BAMANEWSBOT
Staff
Alabama has been so dominant over the last five seasons that when the Crimson Tide show any kind of weakness, a mass of euphoria sweeps the nation.
āAlabama just gave up a 30 yard pass. Their secondary looks weak! Maybe even we could throw on them and get a few cheap touchdowns!ā
āWow, look at that mediocre team sacking A. J. McCarron. Our guys can do that!ā
Usually after these these kind of statements, one of two things happen. First of all, most of the time Alabama just finished winning a game by 30+ points, but fans are nitpicking to find any sign of hope that someone, frankly anyone can stop Nick Sabanās reign of terror on the rest of the country.
Second, Alabama usually follows up a bad play or a bad series with a heart crushing, soul punishing drive that milks the clock and takes the fight out of their opponent and their fans. For most of the college football world, it has become such old hat that it puts us to sleep.
Itās like calm down everyone; we all know Alabama will probably impose their will on the next drive. Donāt get too excited.
But I have to admit that as much as I donāt want to be fooled by Alabamaās slow start ā bamboozled by their lack of initiative at the offensive line or complete lack of a running game ā even I am starting to wonder if the Crimson Tideās demise has started slowly but surely. Every time I begin thinking that maybe there is a chink in Alabamaās armor, I quickly think about something else as if it is wrong to imagine Alabama somehow losing a couple of games at some point in the near future.
Mentioning āNick Sabanā and ālosing a couple of gamesā in the same sentence is almost like uttering Lord Voldemortās name in the Harry Potter series, meaning itās not recommended and you are probably going to get some blank stares.
But, still that shed of doubt is there. If Alabamaās team name was āTennesseeā or āArkansasā, I think weād be wondering if either one of those teams could even make a bowl game. The Crimson Tide rank 13[SUP]th[/SUP] out of 14 teams in total offense in the SEC and letās be honest, the SEC isnāt exactly the Big 12 or Pac 12. In those conferences kicking two or three field goals is like missing the first ten minutes of a marathon. Youāre way behind and thereās probably no catching up. In the SEC, teams are scoring more than they used to, but the conference is still known as much for its defense as it is for its offensive stars.
The most frightening stat for Alabama is that the Crimson Tide cannot run the football effectively. Itās really hard to explain. For a program that has so effectively imposed its will on any defense its seen over the last half-decade, the Crimson Tide ā who still get five star players as often as the Yankees buy a free agent ā cannot move the football on the ground against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M and Colorado State.
Iāll give Alabama a free pass for their performance against Virginia Techās defense. The Hokies rank 15[SUP]th[/SUP] nationally in run defense, but Colorado State ranks 55[SUP]th[/SUP] and Texas A&M ranks 105[SUP]th[/SUP]. Yet, after playing one of the nationās worst run defenses and one very mediocre one, Alabama ranks 90[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing yards per game nationally.
Since 2004, which was as far back as my research went, the worst rank any BCS national champion had in rushing offense nationally was 23[SUP]rd[/SUP]. USC, who won the national championship in 2004, ranked 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] by averaging 177.4 yards per game on the ground, the second lowest total of any national champion in that time span.
The lowest total was 160.0 yards per game by the 2006 Florida Gators, who mainly relied on an excellent defense and the duo of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow at quarterback.
Since Floridaās 2006 national championship, which started the SECās run of seven straight titles, every team that has won a national championship has rushed for at least 211 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. Every team also ran the ball at least 39 times per game.
[TABLE="width: 30%, align: right"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5"]A Telling Sign?
The past nine national champions have ranked in the top 22 nationally in rushing offense at the end of the season. So far in 2013, Alabama ranks 90th. Could the lack of a running game ruin Alabamaās hope for a fourth national championship in five years?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]YEAR[/TD]
[TD]TEAM[/TD]
[TD]YDS/GM[/TD]
[TD]YDS/ATT[/TD]
[TD]ATT/GAME[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]USC[/TD]
[TD]177.4[/TD]
[TD]4.7[/TD]
[TD]35.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2005[/TD]
[TD]Texas[/TD]
[TD]274.9[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[TD]43.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[TD]160.0[/TD]
[TD]4.7[/TD]
[TD]34.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]LSU[/TD]
[TD]211.62[/TD]
[TD]4.9[/TD]
[TD]43.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[TD]231.14[/TD]
[TD]5.94[/TD]
[TD]38.93[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]215.07[/TD]
[TD]5.01[/TD]
[TD]215.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]Auburn[/TD]
[TD]284.79[/TD]
[TD]6.12[/TD]
[TD]46.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]214.46[/TD]
[TD]5.49[/TD]
[TD]39.08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]227.5[/TD]
[TD]5.59[/TD]
[TD]40.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]129.67[/TD]
[TD]4.13[/TD]
[TD]32.0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
So far in 2013, Alabama is averaging 129.67 yards per game on the ground, with a 4.13 average per rush and only
32 attempts per contest. In the first quarter of games this season, Alabama ranks 116[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing yards with 21 carries for 58 yards and only three first downs. In other words, the Crimson Tide simply cannot run the football early in games and although the stats get better as the game progresses, it still isnāt good enough.
The Crimson Tide need to be able to wear down opponents, because they are bigger and stronger than every team on their schedule. After Ole Miss this weekend in Tuscaloosa, the schedule gives them a break until LSUās travels to Tuscaloosa, so maybe we will see Alabama start to effectively run the ball.
But if they donāt, expect the Tide to go down somewhere throughout the season.
A national championship victory from a team anywhere outside the top 25 in rushing would be unprecedented, especially for a team that relies on the running game as much, if not more, than any team in college football today.
More than likely, Nick Sabanās team will figure it out. Donāt they always? But they better figure it out fast, because the lack of a running game shows statistically that it will keep a team from winning a national championship.
āAlabama just gave up a 30 yard pass. Their secondary looks weak! Maybe even we could throw on them and get a few cheap touchdowns!ā
āWow, look at that mediocre team sacking A. J. McCarron. Our guys can do that!ā
Usually after these these kind of statements, one of two things happen. First of all, most of the time Alabama just finished winning a game by 30+ points, but fans are nitpicking to find any sign of hope that someone, frankly anyone can stop Nick Sabanās reign of terror on the rest of the country.
Second, Alabama usually follows up a bad play or a bad series with a heart crushing, soul punishing drive that milks the clock and takes the fight out of their opponent and their fans. For most of the college football world, it has become such old hat that it puts us to sleep.
Itās like calm down everyone; we all know Alabama will probably impose their will on the next drive. Donāt get too excited.
But I have to admit that as much as I donāt want to be fooled by Alabamaās slow start ā bamboozled by their lack of initiative at the offensive line or complete lack of a running game ā even I am starting to wonder if the Crimson Tideās demise has started slowly but surely. Every time I begin thinking that maybe there is a chink in Alabamaās armor, I quickly think about something else as if it is wrong to imagine Alabama somehow losing a couple of games at some point in the near future.
Mentioning āNick Sabanā and ālosing a couple of gamesā in the same sentence is almost like uttering Lord Voldemortās name in the Harry Potter series, meaning itās not recommended and you are probably going to get some blank stares.
But, still that shed of doubt is there. If Alabamaās team name was āTennesseeā or āArkansasā, I think weād be wondering if either one of those teams could even make a bowl game. The Crimson Tide rank 13[SUP]th[/SUP] out of 14 teams in total offense in the SEC and letās be honest, the SEC isnāt exactly the Big 12 or Pac 12. In those conferences kicking two or three field goals is like missing the first ten minutes of a marathon. Youāre way behind and thereās probably no catching up. In the SEC, teams are scoring more than they used to, but the conference is still known as much for its defense as it is for its offensive stars.
The most frightening stat for Alabama is that the Crimson Tide cannot run the football effectively. Itās really hard to explain. For a program that has so effectively imposed its will on any defense its seen over the last half-decade, the Crimson Tide ā who still get five star players as often as the Yankees buy a free agent ā cannot move the football on the ground against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M and Colorado State.
Iāll give Alabama a free pass for their performance against Virginia Techās defense. The Hokies rank 15[SUP]th[/SUP] nationally in run defense, but Colorado State ranks 55[SUP]th[/SUP] and Texas A&M ranks 105[SUP]th[/SUP]. Yet, after playing one of the nationās worst run defenses and one very mediocre one, Alabama ranks 90[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing yards per game nationally.
Since 2004, which was as far back as my research went, the worst rank any BCS national champion had in rushing offense nationally was 23[SUP]rd[/SUP]. USC, who won the national championship in 2004, ranked 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] by averaging 177.4 yards per game on the ground, the second lowest total of any national champion in that time span.
The lowest total was 160.0 yards per game by the 2006 Florida Gators, who mainly relied on an excellent defense and the duo of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow at quarterback.
Since Floridaās 2006 national championship, which started the SECās run of seven straight titles, every team that has won a national championship has rushed for at least 211 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. Every team also ran the ball at least 39 times per game.
[TABLE="width: 30%, align: right"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5"]A Telling Sign?
The past nine national champions have ranked in the top 22 nationally in rushing offense at the end of the season. So far in 2013, Alabama ranks 90th. Could the lack of a running game ruin Alabamaās hope for a fourth national championship in five years?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]YEAR[/TD]
[TD]TEAM[/TD]
[TD]YDS/GM[/TD]
[TD]YDS/ATT[/TD]
[TD]ATT/GAME[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]USC[/TD]
[TD]177.4[/TD]
[TD]4.7[/TD]
[TD]35.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2005[/TD]
[TD]Texas[/TD]
[TD]274.9[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[TD]43.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[TD]160.0[/TD]
[TD]4.7[/TD]
[TD]34.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]LSU[/TD]
[TD]211.62[/TD]
[TD]4.9[/TD]
[TD]43.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[TD]231.14[/TD]
[TD]5.94[/TD]
[TD]38.93[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]215.07[/TD]
[TD]5.01[/TD]
[TD]215.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]Auburn[/TD]
[TD]284.79[/TD]
[TD]6.12[/TD]
[TD]46.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]214.46[/TD]
[TD]5.49[/TD]
[TD]39.08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]227.5[/TD]
[TD]5.59[/TD]
[TD]40.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD]129.67[/TD]
[TD]4.13[/TD]
[TD]32.0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
So far in 2013, Alabama is averaging 129.67 yards per game on the ground, with a 4.13 average per rush and only
32 attempts per contest. In the first quarter of games this season, Alabama ranks 116[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing yards with 21 carries for 58 yards and only three first downs. In other words, the Crimson Tide simply cannot run the football early in games and although the stats get better as the game progresses, it still isnāt good enough.
The Crimson Tide need to be able to wear down opponents, because they are bigger and stronger than every team on their schedule. After Ole Miss this weekend in Tuscaloosa, the schedule gives them a break until LSUās travels to Tuscaloosa, so maybe we will see Alabama start to effectively run the ball.
But if they donāt, expect the Tide to go down somewhere throughout the season.
A national championship victory from a team anywhere outside the top 25 in rushing would be unprecedented, especially for a team that relies on the running game as much, if not more, than any team in college football today.
More than likely, Nick Sabanās team will figure it out. Donāt they always? But they better figure it out fast, because the lack of a running game shows statistically that it will keep a team from winning a national championship.
