Clemson having to come from behind at halftime vs Oklahoma to pull it out. In Atlanta, Bama whipped up on Florida and Clemson was actually a terrible onside kick call from losing to NC in their CCG. What did each team's 'trending' have to do with the final score in the championship game?

 

[musso]

Given that last season's sample size actually includes the same two teams in the finals, it's at least worth a note. Bama coming off of a 38-0 beat down of Sparty. Clemson having to come from behind at halftime vs Oklahoma to pull it out. In Atlanta, Bama whipped up on Florida and Clemson was actually a terrible onside kick call from losing to NC in their CCG. What did each team's 'trending' have to do with the final score in the championship game?

Well I think you must account for the difference in playing a conference title game on the heels of the grueling regular season and preparing for the Semis with nearly a month off. When I say recent trends matter, that implies continuity. Let's face it, only 1 of the 6 Semis has been competitive.

Secondly, you must account for the greater ability to predict the national championship 10 days after a Semi-final than a semi-final 3-plus weeks from the regular season.

Thirdly, you must account for how dynamic offenses, particularly with Heisman-contending QBs, can challenge ANY defense. The corollary is how traditional/pocket QBs never have a chance against Saban's defense.

Fourthly, let's account for playing a clearly inferior opponent in a mandatory conference title game, which Florida has clearly been the last two times. UF's offense and team in general has been unusually thin and banged up walking into ATL the past two times.

So ... I'm not making any claims about predicting Semi-final games, especially when involving explosive QBs (Mayfield, Watson, etc.). I do think you can expect any team with a traditional QB to have zero chance against our D, especially with extra time for Saban to prepare. However, I think you can use the Semis to help you forecast the national title. And it's difficult to imagine a more divergent offensive trajectory between two teams entering the national title game than that of Clemson and Alabama. It wouldn't matter so much if Clemson was employing a pocket QB. Instead, he's the best in college football since Cam, according to Saban.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Well I think you must account for the difference in playing a conference title game on the heels of the grueling regular season and preparing for the Semis with nearly a month off. When I say recent trends matter, that implies continuity. Let's face it, only 1 of the 6 Semis has been competitive.

Secondly, you must account for the greater ability to predict the national championship 10 days after a Semi-final than a semi-final 3-plus weeks from the regular season.

Thirdly, you must account for how dynamic offenses, particularly with Heisman-contending QBs, can challenge ANY defense. The corollary is how traditional/pocket QBs never have a chance against Saban's defense.

Fourthly, let's account for playing a clearly inferior opponent in a mandatory conference title game, which Florida has clearly been the last two times. UF's offense and team in general has been unusually thin and banged up walking into ATL the past two times.

So ... I'm not making any claims about predicting Semi-final games, especially when involving explosive QBs (Mayfield, Watson, etc.). I do think you can expect any team with a traditional QB to have zero chance against our D, especially with extra time for Saban to prepare. However, I think you can use the Semis to help you forecast the national title. And it's difficult to imagine a more divergent offensive trajectory between two teams entering the national title game than that of Clemson and Alabama. It wouldn't matter so much if Clemson was employing a pocket QB. Instead, he's the best in college football since Cam, according to Saban.

Good grief musso, you just chastised one and all for our 'crimson colored glasses." There is enough emotionalism in your analysis to qualify you for boostership status in among the orange and purple. I can't tell you to like where Bama is at this point and time, but you sweeping generalities about opponents, talent, and trends, is shortsighted at best. Fans will look at their team with more passion than logic and that's the fun of it. It's not science, it's football, try to have some fun.

 

[musso]

Chastised??? I wouldn't say I did that. I just was noting how uniformly everyone's comments were about Bama winning. And I'm having fun, but fun to me is discussing critical concerns and possible challenges about the next game. I don't need any sunshine pumping. I'm already a big enough fan. I want critical analysis from you all.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Chastised??? I wouldn't say I did that. I just was noting how uniformly everyone's comments were about Bama winning. And I'm having fun, but fun to me is discussing critical concerns and possible challenges about the next game. I don't need any sunshine pumping. I'm already a big enough fan. I want critical analysis from you all.

Alright, but frankly, we're about one game away from heading back to the dark side of the moon, so I'm pumping some serious sunshine as we go for number 15. Next time we talk crimson, I'll bring my slide rule.