🏈 Week Ten Opening Betting Lines of interest AL/GA/ND

[Portside]

I know it's early, but I'm getting a little nervous about this game. Sooth my ill

 

[TerryP]

Favorites? As in the early lines?

A head to head match-up gives Bama -14.

It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the Vegas lines to be a point to a point and a half higher...

 

[252BAMA]

BOnline opened at -14. Already moved to -141/2.

College Football Lines: Live College Football Point Spreads & Odds

 

[#80]

ALA -14
LSU

GA -10
KY

ND -7
NW

I think if ND is to lose a regular season game this is it.

 

[rocknthefreeworld]

I like statistics. They don't tell you everything but they do tell you something. Looking at scoring mainly here. All averages do not include the game against Bama/LSU as that could skew things.

LSU averages 30 points per game and allows 15. LSU low and high were 19 and 45 scoring and 0 and 27 allowed respectively. They outscore their opponents average by 9 (low of -5 and high of 22) and allow 19 less points (low of 32 less and high of 6 less) on average than their opponents usually score.


Bama averages 54 points per game and scores 16. Bama low and high were 39 and 65 scoring and 7 and 31 allowed respectively). They outscore their opponents average by 25 (low of 12 and high of 35) and allow 16 less points (low of 36 less and high of 5 more) on average than their opponents usually score.

On yardage, Bama has held their opponents to 130 yards less than their average while LSU managed to hold them 50 less than the average. Bama also outgained the average by 150 while LSU was outgaining the average by 40.

There is only one head to head matchup to look at so far as they have both played Ole Miss. Bama beat them 62-7 and LSU beat them 45-16. In the Bama game, Tua was out with 7:18 left in the second quarter. Burrow played the entire LSU game.

So, with all that together, I come up with a final score of 38-20 Bama. That does assume Tua rides the pine for 1-2 quarters though since that is what all the averages are from.

 

[sean]

Spoiler

I like statistics. They don't tell you everything but they do tell you something. Looking at scoring mainly here. All averages do not include the game against Bama/LSU as that could skew things.

LSU averages 30 points per game and allows 15. LSU low and high were 19 and 45 scoring and 0 and 27 allowed respectively. They outscore their opponents average by 9 (low of -5 and high of 22) and allow 19 less points (low of 32 less and high of 6 less) on average than their opponents usually score.


Bama averages 54 points per game and scores 16. Bama low and high were 39 and 65 scoring and 7 and 31 allowed respectively). They outscore their opponents average by 25 (low of 12 and high of 35) and allow 16 less points (low of 36 less and high of 5 more) on average than their opponents usually score.

On yardage, Bama has held their opponents to 130 yards less than their average while LSU managed to hold them 50 less than the average. Bama also outgained the average by 150 while LSU was outgaining the average by 40.

There is only one head to head matchup to look at so far as they have both played Ole Miss. Bama beat them 62-7 and LSU beat them 45-16. In the Bama game, Tua was out with 7:18 left in the second quarter. Burrow played the entire LSU game.

So, with all that together, I come up with a final score of 38-20 Bama. That does assume Tua rides the pine for 1-2 quarters though since that is what all the averages are from.

hell i'll take that any year, any venue, over any team.

 

[JoshB]

Favorites? As in the early lines?

A head to head match-up gives Bama -14.

It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the Vegas lines to be a point to a point and a half higher...

What is your profile pic? An X-ray of Tua's knee?

 

[planomateo]

What is your profile pic? An X-ray of Tua's knee?

Frames of a golf club during swing, see the tee at the bottom.

 

[JoshB]

What is your profile pic? An X-ray of Tua's knee?

Frames of a golf club during swing, see the tee at the bottom.

:rolf:
I legitimately thought that was an X-Ray of a spine or something lol

 

[rick4bama]

It 14, 141/2 across the board now

 

[252BAMA]

The last time LSU was this large of an underdog at home, they lost by 21. 31-10 to UF in 1999. The same UF that Bama beat twice!

LSU (+14.5) biggest home underdog since 1999

 

[Skipz]

So, with all that together, I come up with a final score of 38-20 Bama. That does assume Tua rides the pine for 1-2 quarters though since that is what all the averages are from.

This is an important point not to be overlooked. If Tua actually DOES stay in the full game, how many more scores do you think he would account for? The final Alabama score could certainly be 45 or higher.

 

[alabama mike]

So, with all that together, I come up with a final score of 38-20 Bama. That does assume Tua rides the pine for 1-2 quarters though since that is what all the averages are from.

This is an important point not to be overlooked. If Tua actually DOES stay in the full game, how many more scores do you think he would account for? The final Alabama score could certainly be 45 or higher.

That will depend on whether or not CNS calls the dogs off with a big lead. The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing. Just win baby!

 

[ColAngus]

Bama line has moved to -13.5. Early money on LSU and the points, playing up the home dog.

 

[TerryP]

Bama line has moved to -13.5. Early money on LSU and the points, playing up the home dog.

Early money went on Bama in this game in Vegas. VI consensus opened at -14 and within a few hours it was at -14.5. There have been five point changes today. There's really not a lot of money movement as much as it evening bets out by what I'm seeing. Notice the -113 to -105 to -110?




Offshore is hanging tight where it opened as well.

 

[ColAngus]

Interesting. Where do you track the line movements?

 

[TerryP]

Interesting. Where do you track the line movements?

Most of the betting sites on line have the line history.

VI consensus

That's where I pulled those screen shots. I know covers reports on history, you're other offshore books do as well.

On a separate note--through conversations over the years I've always been told that the offshore books give a more accurate line than your Vegas/Atlantic City books. A lot of your state-side books don't take as much money early on as your offshore books so those tend to give a more accurate measure.

It's a bit ironic this comes up. I know Danny's BIL very well and he's brought up Danny's comments to me on occasion. This subject is no different. As often as Danny is wrong, he's right on this one.



**On a different note, a minor observation. A lot of people question -14. Yet, Bama beat LSU last year by 14 in a game where Jalen completed 45% of his passes.

 

[ColAngus]

Gotcha. I just normally look at the Yahoo Sports app which just gives the current line. Betting sites are blocked at work.

 

[TerryP]

Betting sites are blocked at work.

That sucks. Understandable, but still sucks.

I get work places blocking Netflix, et. al. A person can lose an hour or two watching a movie but how long are you going to be looking at the lines of football games? (UNLESS they think you're going to be playing cards, etc.?)

 

[#80]

I'm looking forward to seeing a total on this game.