🏈 Statistical Analysis and Prediction

[tawalsh3]

I decided to try and figure out a way to calculate the final score of the game using stats available on NCAA.org. I focused on yards per play and how much both Notre Dame and Alabama impacted their opponents as compared to when their opponents played someone other than ND/Bama:

Notre Dame's opponents yards per play against all opponents except ND: 5.76
Notre Dame's opponents yards per play against Notre Dame: 4.55
Difference (i.e., ND's impact): 1.21 yards per play = 21%

Alabama's opponents yards per play against all opponents except Alabama: 6.03
Alabama's opponents yards per play against Alabama: 4.09
Difference (i.e., Alabama's impact): 1.94 yards per play = 32%

I then assumed that ND's offensive output will be 32% less than the season average (421 season average less 32% = 286). And Alabama's offensive output will be 21% less than average (439 season average less 21% = 347).

Finally, I calculated each team's average points per yard. ND had 5056 total yards for 321 points = 0.064 points per yard. Alabama had 5708 total yards for 500 points = 0.088 points per yard.

Thus, my expected score is:
Alabama: 0.088 points per yard * 346 yards = 30.4
Notre Dame: 0.064 points per yard * 286 yards = 18.3

I also ran the analysis just using Top 50 teams as per Jeff Sagarin's Pure Points Predictor. Both ND and Alabama played 7 top 50 teams. ND's average ranking for those 7 teams is 22.6 and Alabama's average ranking for their 7 top 50 teams is 23.1. Basically apples-to-apples. Using this data, the final score is going to be Alabama 24.9 and Notre Dame 15.9.

Conclusions:
- If both teams play their standard game, ND will lose by about 2 TDs
- Turnovers can skew the calculations and result in more points gained with less yards
- ND needs to play its best game of the year to win (or score as a result of Alabama turnovers). Alabama just needs to play an average game to win

 

[planomateo]

Welcome ND fan. Please introduce yourself

 

[tawalsh3]

Just a ND fan and alumni looking to get some conversation started about the game. Not looking to trash talk. I actually LOVE Nick Saban. Notre Dame tried to hire him on multiple occasions and could never get him signed. He runs a program the way I love it... great defense and power rushing offense. Its the style of play that Notre Dame used for decades... its actually the "northern/Big10 style" of football.

 

[BAMA JAMMA]

Welcome to the forum!

 

[planomateo]

Interesting look at the data. I think the biggest question mark I've seen, is the offensive output.

I've talked about some of it here > http://www.rolltidebama.com/forum/s...ompare-Notre-Dame-vs-Alabama-offensive-output

---

Lets look at the Red Zone Offense - both teams do a good job of taking advantages of the red zone, notice that Notre Dame has to rely more heavily on the kicker than we do in the red zone.

Notre Dame = 46% (19 FGs in 46 scores)
Alabama = 19% (10 FGs in 51 scores)


[TABLE="class: cms_table_grid, width: 501"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Gm[/TD]
[TD]Drives[/TD]
[TD]Scores[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Rush TD[/TD]
[TD]Pass TD[/TD]
[TD]FG[/TD]
[TD]Pct[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]317[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]58[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]243[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.79[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Notre Dame
Passing = 69% (9 of 13) of passing TDs are scored within the red zone.
Rushing = 82% (18 of 22) of rushing TDs are scored within the red zone.

Alabama
Passing = 41% (11 of 27) of passing TDs are scored within the red zone.
Rushing = 86% (30 of 35) of rushing TDs are scored within the red zone.

 

[0LDSCH00L]

Man, that is some really heavy numbers and a really fine statistical evaluation, but as we have seen in the rest of the Bowl games involving SEC teams, it always comes down to which team really wants it!

This is going to be a 12 round slugfest with the winner being the one that keeps getting knocked down but has the heart and guts to keep getting back up.

Sure, on paper the winner may look like Alabama, but unless "The Crimson Tide" brings their A+ game and are ready to play their hearts out for 60 minutes they could easily let this one get away from them.

Norte Dame has proven over and over that they can play with and best of the best. That being said this one will go down to the very end and winner being the team that refuses to give up and is just to damn stubborn to give in...

It will be an epic battle of wills!

 

[PhillyGirl]

Welcome to the forum, tawalsh3! :tickled_pink: Nice to meet you.

Interesting look at the numbers. I think Alabama has the edge if they play out, but it will definitely be a close one. Both teams are gonna come into this playing with heart and will. My prediction is 23-17 Alabama, but we shall see. It will certainly be a great game.

Thanks for the stat analysis, and for the evaluation!! I am quite bad with math/numbers, so major props to you :twothumbs:

 

[tawalsh3]

Notre Dame is a finesse running team and that always bogs us down in the redzone. We rely way to heavily on the fade pass the Tyler Eifert (TE).

ND's offensive line is solid, but has no superstars. 4 good players and one week link (Golic, Jr.). Golic kills us in short yardage. He's about 6-2, 285 and gets pushed around a lot on the inside. Golic is pretty good on pulls/traps, but otherwise is a killer. Obviously, if we have one week link on the line that also means we are very thin... the drop-off from #1 OLs to #2 OLs is huge.

 

[tawalsh3]

Talk to me about Bama's wide receivers. I know you guys have one strong player but I don't know about anyone else. I am thinking this is a game that McCarron will win or lose. He's very underrated.... only because of Lacy and Yeldon. And the defense.

 

[0LDSCH00L]

Notre Dame is a finesse running team and that always bogs us down in the redzone. We rely way to heavily on the fade pass the Tyler Eifert (TE).

ND's offensive line is solid, but has no superstars. 4 good players and one week link (Golic, Jr.). Golic kills us in short yardage. He's about 6-2, 285 and gets pushed around a lot on the inside. Golic is pretty good on pulls/traps, but otherwise is a killer. Obviously, if we have one week link on the line that also means we are very thin... the drop-off from #1 OLs to #2 OLs is huge.

You can't measure heart!

 

[TheChief]

I'll let these guys address the receivers, but from what I'm reading Kenny Bell is practicing again.

Welcome to the board. It's by far the best Bama board around with the best posters, all knowledgeable and courteous even when we disagree or someone's a smartass sometimes (mainly me). When these guys post, take it to the bank. They do their best not to wear crimson colored glasses, and it looks like you do the same.

Welcome again.

 

[TerryP]

Talk to me about Bama's wide receivers. I know you guys have one strong player but I don't know about anyone else. I am thinking this is a game that McCarron will win or lose. He's very underrated.... only because of Lacy and Yeldon. And the defense.

I believe we can run in this game. I made a point of watching a handful of the Notre Dame games and made a few comments on it a week or so ago.

I bring that up to say this. If we can run well enough to get one of the safeties to creep up in the box making our offense attack an eight man front THEN is when you will have to worry about the wide receivers and the big plays. They'll get their yards, but I can assure you the thing AJ and the WR's are going to be looking for is single coverage. The best bet for ND, IMO, is to basically stay in a zone.

Now, if it's a soft zone we'll definitely be throwing short passes, but more than likely it won't be to our featured wide outs.

Over the years there's one number I pay attention to in the pre-season—the number of starts on the offensive line. This season was a bit of an anomaly because of the number of starts Tennessee had on their offensive line and they still faltered—albeit a lot of that had to do with a defense appearing to play two hand touch football.

Going into this game our starting five has around 160 games started—and several of these guys have played with each other a long time. If you read the link above, you can see where I'm going with that statement.

I don't doubt the talent and athleticism of the ND front seven. I also have no doubt if they get out of position, even in something as little as some minor technique flaws, it'll end up being a deciding factor.

The scoreboard is an easy barometer to follow. However, the number I'll be keeping my eye on is rushing yards. If we hit the 140-150 mark the chances we come out with a win are extremely high. In fact, games where we've rushed for 140+ yards? The team is 50-0 over the last four/five years.

Then I see where ND has allowed four teams this year to rush for 140 or more yards? Again, I'm sure you see where I'm going here as well.

 

[Irish#1]

Notre Dame is a finesse running team and that always bogs us down in the redzone. We rely way to heavily on the fade pass the Tyler Eifert (TE).

ND's offensive line is solid, but has no superstars. 4 good players and one week link (Golic, Jr.). Golic kills us in short yardage. He's about 6-2, 285 and gets pushed around a lot on the inside. Golic is pretty good on pulls/traps, but otherwise is a killer. Obviously, if we have one week link on the line that also means we are very thin... the drop-off from #1 OLs to #2 OLs is huge.

I will have to disagree with my fellow Irish fan. Go back and watch film. The Irish are most effective running the ball when they run between the tackles. Woods long run against OU and Riddicks 50 yard run against BYU are a couple of examples. LT Zach Martin should have received some All American recognition. He will play on Sundays. LG Watt is solid. C Cave was expected to get AA recognition this year but has underperformed a little this year, due to the fact he's still battling the foot surgery. Agree Golic is the weakest link, but his play the second half of the season was remarkably better than the first half and he now hits the 300lb mark per his dad on the radio the week of the USC game.

 

[planomateo]

I believe we can run in this game. I made a point of watching a handful of the Notre Dame games and made a few comments on it a week or so ago.

I bring that up to say this. If we can run well enough to get one of the safeties to creep up in the box making our offense attack an eight man front THEN is when you will have to worry about the wide receivers and the big plays. They'll get their yards, but I can assure you the thing AJ and the WR's are going to be looking for is single coverage. The best bet for ND, IMO, is to basically stay in a zone.

Now, if it's a soft zone we'll definitely be throwing short passes, but more than likely it won't be to our featured wide outs.

Over the years there's one number I pay attention to in the pre-season—the number of starts on the offensive line. This season was a bit of an anomaly because of the number of starts Tennessee had on their offensive line and they still faltered—albeit a lot of that had to do with a defense appearing to play two hand touch football.

Going into this game our starting five has around 160 games started—and several of these guys have played with each other a long time. If you read the link above, you can see where I'm going with that statement.

I don't doubt the talent and athleticism of the ND front seven. I also have no doubt if they get out of position, even in something as little as some minor technique flaws, it'll end up being a deciding factor.

The scoreboard is an easy barometer to follow. However, the number I'll be keeping my eye on is rushing yards. If we hit the 140-150 mark the chances we come out with a win are extremely high. In fact, games where we've rushed for 140+ yards? The team is 50-0 over the last four/five years.

Then I see where ND has allowed four teams this year to rush for 140 or more yards? Again, I'm sure you see where I'm going here as well.

I'm having to read this a few times to grasp what you are saying

- I'm a cousin who lives in a trailer

 

[TerryP]

I'm having to read this a few times to grasp what you are saying

- I'm a cousin who lives in a trailer

Go play in the street.