We talked for about 25 minutes. I texted him (Brad's an old friend back to his Alabama days) and he called maybe half an hour later. Some points:
* For the first time ever, Brad is not making a BCS Championship Game projection or any bowl projections -- since the other projections would stem from the 1 vs. 2 matchup. In other words, says Edwards: "It's going to be a nail-biter both ways" for Alabama and Oklahoma State.
* Brad had previously said that it seemed about 95 percent sure that it would be Alabama vs. LSU for the national title. He told me the events of today -- Oklahoma State blowing out Oklahoma and Virginia Tech losing to Clemson -- fell within that 5 percent. Said Mr. Edwards: "The only thing that could have gone better for Oklahoma State would have been if LSU had lost."
* "Voters have a lot to think about." It's going to come down to about three factors:
1) Will voters take their given mandate, to rank the teams from 1 to 25 in both the coaches' and Harris polls? Or will they try to create the matchup they most desire in the title game?
2) How much will the visceral effect of seeing Oklahoma State curb-stomp (my word, not Brad's, just to be sure) Oklahoma affect voters who are turning in ballots tonight? To many, that game will resonate in the same way Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State, Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech, Stanford losing to Oregon and Oregon losing to Southern Cal resonated with Alabama fans. It was, in fact, a statement win. The question is how many remember that just a couple of weeks ago that same team lost to Iowa State?
3) Stanford and how many voters keep the Cardinal above Oklahoma State. Every voter that does that -- presumably those voters would be 1. LSU 2. Alabama 3. Stanford 4. Oke State -- is basically casting a vote for Alabama. Last week the coaches' poll had Stanford with a 44-point lead over Oklahoma State and the Harris poll had a 98-point edge for Stanford over Oklahoma. The question is how many of those voters hold on Stanford being above Oklahoma State, and how many have OSU jumping Stanford.
Here's the math:
Brad expects the computers to have Oklahoma State 2 and Alabama 3. The BCS system drops the highest and lowest computer ranking for each team. The Sagarin and Wolfe rankings have been the friendliest to Alabama. If both have Alabama at No. 2 tomorrow (and Sagarin will be known early in the day, but Wolfe, as I understand, won't be available to the public before the BCS announcement), that's a major coup for Alabama and a good indicator.
The magic number is 35. That's how many voters out of the 174 in the combined polls Oklahoma State needs to vote the Cowboys over Alabama. By the math from last week's poll, OSU has nine of the 44 needed (assuming the computer rankings favoring OSU in a sweep with the high-low thrown out), so 35 need to jump Oklahoma State over Alabama in the final poll (that's not precise, as every voter having Stanford over OSU in the final poll creates another second-place vote needed, increasing it to 36 if there's one such voter, 37 if there are two, etc.).
The evidence:
Brad talks to a lot of former coaches and players in the course of his job, obviously. These are not all Harris poll voters, but they give him an indication of how people are thinking. Every one of these that he has talked to tonight believe LSU and Alabama are the two best teams.
"I don't think it is likely a whole lot think Oklahoma State is better," he told me, "but a lot say they would rather see a new match (i.e. not an Alabama-LSU rematch)."
It comes down to:
Brad says he believes it comes down to how many voters came into today convinced LSU and Alabama are 1-2, and planned to vote that way because they believe they are the two best teams and weren't going to be swayed (unless LSU lost, of course). And it comes down to how many had not made up their minds and were willing to be influenced by the days events, in particular those who hadn't made up their mind between Alabama and Oklahoma State -- more particularly, those who were deciding who they wanted to see LSU play in the national championship game.
"My guess is any voters who came into today willing to be swayed were swayed," Edwards said.
****I noted at the top that for the first time ever Edwards isn't making a projection. He said he can't do it because he doesn't have the numbers or the precedent to back it up. There has never been a year like this to base a projection on, and the math is just too close. It could go either way.
Brad said the coaches' poll will be released tomorrow afternoon but not the Harris poll. We probably won't know enough from those numbers to be certain at that time.
In short, he said we will not know until the selection show tomorrow evening (7:15 CT on ESPN).
That may not be what you want to hear, but you now have information no one else can give you access to.
