🏈 Sugar Bowl pre-game discussions

College Football Playoff predictions: Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win it all

The College Football Playoff is approaching quickly, and that means we're closer to finding out which team will emerge as 2017's national champion. As has always been the case, Alabama is in this year's playoff, and this time it's looking to wipe the bad taste out of its mouth following last year's loss to Clemson in the title game.

Alabama has won four national titles under Nick Saban, but even though the Tide have never missed the College Football Playoff, they have only won once in the last four years. That's fantastic for everyone else, but it's a title drought in Tuscaloosa.

So what makes this 2017 Alabama team ready to put an end to the title drought?

1. This is familiar territory for the Tide. Both Clemson and Oklahoma have players that have been to the College Football Playoff before, but neither has the amount of experience that Alabama has. If you're a senior or a redshirt junior on this Alabama team, this will be your fourth time going to the College Football Playoff. While it's hardly a deciding factor in games like this, it's still important, and it can provide an edge.

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Just about everybody on the Alabama roster has been through it already. They know what kind of preparations to make while closing out a semester of school and spending time with the family during holidays, all while preparing for a huge game. The moment won't be too big for this Alabama team. It's met it too many times before.

THE CASE FOR ...

2. It's such a balanced team. Every team has its strengths and weaknesses. There is no such thing as a perfect football team, particularly this season. But what makes Alabama different is that its weaknesses are typically better than your strengths.

When you think of Alabama during the Nick Saban Era, you picture a suffocating defense, and some giant running backs rumbling over opponents and wearing them down. These stereotypes remain true, but they don't paint the entire picture of what Alabama is.

Its defense is amazing, yes. If you use advanced metrics like S&P+, this Alabama defense ranks in the top 10 across the board. Whether it's limiting big plays, stopping the run, stopping the pass, or just getting off the field, Alabama's defense does a phenomenal job.

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But it's offense isn't much worse. Using the same advanced metrics, Alabama's offense ranks in the top 10 in success rate and explosive plays. Its passing offense also finished in the top 10 nationally, as it is ranked sixth in the country. That means its rushing attack -- ranked 14th -- is actually the weakness.

When Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough are your weak spots, you're damn strong.

And lest we forget about special teams, the Fremeau Efficiency Index ranks Alabama's special teams unit as the No. 15 group in the country. Alabama does everything, and it does it well.

3. Alabama is the best team in the country. And it has been all season. That's not to say that this version of the Tide is the same dominant force we've seen before, but compared to everyone else in college football, it's the No. 1 team. That's why it's favored over Clemson even if Clemson is ranked No. 1 and Alabama is No. 4.

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The only reason Alabama isn't ranked higher is that it lost to Auburn late in the season. Well, you'll have to forgive me for not believing that a loss at Auburn suddenly means Alabama wasn't better than everybody else all year long. I'm not trying to knock either Clemson or Oklahoma -- two terrific teams -- but they did lose to Syracuse and Iowa State respectively. Alabama didn't win its division or its conference, but an eight-point loss to your rival on the road doesn't wipe out everything you did beforehand. Not in my book.

Alabama was the best team in college football all season, it's the best team right now, and it'll be the best team once the dust settles after the College Football Playoff as well.

College Football Playoff predictions: Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win it all
 
By Tony Tsoukalas

NEW ORLEANS — Alabama worked inside of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Thursday as it prepared for its Sugar Bowl matchup against Clemson on Monday. Players were dressed in shorts and shells for the workout.

Here are some notes from the media viewing period:

— Defensive end La’Bryan Ray (foot) was wearing a regular jersey and did not appear to be limited during practice.

— Offensive lineman Brandon Kennedy (leg) and defensive back Nigel Knott were both wearing black jerseys and were walking stairs toward the end of practice.

— Shaun Dion Hamilton (broken kneecap) and Miller Forristall (ACL) were both on stationary bikes. Forristall was only moving his arms during the workout. I wouldn’t read too much into Hamilton on the stationary bike. He’s just there rehabbing and won’t be available this season.

— Injured safety Hootie Jones (MCL) was on crutches while linebacker Dylan Moses (foot) was sitting on the bench in a sweatsuit. Moses was not wearing a shoe on his left foot.

— Running backs were going up against linebackers for ball-out drills. The drill called for two linebackers to rip away at the ball as the running back ran down the field. I didn’t see any of the running backs fumble the ball.

— Jalen Hurts was throwing short passes to the wide receivers while Tua Tagovailoa threw the same routes to the running backs.

— Wide receivers worked on footwork drills that also called for them to high-point the football at the end of the drill.

— Derek Kief had a sleeve on his left leg. He was working with the rest of the receivers and did not appear to be limited.

— Defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick was still wearing a hamstring-support strip but did not appear to be limited during the workout.

— Defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt was working hands on with the inside linebackers. There doesn’t seem to be a distraction between Pruitt and the players despite the defensive coordinator taking the head coaching job at Tennessee earlier this month.

Thursday practice report (Clemson week) | BamaInsider.com
 
Interesting comments:
But against the three most talented defenses it faced -- Auburn, LSU and Florida State -- Alabama averaged just 294 yards (127.3 pass yards per game) and 20.7 points. Two of those performances occurred during the final four regular-season games, when Alabama completed 48 total passes. Ridley is the only Tide player to record more than two receptions in any of those games.

"Alabama really misses Lane Kiffin," a SEC defensive coordinator said. "It's not the same. They miss the creativity and the big plays. Toward the end of that Auburn game, they just continued to run their core plays and Auburn's just sitting on it because it's all they've ever repped.

"It's more of a defensive coordinator's offense."

It makes sense, given Saban's background, and probably contributed to why he and Kiffin clashed at times. But Kiffin's gift, according to opposing coaches, was identifying a defense's weaknesses and calling plays that Alabama hadn't run often or at all, which caught defenses by surprise. This year's Tide offense is likelier to stick with safe, successful plays and force the opponent to stop them.

"The only thing they can fall back to, Alabama, in watching them, was designed quarterback runs," a Power 5 defensive coordinator said. "That's their baby. If they go to the quarterback run early in the [Clemson] game, that's it. Nothing else. That's their trump card."
Link
 
Alabama players feel Jeremy Pruitt is '100 percent focused' on Clemson

NEW ORLEANS — Ronnie Harrison hasn’t let his defensive coordinator off the hook completely. The jovial Alabama safety admits he’s taken advantage of the opportunity to mess with Jeremy Pruitt ever since he took the head coaching position at Tennessee earlier this month.
“Oh yeah, I joke with him a little bit about going to Tennessee,” Harrison said. “I just sing ‘Rocky Top’ and all that, just messing with him a little.”
Although, as No. 4 Alabama prepares for its Sugar Bowl matchup against No. 1 Clemson on Monday, the quirky Tennessee folk song is the only bit of Knoxville to make it into Alabama’s practices.
Pruitt was hired by Tennessee on Dec. 7 but decided to remain at his position of defensive coordinator at Alabama until the end of the College Football Playoff. Immediately after being hired by Tennessee, Pruitt hit the recruiting trail, building his new class until returning to Alabama on Dec. 18 when the dead period of recruiting started.
Since then his focus has been preparing his defense for another playoff run.
“It was normal the first day I walked back in,” Pruitt said. “I’ve got a very close relationship with the players here. These guys are excited for me just like I’m excited for them, so it wasn’t any different.”
Talking to reporters Friday, Pruitt took a no-nonsense approach to the topic, asking reporters to keep their questions centered around the matchup against Clemson. He remained adamant that the situation was not distracting and said the day-to-day process really hasn’t been any different than normal.
“We spend every day, the staff at Alabama, we’re going to work on football and work on recruiting at night,” Pruitt said. “The only difference is instead of recruiting for Alabama, I’m recruiting for Tennessee.”
If there has been a distraction, Pruitt hasn’t let it show. According to his players, the defensive coordinator hasn’t missed a beat since returning to the team.
“Coach Pruitt has been 100 percent focused on winning this game,” defensive lineman Da’Ron Payne said. “He’s doing whatever he can do to get us better.”
Practices haven’t been any easier either.
“He’s had the same work ethic and the same enthusiasm,” Harrison said. “He’s still all-in to this team until the season is over. We just respect him for it and appreciate him.”
That appreciation goes both ways and is a big part of why Pruitt decided to finish out his run at Alabama. And when Alabama takes the field Monday night, it will be the only thing on his mind.
“The reason I’m in this business is for the players,” Pruitt said. “That’s probably the most important thing to me out there is having a positive impact on people’s lives. I have a special bond with the guys that are here.”

BamaInsider.com - Alabama players feel Jeremy Pruitt is '100 percent focused' on Clemson
 
It has been a while since I have heard anything about Lewis and Miller. Are they back to 100%?
@colbyjacks, this is all I could find


Transcripts from the Defense PC (12/29)

COACH PRUITT: I just want to say, first of all, we're excited to be here to be a part of the Allstate Sugar Bowl. A big thank you to everybody that's involved in the City of New Orleans. We've had a week of practice back in Tuscaloosa. Our kids have prepared hard. They really studied tape. I think we've learned some lessons from last year's game ‑‑ the last couple years' games. Our guys are excited to get another opportunity.

Clemson is a very good football team, very well‑coached. Got four starters on the offensive line that have played a lot of football. Probably over a hundred starts between those four guys. Got a quarterback that's extremely athletic. Several really good runners and obviously the guys out there on the edge are playmakers that can make plays in the screen game but can also beat you over the top. So with that, I'll take any questions.

Q. How difficult was it, with the early signing period, to balance your duties at Tennessee with what you do at Alabama?

COACH PRUITT: The first thing, I just want to say this: I'm excited about being the head football coach at Tennessee. It's a tremendous opportunity, a great university and I'm thankful to have it.

But right now I'm working as a defensive coordinator at Alabama, and I'd like for these questions to be targeted toward this game and the players that are associated with this game.

Q. Jeremy, people have come to you at Alabama. Has anybody reached out to you about how to balance the fairness process?

COACH PRUITT: I'm going to say it again; I want to talk about this game.

Q. But what about the responsibilities?

COACH PRUITT: When I was at Tennessee, I worked on getting ready for that class. And it was easy going back to start focusing on getting ready to play Clemson. The recruiting part was over with on Wednesday, the signing day.

Q. Did it feel like ‑‑ when you got back with the staff, did you just kind of roll right back into it? Was there some process that you had to kind of go through?

COACH PRUITT: No. I mean, working for Coach [Nick] Saban, this is the eighth year I have worked with Coach Saban. We have a tremendous staff in Tosh Lupoi, Karl Dunbar, Derrick Ansley. So we're all not only ‑‑ we work together. We're all really close, very good friends. And we've done it for a while together, and it wasn't really that hard.

Q. How have your injuries at linebacker, starting with the first game, how much adjusting and everything have you had to do this season? And, also, could you talk about the loss of Dylan Moses? Is Christopher Allen likely to play this week?

COACH PRUITT: You know, we've had an unfortunate run of injuries this year. We lost several guys at the beginning of the year. Lost Anfernee Jennings. Lost Rashaan Evans. Lost Christian Miller. Lost Terrell Lewis. Some of the guys were out all the way up to the Auburn game. Some guys missed three to four games.

It's been an unusual year with it. We've had to move guys around. And it's probably hurt some of the young guys' growth and development because you're going to develop as you play the same position because of the injuries. We had to move guys around, and it says a lot about the leadership of our team trying to help the young guys to develop. And the guys have been bought in all year and willing to do and sacrifice to play any position that they needed to.

So we've got a lot of those guys back now. We did unfortunately lose Dylan [Moses] last week. And it's a shame because he had really played well the last two games. And that was another guy that had changed positions. So we'll just have to ‑‑ next guy up, that's kind of been the philosophy of our guys all year.

Q. What are the things that make Kelly Bryant unique? We've heard so much about how great Deshaun Watson is. He's had a pretty good year, too. What are the some of the challenges he possesses?

COACH PRUITT: First of all, he's a big man. He's a big man. He can run, great athlete. He understands our offense. He's been in their system. He's been behind Deshaun Watson, so I'm sure he learned a lot.

These guys do a great job spreading the ball around. They stretch you with their RPO game. When he's running the football, it's a lot like wildcat, lots of lead blockers. And it's almost like he's the 12th man. He has really good arm talent. He's got playmakers on the outside. He can make all the throws. So if you decide to defend him and you are running with him down the field man‑to‑man, you have got to be able to control him because with his feet, he can create explosive plays. But he also will scramble and look to push the ball down the field.

He's a very talented individual.

Q. What does Christian [Miller] being back with you guys, how does that help your team?

COACH PRUITT: I think all the guys that are back, we're excited to have everything back, not just Christian. First of all, it provides us depth and we've got guys who are now kind of playing the positions that they played over the last couple years.

That's the one thing, you sit there and guys have kind of waited their time. As a football player, you get better the more you do something. And these guys that set here for the last couple years and played behind some really good players, it was unfortunate that we lost some of them. But having them back, it gives us a little bit of experience over some of the freshman.

Q. What do you think of Mack [Wilson] in recent weeks? How important will he be in this matchup, especially with Dylan [Moses] gone?

COACH PRUITT: Mack has played the entire year really with a foot injury. So we've had to limit what he could do at practice. He had the surgery after the LSU game. The fact he's been back obviously will help us, especially with Dylan being out. We're excited to have him back. We need him back. He was playing really well until he got hurt. So we'll see how he plays in this game.

Q. What kind of sacrifices have you had to make from sending pressure from the secondary? And how do you think that's affected your ability to defend on third downs?

COACH PRUITT: The one thing is, if you're going to bring pressure, you're putting ‑‑ you're going to put pressure on the back end. So if you are going to bring five or six guys, somewhere there's going to be pressure. The big thing defensively is you want to be able to hide the pressure. So that's the one thing you got to do. If you're going to do it, you've got to be able to disguise and it bring it from different spots.

But we have some guys in the back end that can play man‑to‑man. And for us to this win this game, we'll have to play man‑to‑man just because of the quarterback. The guy can hurt you with his feet and their run game. So we'll have to get up there and put some pressure on the back end.


Ronnie Harrison | Defensive Back | University of Alabama

(on the Alabama vs. Clemson rivalry): “Well since we have played them the past two years, it has become a rivalry. It’s always a physical and tough game.”

(on Hunter Renfrow): “He’s a great player. He’s a very smart route runner and has great plays and also has the ability to make plays after the catch.”

(on a chance to redeem themselves from the loss to Clemson last season): “The loss last year is definitely on our minds and in our hearts. It has made us focused and prepared.”

(on the similarities and differences between Deshaun Watson and Kelly Bryant): “I really don’t see a drop off. They are both efficient on the ground and through the air. They both make the offense go.”

(on the difference of having a Defensive Coordinator through this process): “It means a lot. We already built a bond all year. We trust that he will put us in the right place throughout this playoff game.”

(on the different feeling in this playoff, not knowing for sure Alabama would be in): “Definitely, all year we felt that we deserved to be here. Ending the season the way we did and having our fate in the hands of the selection committee hurt. We just want to prove that we are supposed to be here.”


Da’Ron Payne | Defensive Lineman | University of Alabama

(on the preparation with Coach Jeremy Pruitt): “He has been ready to go and focused on winning the game. We are all very excited for the opportunity he and his family have at the University of Tennessee.”

(on stopping Kelly Bryant from making big runs): “We will run the Alabama defense and the standards that come with that by reading our keys, staying disciplined, and remaining in our pass-rush lanes.”

(on the difference this year from the previous two years): “I feel like the game will have just as much physicality. It is going to be a hard-nosed game that will be fought well. I have stressed to our guys that it will be vital to win upfront in the trenches.”

(on this year’s Clemson team compared to last year): “It doesn’t matter. What matters is the way Alabama plays. It’s all about doing your job as an individual.”

(on his individual performance this year): “I’ve been much better at third down rips and pass rush. I’ve felt more comfortable in the run game as well.”

Levi Wallace | Defensive Back | University of Alabama

(on Clemson’s offense being the same as previous meetings): “Yeah. Looking at the film from previous years and seeing them on TV almost every Saturday looks the same except for a different quarterback in the backfield. They rotate guys in just like everyone else.”

(on one difference from Clemson): Uh yeah their running game. Their running game has really developed this year. They have two great running backs and I think that that’s really helped them this year.”

(on what makes Clemson successful against Alabama’s type of defense): “He’s [Kelly Bryant] very quick. He [Bryant] has great handwork. They’ve got a guy who can make all the catches and run all the routs; one of the best receivers in the nation.”

(on how much time has been spent on run plays at practice): *laughs* “I can’t disclose that information.”

(on a revenge factor in this game): “Yeah it’s always in the back of your mind but we can’t focus on what happened last year. We just have to move forward. It’s a different Clemson team, different quarterback, different skilled positions. We have to keep moving forward how we want to.”


Rashaan Evans | Linebacker | University of Alabama

(on his injury): “I felt really limited with the injury I have. It took me some time to get back and feel how I wanted to feel. It was very stiff but getting the chance to play through some of these games gives it a chance to get better. The break time too has made it a lot better for me to be able to run like I want to now.”

(on if he thought the injury was season-ending): “For sure. For any player to go through the things that I went through, I thought maybe this was it. I was a little scared, but when I got back and looked at it wasn’t too bad.”

(on what makes Clemson’s running backs unique): “They’re all very versatile. They all can make big plays. Most of the time they like to get it to those guys on the perimeter to give them a chance to get on the outside and run. I think they’re going to use their whole rotation on us to try and break us down. Clemson does a pretty good job of utilizing those guys whatever their skillsets are.”

(on motivation): “Real motivation, fabricated motivation is all the same depending on how you take it. We really don’t listen to a lot of the media. Some of that stuff really clouds your mind. All we can really do right now is stay focused and look forward to this game. How we play will determine if that stuff is true anyway so that’s all we’re worried about.”

(on injuries within the Alabama defense): “We were pretty broken down. We had a lot of guys that were hurt. A lot of people thought we were too broken down and didn’t have a chance of making it here. But on the inside now that we’ve had this break I feel like it’s the best thing that could have ever happened to us. I’m really excited for this upcoming game, just the fact that we had a lot of guys that were hurt and now are coming back.”

Minkah Fitzpatrick | Defensive Back | University of Alabama

(on how much the final play has been on their minds leading up to this game): “I mean, I haven’t been thinking about it, for real. I mean, we lost the game, but we just took lessons from the loss and we applied them. You can’t really think about the last play. You can’t think about what you could have done differently. You just have to worry about how you can prepare differently, what decisions can you make differently throughout the entire process leading up to the game but, thinking about the last play isn’t going to help anything at all.”

(on Kelly Bryant): “I mean, he’s a good quarterback. He’s a big guy. He runs the ball really well, almost like a wild cat every single snap, but he can also throw the ball. He makes smart decisions with the football. He has really good athletes on the outside that he can get the ball to. [He] gets the ball deep to Deon Cain. Gets the ball and fits it into tight windows with Hunter Renfrow. He does a real good job at what he does.”

(on the attention to detail, focus and intensity in practice): “It’s just like any other game. It’s just the next game. Obviously, it’s a high-level game but, you know, everybody’s been doing their job , focusing on what they have to do and that’s really been something we have been focusing on…just doing your assignment, focusing on execution. I think everybody’s been doing a good job at that.”

(on Hunter Renfrow): “He just does the job really well. He’s not going to out-physical you or outrun you. He gets the ball out in space, makes people miss, and he’s a real shifty guy, smaller guy, so it’s hard to tackle him in space. So you know, when he does that, then he also has great receivers around him, so you really just can’t focus on him. So when you have that challenge he proposes, it’s very hard in the secondary, linebackers, to stop a player like him.”

(on having someone special coming to the game to cheer him on): “My family, that’s about it. It’s really cool because they’ve been with me through everything, you know. And having come and watch me play on this stage of the caliber is really cool. They always come to the games to watch me play.”​
Kyle Henderson
Kyle@BamaInsider.com
Transcripts from the Defense (12/29) | BamaInsider.com
 
The SportsLine Projection Model simulated every big bowl game from 10,000 times and came up with exact score and stat projections.
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Sugar Bowl

Alabama vs. Clemson

SportsLine Projection Model's score: Alabama 23, Clemson 16

Vegas line: The Crimson Tide are a three-point favorite (O/U 47)

Projected Statistics: Jalen Hurts throws for 147 yards, while Bo Scarbrough runs for 75 and Damien Harris runs for 74 for Alabama. For Clemson, Kelly Bryant passes for 216 yards.

Link to all projections: Projected Score for Every Major College Football Bowl Game
 
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