🏈 Sugar Bowl Preview: Part 3- Utah's offense vs UA's defense.

[CRIMSONTUSKS.COM BLOG]

{Sorry for the delay guys. We had this published on the blog but forgot to link it here

- RTB.com Writing Staff}

Sugar Bowl Preview- Part 3: UA Defense vs Utah Offense
December 30, 2008

By Terry Pellman

With the announcement that All-American Alabama left tackle Andre Smith had been suspended for the Sugar Bowl one might suspect the way this game is played out has suddenly changed.

In the second part of our game preview we looked at the Alabama offense and how they matched up against the Utah defense. One area pointed to was the running game and the approach the Tide would likely take against the Ute defensive line and linebackers. Even with the suspension of Andre, the approach Alabama takes to this ball game hasn’t, and won’t, change.

But, and perhaps most importantly, the area we see this game being decided within isn’t what we’ve already discussed. It’s what we’ll look at today when we look at how the Alabama defense will defend a good Utah offense that’ll define the outcome. Herein lies the main reason Alabama wins its NCAA leading 32nd bowl win in its 13th Sugar Bowl appearance.

Rest the rest here

 

[SkinyUte]

That's a good write-up. I found this bit interesting:

What is strikingly absent on the Utah front is the number of “big play receptions” they’ve been able to achieve this season. Ironically, those “big play receptions” are something this Crimson Tide defense hasn’t allowed many of as well.

As I think back on the season, Utah really isn't a "big play" type of team. Outside of a couple long plays (Louks 70-yard run vs. CSU, Johnson's 54-yard scramble vs. UNLV, and Reed's TD catch vs. BYU are really the only ones that jump to mind), we really don't bust many plays for big yardage. I actually chuckle a bit when the media types label us as an "explosive" offense, since I really don't see us that way at all. I think "methodical" would be a much more accurate term. Johnson doesn't have a big downfield arm, but he's a master at the 5 to 15 yard dink-and-dunk passes. He's gotten much more patient as the year has progressed, and (thankfully) has stopped staring down his receivers. It'll be interesting to see if he can maintain that composure against faster DB's than he's used to seeing.

With regards to the running game, I wouldn't be surprised to see us attack the edges with our speed guys more than trying to establish our bruiser backs. I imagine we'll see lots of the Louks package (he's our super-fast mobile QB), wide swings or pitches to the receivers (Casteel, usually), and we might also see more from one of our seldom-used speed backs, Eddie Wide. My hope is that our OC doesn't try the same thing we did against TCU, which was to keep running our slow(er) bruiser backs on toss sweeps over and over again. Team speed negates that (similar to Bama's), and we all got very frustrated seeing us keep trying those runs with no success. Look for Johnson to run a lot more than usual as well. They've kept him out of the running game for the most part this year, simply because of his injury history. With this being his last game, I'm sure they'll pull out all the stops.

I am very concerned, however, with how the team will respond to losing both the OC and DC prior to the game. Losing the DC isn't as big of a deal, since our HC is completely a defensive guy. Losing the OC, however, could be a big blow. My only hope is that Ludwig was sincere when he told the media he will not be doing anything for K-State until after this game. He's going to need to call a perfect game for us to have a chance, and the only way to do that is if he's put in a boatload of prep time. We'll see what happens, but I'm really worried about it.

 

[U-Ute]

First, that's a fantastic write-up. In depth, well thought out, and well informed. Great stuff.

I'll have to agree with SkinyUte on the big play thing. I don't remember Utah having many big plays this year.

If there is one thing that stood out for me, it was the number of third down conversions we got, and I'm not talking about the 3rd and 1 type of conversions. I'm talking about the 3rd and 4 or the 3rd and 7 ones. Brian Johnson and our receiving corps were really good at moving the sticks.

My biggest concern isn't the "SEC speed", but rather the "BCS depth" Alabama has over Utah. If this game is close in the 4th quarter, it is going to be very difficult for Utah to win. For the Utes to win, we have to score some points and get your guys out of their comfort zone, and from what I have seen, that's going to be very difficult.

For the Utes to win, Brian Johnson has to have a spectacular game a-la the BYU game. But, if there is one thing I've learned about Brian Johnson is that he's a gamer. The bigger the game, the better he is.

Here's to a great game tonight and to no injuries.

Good luck. I'll be around whether the Utes win or lose.

Go Utes!

U-Ute

 

[TerryP]

When we lost the game against UF, the deciding factor was 3rd down conversions; better said was our inability to stop them converting on 3rd down in their go ahead drive.

So, it was something I looked at.

Both teams have had success on 3rd downs this season, offensively and defensively.

Utah has converted 76 out of 167, Bama 72 out of 170. Interestingly enough, the defensive numbers reflect the same proximity; you've allowed 50 conversions out of 165 attempts while Bama has allowed 50 out of 185.

Where the difference comes in is the majority of our first downs this year have come running the ball vs Utah putting it in the air.

-{Just to add a note...if it comes down to it.

Bama 8-10 on fourth, Utah 10 for 15 on fourth on offense.

10 for 20 allowed for Bama vs 6 for 15 for the Utes on defense.}-

 

[U-Ute]

When we lost the game against UF, the deciding factor was 3rd down conversions; better said was our inability to stop them converting on 3rd down in their go ahead drive.

That being said, football is a game of making first downs. So 3rd down conversions pretty much win/lose you the game. I almost posted that I thought the key would be which team could convert on 3rd down, but I figured that was a tautology, so I rephrased it that BJ has to have a phenomenol game because I think it's going to depend on him to converting difficult third downs.

Go Utes!

U-Ute

 

[TerryP]

When we lost the game against UF, the deciding factor was 3rd down conversions; better said was our inability to stop them converting on 3rd down in their go ahead drive.

That being said, football is a game of making first downs. So 3rd down conversions pretty much win/lose you the game. I almost posted that I thought the key would be which team could convert on 3rd down, but I figured that was a tautology, so I rephrased it that BJ has to have a phenomenol game because I think it's going to depend on him to converting difficult third downs.

Go Utes!

U-Ute

Not so much a case of using a redundant point, it's a solid observation. When you mentioned it I wanted to say I thought it was a valid point because it was something I had paid attn. to...in fact, in some detail. (went as far as looking at play by play accounts looking at down and distance)

A few weeks ago this conversation came up with another visiting Ute fan. One of the main subjects of that conversation was whether you'd choose to pass the ball on 3rd down w/ 4 yards (or fewer) or rely on your running game

My point during that conversation is I didn't think you'd be able to run the ball very successfully on 3rd and short. The middle of our defense is simply too stout. When it comes to moving the line of scrimmage in a situation like that I have to give the advantage to our line.

FWIW, if I were you, I'd be worried if I saw Sakoda on the field four or more times in the first half.

 

[U-Ute]

FWIW, if I were you, I'd be worried if I saw Sakoda on the field four or more times in the first half.

To a certain extent, I agree. It depends on if you guys have been cramming the ball down our throats and getting long sustained drives. If you're getting yardage and we're not, points or no, then yes, I agree, we'll be in trouble.

U-Ute

 

[U-Ute]

One quibble I have about part 1 of your analysis is that it really doesn't matter if the slights are coming from our opponents, fans, or media, or even if they are real or imagined.

All that matters is that our team believes they are being slighted. College football is a game of hunger and passion, so I gotta think that this perception, if it is perceived that way by our team, is an important external factor.

Just a thought.

T-119 minutes. Time to go get the ribs and wings.

Go Utes!

U-Ute