📡 Turnovers, roster upgrades and teams that could turnaround in 2025

[SEC Sports]

College football Luck Index 2025: Who needs luck on their side next season?

Turnover luck, coordinator upgrade, transfer portal haul? They all could lead to some upswings for a select few teams.

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Almost no word in the English language makes a college football fan more defensive than the L-word: luck.

We weren't lucky to have a great turnover margin -- our coaches are just really good at emphasizing ball security! We're tougher than everyone else -- that's why we recovered all those fumbles!

We weren't lucky to win all those close games -- we're clutch! Our coaches know how to press all the right buttons! Our quarterback is a cool customer!

We weren't lucky to have fewer injuries than everyone else -- our strength-and-conditioning coach is the best in America! And again: We're just tougher!

As loath as we may be to admit it, a large percentage of a given college football season -- with its small overall sample of games -- is determined by the bounce of a pointy ball, the bend of a ligament and the whims of fate. Certain teams will end up with an unsustainably good turnover margin that turns on them the next year. Certain teams (often the same ones) will enjoy a great run of close-game fortune based on some combination of great coaching, sturdy quarterback play, timely special teams contributions ... and massive amounts of unsustainable randomness. Certain teams will keep their starting lineups mostly intact for 12 or more games while another is watching its depth chart change dramatically on a week-to-week basis.

As we prepare for the 2025 college football season, it's worth stepping back and looking at who did, and didn't, get the bounces in 2024. Just because Lady Luck was (or wasn't) on your side one year, doesn't automatically mean your fortunes will flip the next, but that's often how these things go. Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let's talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.

Jump to a section:
Turnover luck | Close games luck
Injuries and general shuffling | Turnaround candidates​