🏈 Three reasons Missouri could win the SEC championship

[BAMANEWSBOT]

Alabama is a two-touchdown favorite to beat Missouri Saturday.

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[BAMANEWSBOT]

Three Reasons Missouri could win the SEC Championship

Missouri is a 14 1/2-point underdog against No. 1 Alabama in Saturday's SEC championship game, but the 10-2 Tigers may be more dangerous than the oddsmakers predict.

Here are three reasons they could pull an upset in Saturday's 3 p.m. kickoff in Atlanta. AL.com Alabama beat writer Michael Casagrande, meanwhile, has three reasons 11-1 Alabama should win.

1. Shane Ray and Markus Golden may be the best pair of defensive ends in the country.

The Tigers lost two very good defensive ends last year in second-round NFL draft pick Kony Ealy and 2013 SEC Defensive Player of the Year Michael Sam, but they may be even better on the edges this season. Shane Ray and Markus Golden have combined for 22 sacks this season, with Ray's 13.5 sacks leading the SEC and tied for fourth in the nation. They've also combined for 36.5 tackles for loss, with Ray's 20.5 stops behind the line tied for most in the SEC and third in the country. Alabama has allowed only 11 sacks this year but freshman left tackle Cameron Robinson suffered a sprained shoulder in Saturday's Iron Bowl win over Auburn. He's expected to be ready to go Saturday in Atlanta, but if he's less than 100 percent, Ray and/or Golden could be trouble.

1. The Tigers have an edge in the return game and turnover margin.

The old adage "defense wins championships" is only partly right. Special teams and turnovers often do, too. Marcus Murphy is a bona fide weapon in the return game, leading the SEC in kick return average while returning two kickoffs and one punt for touchdowns. Missouri is 20th in the FBS in turnover margin at +9 while Alabama is -2. Two of Alabama's 19 turnovers this season came in its loss to Ole Miss, including a Christion Jones fumble on a fourth-quarter kickoff return that set up the Rebels' go-ahead score. For all the Crimson Tide's strengths and Missouri's offensive inconsistencies, a good team like the Tigers will take advantage of opportunities with a short field, particularly with Bud Sasser and Jimmie Hunt establishing themselves as weapons in the passing game.

1. Humiliation is a powerful motivator.

The Tigers were run out of the Georgia Dome last season in a 59-42 loss to Auburn. The defense was particularly embarrassed to the tune of 677 yards, including a mind-blowing 545 on the ground. The memory of that beatdown and the anger they felt in the locker room afterward will be on the minds of the Tigers this week as they prepare and Saturday as kickoff nears, and it'll fuel their motivation to not only win, but prove that last year's poor performance was a fluke. While Alabama is the better team on paper, a hungry team is a dangerous team. "We harnessed what we felt after that game last year," Tiger offensive lineman Mitch Morse said, "and (it's) definitely going to help us drive through this week."

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[bcracker]

A question for all: how do y'all see our O-line matching up with their front seven? Without a doubt, it's good that Cam is going to play.

 

[UAgrad93]

You attack good edge rushers with the run game directly at them! You screen them to slow them down. Kiffin will have these guys dragging their tongues.

 

[bama alum]

You attack good edge rushers with the run game directly at them! You screen them to slow them down. Kiffin will have these guys dragging their tongues.

^^ This!!

A couple of years ago, UGA's strength was at LB. Bama ran at Jones and...the other guy all day. I do expect a lot of screens.

And maybe it's just the crimson-colored glasses, but I can't see a better duo on the DL than Robinson and Allen. Of course, having Reed there helps quite a bit.

 

[TerryP]

A question for all: how do y'all see our O-line matching up with their front seven? Without a doubt, it's good that Cam is going to play.

The stats (38 sacks on the season) do say Mizzou is one of the better defensive lines in college football.

There were 13 sacks against their OOC opponents this season.

They had six against Tennessee. There are only five teams in FBS play with worse pass protection than Tennessee.

They had three against Kentucky. Kentucky has been giving up three on average this season. The Wildcats are ranked 111th out of 128 teams in sacks allowed.

There's 22 of their 38. So, how good are they, truly?

The biggest statistical measurement is how they've done on passing downs: third down being one of those. When I consider us passing on third, and the majority of the time it's TJ in the backfield...then I consider Blake's ability?

They'll give us a game with their defensive front but I don't think it's going to be one of those numbers highlighted in the stats at the end.

 

[bcracker]

Thanks for your thoughts @TerryP. You (and others) have helped me keep things in perspective all year. After the WVU game I was not at all confident we'd be where we are today.

Mizzou has been one of those teams that's been hard for me to get a handle on. For one, I haven't watched them much. I was confident Georgia would win the East (shows what I know), so I didn't give them a lot of time. Secondly, what I have seen of them, they do have a talented defensive front. Of course, their competition has been primarily the East, so their stats may be reflecting the weakness of that division as a whole. That's not to say I believe they won't be competitive against Alabama, but I am interested to see how our offense plays against them.

What are your thoughts (and anyone else feel free to opine as well) on our secondary coming off the Auburn game? There seemed to be a lot of improvement there, but was that more of a reflection of how well our front seven was doing in pressuring the QB, or was it just an amped-up night for the quys?

 

[BAMAFSTBACK]

I see this game going slightly better for Mizzou than it did for Notre Dame in 2012.

 

[rick4bama]

I have thought of another reason Mizz will win the game and here it is. Bama doesn't show up for the game, that the only reason Mizz will win this game.

 

[bamaledge]

You hit it on the head @rick4bama . I hope they don't don't have a let down after the hard and emotional win over the barn.

 

[TerryP]

@bama alum I'm not worried about emotional letdowns. Practices have been pretty intense this week.