šŸ“ Visualizing Alabama's recruiting dominance

Max

Member
When it comes to recruiting, Nick Saban has everybody playing for second place.

See that stubborn red line below that refuses to squiggle like all the other squiggly lines? That’s Alabama.


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In each of the last six recruiting cycles, Alabama has signed the top-ranked class, according to the 247Sports Composite team rankings. This chart visualizes the class ranking for every team that has signed a Top 5 recruiting class in any of the last six years — 13 teams in all. None among the baker’s dozen has fallen out of the Top 15 in any of these five years. But nobody has been able to keep the Crimson Tide from the top, either.

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The above chart shows the 15 teams who have averaged at least 250 Composite recruiting points over the last six years. And in studying it, we see just how much separation Alabama has created between itself and the rest of the competition.

Saban has led the Crimson Tide to averaging 311.93 Composite recruiting points each year for the last six years — 22.34 more than the next best team (Ohio State) and the only team to average at least 300 points during that span. The average FBS team had 165.1 recruiting points per year over the last six years — less than half what Alabama averaged in that same stretch.

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This is another chart visualizing those same 15 teams’ recruiting performance over the same six years. Here we see how they recruited relative to an average FBS team during that span, measured by standard deviations from the mean using the same Composite recruiting points metric from the previous two charts.

These are the only 15 teams at least 1.5 standard deviations above the mean, with Alabama being one of four to accumulate enough recruiting points to be at least two standard deviations above the mean. Alabama’s lead this time is nearly four-tenths of a standard deviation.

For reference, in a normal distribution, one would expect about 0.5% of observations — or 1 in every 200 — to be as far above the mean as Alabama is here, 2.58 standard deviations above the mean.

Long story short: Year in and year out, Nick Saban has dominated the recruiting trail at a rate that nobody can keep up with.

Visualizing Alabama's recruiting dominance
 
Saban asked Mal Moore if he thought he just hired "the best football coach in the country."

Somewhat taken aback, Moore said "yes."

"Well, you haven't," Saban told him. "I'm nothing without my players. But you did just hire one hell of a recruiter."

That was prophetic enough. If you get them, they will win. We missed on Clowney and Winston and never missed a beat. We miss on a few of the elite in the state and never miss a beat. Saban is so good on finding football players that when he misses on plan A, his backup is still everyone else's plan A.
 
Here it is

  • The bar has now even subsconsciously been set so high, it's a long, long LJS Law 2016-06-22 14:12:52
    way down from where that bar sits.

    For a recruiting nerd like me, this has been the Golden Age of Alabama Football Recruiting. I try to keep perspective but gosh .. we don't even really recruit anymore. We just "pick".

    We slow play five stars. That has happened.

    I tell people this and few believe me but I know it to be true: You can build a 25 man class out of kids that we turn away because we don't have room and THAT 25 man group is a Top Ten class.

    We sign the #1 class and turn an entire, other, Top Ten class away.

    Every year.

    It's true.
 
Saban asked Mal Moore if he thought he just hired "the best football coach in the country."

Somewhat taken aback, Moore said "yes."

"Well, you haven't," Saban told him. "I'm nothing without my players. But you did just hire one hell of a recruiter."

That was prophetic enough. If you get them, they will win. We missed on Clowney and Winston and never missed a beat. We miss on a few of the elite in the state and never miss a beat. Saban is so good on finding football players that when he misses on plan A, his backup is still everyone else's plan A.

Yes, Sir, we may have missed on signing them, but...hindsight being always 20/20...where once I was blind...now I see.
ROLL TIDE!
 
Yes, Sir, we may have missed on signing them, but...hindsight being always 20/20...where once I was blind...now I see.
ROLL TIDE!

I always felt when these kids visit so often they know what's coming. Clowney struggled with effort and Winston just struggled. Both would have known that Alabama was not a good fit for who they were and what was most important to them. More hindsight. :-)
 
I used to follow recruiting super closely and it always blew my mind how he was able to slow play his backup plan without losing them. The best part of his last 3-4 classes is how he's really geared those classes to his game plan/identity. The signing of more athletic D Lineman,DE/OLB's, and guys who can play multiple positions in the secondary has been awesome.
 
Looking back thru the years, at the 'really big' recruits that got away, it's interesting to see how they did.

2008: Arthur Brown, LB, KS. #23 #2 LB. Signed with Miami, transferred to K State, had a decent JR year. Drafted in the 2nd round by the Ravens, has 13 tackles and 5 assists in 34 games over 3 years as a reserve.

2009 Greg Reid, CB, GA, #28, #4 DB. Signed with FSU, played 3 years, dismissed. Playing for the Jville Sharks in the Arena league.
Jon Bostic, LB, FL, #64. Signed with Florida. All SEC as a senior. In 40 NFL games over 3 years, 104 tackles and 39 assists.
Nukeese Richardson, WR, FL, #68. Signed with u cheat. Arrested after 9 games, kicked off the team. Multiple run ins with the law since.
Stephon Gilmore, CB, SC, #84. Signed with USCe. Started as a freshman. In 53 games over 4 years with the Bills, has 156 tackles and 22 assts, with 9 INTs.

2010 Keenan Allen, CB, NC, #5. Signed with Cal. Had a great college career. In 37 games over 3 years for the Chargers, has averaged 11.9 YPC, with 16 TDs.
Da'Rick Rogers, WR, GA, #9. Signed with u cheat. All SEC as soph, leading in Yds receiving, catches, while 2nd in TDs. Failed drug tests and was dismissed. Went pro after 3 years. Went to Tenn Tech for one year, turned pro, undrafted, signed with Colts. One game, 6 catches, 107 yards, 2 TDs. Released for DUI. Has not played pro ball since.
Marcus Lattimore, RB, SC, #10. Signed with USCe. Great RB. We know the sad story.
LeMarcus Joyner, CB, FL, #14. Signed with FSU. Jim Thorpe finalist. In 29 games over 2 years for the Rams he has 89 tackles and 23 assists.
Christian Jones, LB, FL, #20. Signed with FSU. Undrafted. In 31 games over 2 years with the Bears he has 104 tackles and 51 assists.
Markeith Ambles, WR, GA, #24. Signed with USC, following Kiffin. Booted after one year for off-field incidents. Went to U Houston for 35 recs and 539 yds and 4 TDs his senior year. Out of football.
Lache Seastrunk, RB, TX, #26. Signed with Oregon. Transferred to Baylor. Drafted in the 6th round. Waived by NFL and CFL teams. Out of football
James Hurst, OL, IN, #32. Signed with UNC. UDFA, signed with the Ravens. Has played 31 games, starting 13.
Alec Ogeltree, DB, GA, #40.Signed with UGA. In 36 games over 3 years with the Rams has 206 tackles, and 65 assists.
Juwan James, OL, GA, #55. Signed with u cheat. He has started 23 games over 2 years with the Dolphins.

2011 Jadevon Clowney, DE, SC, #1. To USCe. In 17 games he has started 11 with 32 takcles, 15 assists. and 4.5 sacks
Malcolm Brown, RB, TX, #10. To UT. UDFA after injuries in college. Played the last game of the NFL season for the Rams, 4 carries, 17 yards.
James Wilder, JR, RB, FL, #11. To FSU. 1363 yards and 20 TD over 3 years. In 2 years has not played in an NFL game.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, GA. #23. To UGA. Dismissed soph year, went to Alabama St. In 2 seasons he has started 13 games, rushed for 1313 yards, 3.9 avg, and 1 TD, for the Browns.
Timmy Jernigan, DT, FL, #29. To FSU. 2nd team All-American junior year. Drafted late 2nd round. In 27 games has 29 tackles and 31 assts, with 8 sacks
Anthony Chickillo, DE, FL, #44. To Miami. Started most of 4 years. Drafted 6th round. Played in 7 games in 2015, with 6 tackles, for the Steelers.
Damian Swann, CB, GA, #47. To UGA. 2nd team all-SEC senior year. Drafted 5th round, and played in 2 games, for the Saints.
Nicolas Brassell, WR, MS, #51. To Ole piss. Contributed frosh year, to Juco for 2nd, back on team for 3rd, left team.
Jay Rome, TE, GA, #55. To UGA. Played 4 years, UDFA. Did not play in NFL 2015.
Brandon Shell, OL, SC, #66. To USCe. Started 47 games. Drafted in the 5th round by the Jets. Did not play in 2015.
Enrique Florence, S, AL, #69. To awbarn. Played for 2 years, left team, signed with Troy. No stats from Troy.
Antonio Richardson, OL, TN, #74. To ucheat. 2nd team All- SEC soph and junior years, went pro early- not drafted. Has not played a pro football game.

I didn't go further. It's fun to look at these, and I could have missed some. We did ok without these guys, and from Brown to Clowney, and all in between, the only guy that kinda hurts is Allen. Of course, we wanted to start him out at safety, so who knows.....
 
Thank you to both @12gage and @bradenob for the good work and posts. It's great to look back and see just what great personnel we've had, and how our near misses performed. As was so painful during my three boys' high schools careers, the old saying of "it's not always the X's and O's, sometimes it's the Jacks and Joes" rang true.

Great posts. Thanks again.

RTR,

Tim
 
Looking back thru the years, at the 'really big' recruits that got away, it's interesting to see how they did.

2008: Arthur Brown, LB, KS. #23 #2 LB. Signed with Miami, transferred to K State, had a decent JR year. Drafted in the 2nd round by the Ravens, has 13 tackles and 5 assists in 34 games over 3 years as a reserve.

2009 Greg Reid, CB, GA, #28, #4 DB. Signed with FSU, played 3 years, dismissed. Playing for the Jville Sharks in the Arena league.
Jon Bostic, LB, FL, #64. Signed with Florida. All SEC as a senior. In 40 NFL games over 3 years, 104 tackles and 39 assists.
Nukeese Richardson, WR, FL, #68. Signed with u cheat. Arrested after 9 games, kicked off the team. Multiple run ins with the law since.
Stephon Gilmore, CB, SC, #84. Signed with USCe. Started as a freshman. In 53 games over 4 years with the Bills, has 156 tackles and 22 assts, with 9 INTs.

2010 Keenan Allen, CB, NC, #5. Signed with Cal. Had a great college career. In 37 games over 3 years for the Chargers, has averaged 11.9 YPC, with 16 TDs.
Da'Rick Rogers, WR, GA, #9. Signed with u cheat. All SEC as soph, leading in Yds receiving, catches, while 2nd in TDs. Failed drug tests and was dismissed. Went pro after 3 years. Went to Tenn Tech for one year, turned pro, undrafted, signed with Colts. One game, 6 catches, 107 yards, 2 TDs. Released for DUI. Has not played pro ball since.
Marcus Lattimore, RB, SC, #10. Signed with USCe. Great RB. We know the sad story.
LeMarcus Joyner, CB, FL, #14. Signed with FSU. Jim Thorpe finalist. In 29 games over 2 years for the Rams he has 89 tackles and 23 assists.
Christian Jones, LB, FL, #20. Signed with FSU. Undrafted. In 31 games over 2 years with the Bears he has 104 tackles and 51 assists.
Markeith Ambles, WR, GA, #24. Signed with USC, following Kiffin. Booted after one year for off-field incidents. Went to U Houston for 35 recs and 539 yds and 4 TDs his senior year. Out of football.
Lache Seastrunk, RB, TX, #26. Signed with Oregon. Transferred to Baylor. Drafted in the 6th round. Waived by NFL and CFL teams. Out of football
James Hurst, OL, IN, #32. Signed with UNC. UDFA, signed with the Ravens. Has played 31 games, starting 13.
Alec Ogeltree, DB, GA, #40.Signed with UGA. In 36 games over 3 years with the Rams has 206 tackles, and 65 assists.
Juwan James, OL, GA, #55. Signed with u cheat. He has started 23 games over 2 years with the Dolphins.

2011 Jadevon Clowney, DE, SC, #1. To USCe. In 17 games he has started 11 with 32 takcles, 15 assists. and 4.5 sacks
Malcolm Brown, RB, TX, #10. To UT. UDFA after injuries in college. Played the last game of the NFL season for the Rams, 4 carries, 17 yards.
James Wilder, JR, RB, FL, #11. To FSU. 1363 yards and 20 TD over 3 years. In 2 years has not played in an NFL game.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, GA. #23. To UGA. Dismissed soph year, went to Alabama St. In 2 seasons he has started 13 games, rushed for 1313 yards, 3.9 avg, and 1 TD, for the Browns.
Timmy Jernigan, DT, FL, #29. To FSU. 2nd team All-American junior year. Drafted late 2nd round. In 27 games has 29 tackles and 31 assts, with 8 sacks
Anthony Chickillo, DE, FL, #44. To Miami. Started most of 4 years. Drafted 6th round. Played in 7 games in 2015, with 6 tackles, for the Steelers.
Damian Swann, CB, GA, #47. To UGA. 2nd team all-SEC senior year. Drafted 5th round, and played in 2 games, for the Saints.
Nicolas Brassell, WR, MS, #51. To Ole piss. Contributed frosh year, to Juco for 2nd, back on team for 3rd, left team.
Jay Rome, TE, GA, #55. To UGA. Played 4 years, UDFA. Did not play in NFL 2015.
Brandon Shell, OL, SC, #66. To USCe. Started 47 games. Drafted in the 5th round by the Jets. Did not play in 2015.
Enrique Florence, S, AL, #69. To awbarn. Played for 2 years, left team, signed with Troy. No stats from Troy.
Antonio Richardson, OL, TN, #74. To ucheat. 2nd team All- SEC soph and junior years, went pro early- not drafted. Has not played a pro football game.

I didn't go further. It's fun to look at these, and I could have missed some. We did ok without these guys, and from Brown to Clowney, and all in between, the only guy that kinda hurts is Allen. Of course, we wanted to start him out at safety, so who knows.....

Damn, great post and research. Thanks for this information.
 
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