BAMANEWSBOT
Staff
By: David Purdum | More Experts
Published: Sep 19, 2012
Kenny White was in the heart of his 20-year career as a prominent Las Vegas oddsmaker when Southern Cal went on an epic run that had sports books on their heels.
The Trojans, under Pete Carroll, kicked off their betting dynasty by going 20-3 against the spread in 2002 and 2003. Beginning with the second game of the 2003 season, USC was favored in 58 consecutive games, the longest streak in the BCS era.
āPeople were coming over from Southern California and just hammering the Trojans every week,ā recalled White, now an analyst for The Linemakers on Sporting News. āSo we started inflating the lines by three or four points on S.C. games. The line still would go up another three or four points. And USC still covered the number. ā
Alabama is in the prime of its own run of dominating the sports betting market. The Crimson Tide, 50-point favorites against Florida Atlantic this week, have been favored in 30 consecutive games and 44 of their last 45, dating back to the 2009 SEC title game against Florida.
White doesnāt believe Alabama point spreads are being inflated now to the degree that USC lines were in the early 2000s but says it might not be long before that happens
āBoy, theyāre 37-19 covering the spread the last four years. Theyāre close,ā White added in a recent phone interview from his Vegas office.
Hereās more from the interview with White, including some insight into how he builds the power ratings that have played a significant role in the Vegas points spreads for decades:
Q: Does the current Alabama team have a higher power rating than some of the great USC teams in the mid-2000s?
White: Yes, but my power ratings on the top teams always seem to creep up a little bit each year ā not a lot but maybe by a half point. The athletes just continue to get bigger and stronger each year, so my ratings go up. So Alabama probably is a little higher than USC was.
Q: Does it make it harder on oddsmakers when there is one dominant team like an Alabama? How difficult is it to gauge just how much better they are than everyone else?
White: You try to over-inflate the number a little bit, but itās tough with high-number games. When they play high-number games, like against Western Kentucky or Florida Atlantic, they can win by however many they want to win by. But you also know (Alabama coach Nick) Saban is going to play a lot of second- and third-string guys early in the game. Florida Atlantic is terrible. (Howard) Schnellenberger really left them in bad shape. He didnāt develop the talent that was there and didnāt recruit well, either. Alabama could beat them, 100-0, if they wanted to.
Q: How do bettors who you consider sharp generally handle dynasty teams like USC and Alabama now? Do they avoid them? Tend to bet against them?
White: Sharps were jumping on USC early during their run. It didnāt matter what the number was. They got on USC early, because they knew the squares were going to come in and inflate it even more on game day. They tried to middle it a lot.
For the most part, sharps hate laying points. They like dogs that they feel can win the game. So, with Alabama, sharps were on Michigan to start the season, and they had Arkansas last week. Sharps drove the (Alabama-Arkansas) line up so they could buy it back. They laid the 18, 19, and 20. The number moved quick and got up to 22, and then they bought back the 22s and 21 1/2s.
Sometimes, though, sharps donāt want to jump in front of a train, and Alabama is a train right now.
Q: A lot of people questioned the losses on Alabamaās defense before the season. But your ratings were different. Explain, please.
White: I didnāt have them losing that much off the defense. I know Phil Steele had them with five returning starters on defense. But I do it a little differently with experience and playing time. Like (cornerback) Dee Millner ā he only had six starts last year, but had 11 the year before. He had 17 starts and wasnāt considered a returning starter. Vinnie Sunseri had 31 tackles last year as a safety.
I rate guys out on their recruiting ranking. I grab seven or eight lists to get a point value on each player. Alabama has four- and five-star players at every position. No one else has that.
Q: What would you make the line right now on Alabama vs. LSU on a neutral field?
White: Probably Alabama -3. I think thereās also a coaching edge, too. So it could probably be Alabama -4 or -4 Ā½. On a neutral field, thatās pretty big difference between first and second-best teams.
Published: Sep 19, 2012
Kenny White was in the heart of his 20-year career as a prominent Las Vegas oddsmaker when Southern Cal went on an epic run that had sports books on their heels.
The Trojans, under Pete Carroll, kicked off their betting dynasty by going 20-3 against the spread in 2002 and 2003. Beginning with the second game of the 2003 season, USC was favored in 58 consecutive games, the longest streak in the BCS era.
āPeople were coming over from Southern California and just hammering the Trojans every week,ā recalled White, now an analyst for The Linemakers on Sporting News. āSo we started inflating the lines by three or four points on S.C. games. The line still would go up another three or four points. And USC still covered the number. ā
Alabama is in the prime of its own run of dominating the sports betting market. The Crimson Tide, 50-point favorites against Florida Atlantic this week, have been favored in 30 consecutive games and 44 of their last 45, dating back to the 2009 SEC title game against Florida.
White doesnāt believe Alabama point spreads are being inflated now to the degree that USC lines were in the early 2000s but says it might not be long before that happens
āBoy, theyāre 37-19 covering the spread the last four years. Theyāre close,ā White added in a recent phone interview from his Vegas office.
Hereās more from the interview with White, including some insight into how he builds the power ratings that have played a significant role in the Vegas points spreads for decades:
Q: Does the current Alabama team have a higher power rating than some of the great USC teams in the mid-2000s?
White: Yes, but my power ratings on the top teams always seem to creep up a little bit each year ā not a lot but maybe by a half point. The athletes just continue to get bigger and stronger each year, so my ratings go up. So Alabama probably is a little higher than USC was.
Q: Does it make it harder on oddsmakers when there is one dominant team like an Alabama? How difficult is it to gauge just how much better they are than everyone else?
White: You try to over-inflate the number a little bit, but itās tough with high-number games. When they play high-number games, like against Western Kentucky or Florida Atlantic, they can win by however many they want to win by. But you also know (Alabama coach Nick) Saban is going to play a lot of second- and third-string guys early in the game. Florida Atlantic is terrible. (Howard) Schnellenberger really left them in bad shape. He didnāt develop the talent that was there and didnāt recruit well, either. Alabama could beat them, 100-0, if they wanted to.
Q: How do bettors who you consider sharp generally handle dynasty teams like USC and Alabama now? Do they avoid them? Tend to bet against them?
White: Sharps were jumping on USC early during their run. It didnāt matter what the number was. They got on USC early, because they knew the squares were going to come in and inflate it even more on game day. They tried to middle it a lot.
For the most part, sharps hate laying points. They like dogs that they feel can win the game. So, with Alabama, sharps were on Michigan to start the season, and they had Arkansas last week. Sharps drove the (Alabama-Arkansas) line up so they could buy it back. They laid the 18, 19, and 20. The number moved quick and got up to 22, and then they bought back the 22s and 21 1/2s.
Sometimes, though, sharps donāt want to jump in front of a train, and Alabama is a train right now.
Q: A lot of people questioned the losses on Alabamaās defense before the season. But your ratings were different. Explain, please.
White: I didnāt have them losing that much off the defense. I know Phil Steele had them with five returning starters on defense. But I do it a little differently with experience and playing time. Like (cornerback) Dee Millner ā he only had six starts last year, but had 11 the year before. He had 17 starts and wasnāt considered a returning starter. Vinnie Sunseri had 31 tackles last year as a safety.
I rate guys out on their recruiting ranking. I grab seven or eight lists to get a point value on each player. Alabama has four- and five-star players at every position. No one else has that.
Q: What would you make the line right now on Alabama vs. LSU on a neutral field?
White: Probably Alabama -3. I think thereās also a coaching edge, too. So it could probably be Alabama -4 or -4 Ā½. On a neutral field, thatās pretty big difference between first and second-best teams.
