| FTBL Take aways from week 4

[Elderfalsedemigod]

Oh another takeaway, Christian Barmore will break an opposing player soon. That man plays mad as hell

 

[TerryP]

SOS.... It matters.

Not saying Alabama doesn't have the better D, I think we do... But where does SOS fit in to your synopsis? It should

I'm mobile. If you've got a minute look at their schedule. Offenses faced, defense versus defense.

 

[Tidestalker]

Oh another takeaway, Christian Barmore will break an opposing player soon. That man plays mad as hell

Fo realz. I'm pumped about that dude.... Gives me the A'Shawn flashbacks in term of size and aggressiveness

 

[Bamabww]

I haven't seen any team that I would be scared for Bama to play. We're young in some positions but those youngsters most of the time rise to the occasion. I haven't seen anyone who could cover our receivers.

Oh another takeaway, Christian Barmore will break an opposing player soon. That man plays mad as hell

Yeah and he's gonna kick ass and take names the more he plays.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Kne of vandys TDs was defensive TD
Plus lsu played mostly 2s in second half.
Happens

 

[Elderfalsedemigod]

Plus lsu played mostly 2s in second half.

I believe Alabama has been plying 2s on defense pretty much the whole game every game

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

I believe Alabama has been plying 2s on defense pretty much the whole game every game

That is not the case. If you look at Bama vs USM you will see Nick had the 1st team in the game in the 4th QTR and he still had the 1st team DB's in the game with less than 8 minutes to go. With so much youth that needs the minutes you have to assume he fells the minutes is more important than the risk.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

The "it" factor. As I said earlier, you may be right. I feel as the opposite of that has as much chance to be true as well.

In the SEC who would we compare him to today when it comes to that "it" factor? We can't use Tua; worlds apart. Fromm? Is that a good place to start? Fromm was completing over 60% of his passes as a TF while Nix is a 50% guy. He has accuracy issues, wouldn't you agree?

So, we're left with how does a QB improve on his accuracy? A good QB coach? Well, we don't see that in Gus based on what we've seen him do. Will it require a coaching change for him to reach his potential? I'd dare say, "Yes. Yes it will."

Is Jake Bentley a better comparison? IF so, again we're looking at the same thing with Fromm. Accuracy.

As Matt pointed out we're just looking at four games. However, we're also looking at Nix facing better secondaries as the year progresses. It's arguable these numbers will drop.

Does Franks at UF or Mond at A&M also have that it factor? I ask because what we're seeing out of Nix mirrors that we saw from both of those guys.

Mond has a Commodore 64 processer where at least a I3 processor is required. That pick he threw last year down at the barn that lost the game of A&M is his normal play. He does get on a streak every now and then and plays over his mental ability as he did vs The King. Franks is a head case period.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

I believe Alabama has been plying 2s on defense pretty much the whole game every game

Cause 1s are injured. True. 5 freshman started.

 

[Elderfalsedemigod]

That is not the case. If you look at Bama vs USM you will see Nick had the 1st team in the game in the 4th QTR and he still had the 1st team DB's in the game with less than 8 minutes to go. With so much youth that needs the minutes you have to assume he fells the minutes is more important than the risk.

My point was UA has been playing 2s on defense since season began and continues to play more 2s with each injury

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

My point was UA has been playing 2s on defense since season began and continues to play more 2s with each injury

I watched the game for the 2nd time yesterday and I was surprised how many starters were in the game so late in the 4th qtr with the score. There was a time way way back where the teams that were getting drilled would pull their 1st team and the team doing the azz kicking would do the same but not anymore. What you get is the losers 1st team is better than the winners 2nd team thus they will score if you're not careful.

 

[mando]

The D needs reps. I would expect they will keep playing pattern to get on the job training. That is just where we are with the circumstances surrounding this team.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

My point was UA has been playing 2s on defense since season began and continues to play more 2s with each injury

So that really makes the 2s...the 1s?

 

[TerryP]

	LSU
Opponent	FPI	Ranking if applicable
Ga Southern	N/R out of 130 teams.	N/A
Texas	17	11
Northwestern State	N/R out of 130 teams	N/A
Vanderbilt	72	N/A
Avg.	You tell me...how to compare unranked teams?

	Alabama
Opponent	FPI	Ranking if applicable
Duke	50	Receiving votes/ not in the top 25
New Mexico State	123	N/A
South Carolina	30	N/A
Southern Miss	80	N/A
AVG	@70th

There are a few outliers when comparing the two schedules. One, Texas. And secondly, how do you quantify competition when two of the teams aren't even in the top 130 in the FPI rankings?


Based purely on four teams and their FPI rankings Bama has had a more difficult schedule overall.
Based on name alone and the rankings in the polls Texas is the rack LSU hangs their hat on.
If we use Southern Miss and Vanderbilt we can cancel those two out as equals. That'll leaves us with NMS and South Carolina against two unranked teams. (you can shuffle these any way you want.)

Does it all boil down to Texas and Duke? Is the narrative going to be "since LSU played Texas they've had a harder schedule than Bama's Duke game?"

If so, let's look at that for a second.

I'm looking at a Bama defense, with its youth, facing a Cutcliffe scheme which started out using the triple option. Ask yourself, "how often was that practiced against?" It wasn't. We watched a team face an offensive attack they weren't expecting. Once in the first half, and then Duke attacking the weaknesses of the Bama defense in the second half (much to the degree we expected.)

I'm looking at a LSU defense with its experience returning facing a Texas offense with Herman at the helm, Ehlinger leading the attack. What did Texas do that was any different than what everyone expected Texas to do? Mano vs Mano, right, scheme versus scheme, with the only "surprise" in the game found on the offensive side (LSU.) But, we're talking about defense here...not Texas adjusting to LSU.

In the end we're left with a question. Did LSU have a more difficult team to prepare and play in Texas or did Alabama and Duke? There are pro's and con's on both sides here, but I'm seeing close to a wash. A wash, because Bama's defense was facing Cutcliffe and the game plans that he brings to the field of play. LSU is able to prepare for one because that's what Texas does. Alabama isn't able to prepare for the other, because that's not what Duke has done. LSU wasn't faced with immediate, in game, scheme adjustments whereas Bama had to deal with the same from the first snap of the game.

In the end, I'm looking from a purely statistical standpoint. We can't discount two of the four teams LSU has faced aren't even ranked in the FPI's index. They aren't good enough. All four for Bama. Overall, how can LSU's schedule be considered more difficult right now?

That being said, by the time the ninth of October rolls around LSU will have a schedule strength argument having faced both Florida and Auburn versus Bama having to deal with A&M (a team I don't consider to be "all that.") And, on the same note, by that time we should expect the statistical comparisons between to the two teams to be even more slanted to Bama's favor.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

	LSU
Opponent	FPI	Ranking if applicable
Ga Southern	N/R out of 130 teams.	N/A
Texas	17	11
Northwestern State	N/R out of 130 teams	N/A
Vanderbilt	72	N/A
Avg.	You tell me...how to compare unranked teams?

	Alabama
Opponent	FPI	Ranking if applicable
Duke	50	Receiving votes/ not in the top 25
New Mexico State	123	N/A
South Carolina	30	N/A
Southern Miss	80	N/A
AVG	@70th

There are a few outliers when comparing the two schedules. One, Texas. And secondly, how do you quantify competition when two of the teams aren't even in the top 130 in the FPI rankings?



Based purely on four teams and their FPI rankings Bama has had a more difficult schedule overall.
Based on name alone and the rankings in the polls Texas is the rack LSU hangs their hat on.
If we use Southern Miss and Vanderbilt we can cancel those two out as equals. That'll leaves us with NMS and South Carolina against two unranked teams. (you can shuffle these any way you want.)

Does it all boil down to Texas and Duke? Is the narrative going to be "since LSU played Texas they've had a harder schedule than Bama's Duke game?"

If so, let's look at that for a second.

I'm looking at a Bama defense, with its youth, facing a Cutcliffe scheme which started out using the triple option. Ask yourself, "how often was that practiced against?" It wasn't. We watched a team face an offensive attack they weren't expecting. Once in the first half, and then Duke attacking the weaknesses of the Bama defense in the second half (much to the degree we expected.)

I'm looking at a LSU defense with its experience returning facing a Texas offense with Herman at the helm, Ehlinger leading the attack. What did Texas do that was any different than what everyone expected Texas to do? Mano vs Mano, right, scheme versus scheme, with the only "surprise" in the game found on the offensive side (LSU.) But, we're talking about defense here...not Texas adjusting to LSU.

In the end we're left with a question. Did LSU have a more difficult team to prepare and play in Texas or did Alabama and Duke? There are pro's and con's on both sides here, but I'm seeing close to a wash. A wash, because Bama's defense was facing Cutcliffe and the game plans that he brings to the field of play. LSU is able to prepare for one because that's what Texas does. Alabama isn't able to prepare for the other, because that's not what Duke has done. LSU wasn't faced with immediate, in game, scheme adjustments whereas Bama had to deal with the same from the first snap of the game.

In the end, I'm looking from a purely statistical standpoint. We can't discount two of the four teams LSU has faced aren't even ranked in the FPI's index. They aren't good enough. All four for Bama. Overall, how can LSU's schedule be considered more difficult right now?

That being said, by the time the ninth of October rolls around LSU will have a schedule strength argument having faced both Florida and Auburn versus Bama having to deal with A&M (a team I don't consider to be "all that.") And, on the same note, by that time we should expect the statistical comparisons between to the two teams to be even more slanted to Bama's favor.

I bet ur in accounting.....it takes one to EVEN dream up how to skew so much info to justify your predetermined conclusion.... you will do well

 

[TerryP]

I bet ur in accounting.....it takes one to EVEN dream up how to skew so much info to justify your predetermined conclusion.... you will do well

Not even close. Hate math with a passion.

I notice in your critique you've failed to say why it's wrong. Is it because you have a predetermined conclusion they have had a tougher row to hoe based on one game, Texas?

 

[Max]

it takes one to EVEN dream up how to skew so much info to justify your predetermined conclusion.... you will do well

How is posting pure statistical measurements dreaming? A team playing four teams ranked versus a team playing two teams ranked out of a group of 130!

Dreaming would be saying two is equal to four.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Not even close. Hate math with a passion.

I notice in your critique you've failed to say why it's wrong. Is it because you have a predetermined conclusion they have had a tougher row to hoe based on one game, Texas?

And @12gage

Didnt say it was wrong.....said it was....ummmm...creative.....
Putting Duke....above Texas....as a harder team to prepare for....that .....is....a...stretch ..... but ok....Duke wouldnt finish in top half of big12 ( or Acc)....Texas would finish 1st or 2nd...in Acc...( 1st a stretch)....
Terry.....you hate math?.....use a lot of metrics these days......
And really who cares about bottom of bottom of bottom.....teams each has faced...NW state and ga southern......for lsu
And ....usm n nm state...for bama....i give those a wash....
Neither vandy nor USCe....are much.....
But...my friend.....and 12gage also....more competition coming....so..till then....

 

[TerryP]

Terry.....you hate math?.....use a lot of metrics these days......

Using statistics as a measurement and being accused of being an accountant. Two worlds apart. Out of all the white collar professions accounting may be the most mundane of them all.

Putting Duke....above Texas....as a harder team to prepare for....that .....is....a...stretch ..... but ok....Duke wouldnt finish in top half of big12 ( or Acc)....Texas would finish 1st or 2nd...in Acc...( 1st a stretch)....

How is a stretch?

Did Texas do anything against LSU that they didn't do last season? Was there anything about prep for Texas that was a secret?

Yet, Duke comes out against Bama in the triple option. Something Bama had not prepared for. Cut, known for his offensive schemes, was something I pointed to time and time again (with you several times) stating they are going to give this defense something they have not seen. It'll be a challenge against his scheme.

What I said about Duke all summer came true: exactly true. Where they might hypothetically finish in the Big 12 has nothing to do with the challenge a defense would face comparing Texas and Duke.

The subject of the conversation here is about two defenses and how the competition they've faced measures up against each other.

As I suggested, you're hung up on one game, one team. An accountant would tell you your missing three key data points--the other three teams. But again, that's not the subject at hand. It's about the competition each defense has faced.

And really who cares about bottom of bottom of bottom.....teams each has faced...NW state and ga southern......for lsu

That's the subject, bro. The strength of the competition in four games.

You may think Texas is a more difficult team to prepare for versus Duke. I say you're wrong. One was known, the other not. There are caveats, if's, and's, or but's to that.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Using statistics as a measurement and being accused of being an accountant

TERRY, ACCOUNTANT IS AN HONORABLE PROFESSION. I WAS JUST JIVING YOU AND YOUR METRICS ABOUT FUTURE ACCOUNTING PROFESSION.....
LOL.

As I suggested, you're hung up on one game, one team. An accountant would tell you your missing three key data points......

NOW, YOU ARE USING ACCOUNTANT STUFF AGAIN...DONT KNOW WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS!

You may think Texas is a more difficult team to prepare for versus Duke. I say you're wrong. One was known, the other not. There are caveats, if's, and's, or but's to that.

Sorry about capitals used in above...just wanted to separate "you said...i said."

....Biggest thing to me...in the ifs, ands and buts catagory.......is Texas brought back QB and Duke didnt.....
And the Texas QB......welll......he be pretty good....just ask UGA