🏈 State will beat the spread

[jdpas29]

This state team scares me more than anyone else remaining on the schedule. they play as a team and have a fantastic running back. the QB is tall, rangy and doesn't seem to make a whole lot of errors.

i think they will give alabama the closest game yet

 

[bamaraider]

I think they're a very good team but Alabama will expose them. We might keep it close due to personal mistakes, but by the time the time the game is over, Alabama will have put the game away. Now Tyler Russel is a very good QB, good accuracy, good field for the pocket.... but the pass defense's biggest test was against Tennessee and Cordelle Paterson and we passed with a double A+,... I think we're leading in pass efficiency defensively too...

Their offense doesn't doesn't scare me...what scares me is their secondary.. Remember, last INT McCarron threw was against Miss State...Good pursuit towards the ball, ball hawking safeties.. I didn't see the game UT versus Miss State so I couldn't really tell you how good their defense really is...but from what the scoreboard indicates, UT moved the ball pretty well on them.

 

[TerryP]

There's nothing in your thoughts here that aren't true—of course there's the point no one can you it isn't true you think they'll give us the closest game yet. :smile:

But, there are somethings that are note worthy.

Here's a MSU team that's 3-0 in SEC play against teams that are 0-14 combined in SEC play.

Here's a MSU team whose seven wins have come against teams that are a combined 18-32 on the year with the best record among them coming from a 4-3 Middle Tennessee State team.

Here's a MSU team that traveled to Troy and only won by 6, a MSU team that traveled to UK and won by 19.

Here's a MSU team that no one really knows a thing about because they haven't played anyone—seriously, no successful opponents are anywhere on their schedule to date. In fact, considering only one team is above .500 one could say they've played some poor competition.

24 is a line I won't play. It seems to me it'll be awfully close to a push, a few points off at least.

This team doesn't worry me at all this weekend. Every team we've played this year we've cut what they do on offense by roughly half. Using that as a base should leave MSU with 12-15 points at game end.

They do bring one of the best secondaries in the SEC to BDS Saturday which should draw the game out a little more than usual. But, I still don't see it keeping Bama from scoring less than 33-35.

So, being generous on their end and conservative on ours, a 33-15 type game is what I'll call.

If that comes about it means we just beat the 12th ranked team in the nation by 18—I'll take that.

 

[RollTideinGA]

This game initially worried me until I started digging into the stats. I know stats can lie and I know the emotion of the game can change the outcome. I'm sure the first quarter or maybe the half will be close or at least frustrating because State will come in swinging. They will pull every trick out of their hat. Who hasn't? All they have to do is weather the storm because emotion will only get you so far.

Alabama has faced three offenses that statistically rank better than State. In those games Bama gave up 27 points total (0, 14, 13).

Bama has also faced four defenses that rank higher than State. In those games Bama scored a total of 151 points (41, 35, 33, 42).

I understand the concern, but I think the D is improving weekly and they will be able to do their job. State has not faced a defense ranked higher than 69th (Troy) in which they won by 6. The best offense that State has face statistically was Tennessee which rushed for over 200 yards on them.

For all the grief that Alabama has gotten for it's schedule they have at least played two ranked opponents winning those two games 74-28. Miss State hasn't played any ranked teams yet.

And on a final note compare the only team they both faced:

OFFENSE
Tennessee versus Miss State scored 31 points, had 361 yards of total offense (213 rushing/ 148 passing)
Tennessee versus Alabama scored 13 points, had 282 yards of total offense (79 rushing, 203 passing)

DEFENSE
Tennessee allowed 41 points to State (one TD with seconds to go), 449 yards (141 rush, 308 pass)
Tennessee allowed 44 points to Bama, 539 total yards (233 rushing, 306 passing)

I think Alabama has showed maturity this year in taking what the defense gives them. Let's hope that continues.

 

[Houndstoothpuller]

I also think they'll give us the 'closest game yet', but only the first half.
I don't think State has the horses, but they do have the scheme that can give us fits.
Ball control offensive teams or 'balanced' teams are tougher to defend against, imo.
Pass happy teams like Oregon, SCal, and KState are easily made one-dimensional when facing a defense like Bama's.

UF and to some extent because of defensive prowess, LSU worry me more because they have the manpower to back up their
schemes.

Bama will have to implode on offense, play average defensively, and MSU will need a perfect day to win.

Note: LSU having the week off to stew up a revenge game plan, do we spend some time on them in practice this week?
Film? Where is our focus going to be come Saturday? I'm sure it will be on State, but there is LSU looming.
That's is the one thing worrying me about MSU....LSU.

 

[TerryP]

I also think they'll give us the 'closest game yet', but only the first half.
I don't think State has the horses, but they do have the scheme that can give us fits.
Ball control offensive teams or 'balanced' teams are tougher to defend against, imo.
Pass happy teams like Oregon, SCal, and KState are easily made one-dimensional when facing a defense like Bama's.

UF and to some extent because of defensive prowess, LSU worry me more because they have the manpower to back up their
schemes.

Bama will have to implode on offense, play average defensively, and MSU will need a perfect day to win.

Note: LSU having the week off to stew up a revenge game plan, do we spend some time on them in practice this week?
Film? Where is our focus going to be come Saturday? I'm sure it will be on State, but there is LSU looming.
That's is the one thing worrying me about MSU....LSU.

Without a doubt. No, we won't spend anytime working on LSU this week.

The only time it'll come up is when it's brought up by the media.

Let me change that a tad...we'll work on stopping the run this week. So, in a sense, that'll be working on LSU.

 

[planomateo]

Having Tennessee, Miss State, and LSU back to back all night games is good to - lets the team get comfortable with the schedule of night games.

 

[TerryP]

From Bulldawg247 - Why and How we are going to beat Bama.

The Why

This may come as a surprise to some, but it is actually harder to beat a supposedly "inferior team" at home then it is on the road, especially in front of a home crowd like Alabama. Yes, Bryant Denny Stadium seats north of 100,000 fans, but those fans put just as much pressure on their own boys as they do our boys.

So when Bama starts making mistakes and falls behind you will hear Bama fans boo and then Bama's football team and coaching staff starts pressing and instead of playing loose and with confidence, they start playing tight and lose focus. This is how Auburn came back and beat them when Auburn won the national title with Cam Newton a couple of years ago.

This Mississippi State team will be the most talented, balanced, hardest hitting, fastest, most experienced and motivated football team since that Auburn team Bama faced with Cam Newton. Bama has no clue what state of mind States team is in and has no idea what is going to hit them this Saturday. Just like State looks past teams like Kentucky, MTSU, Troy, USA, and even teams like Vandy, Bama is looking past State and is focusing on LSU for the SEC West title game and looking to play Florida for the SEC Championship game. Bama's players are looking at this game this weekend as simply a stepping stone to get where they already belong...this game this Saturday is a mere task for them...thats human nature to think that and you cannot fight human nature. Bama's players will not be mentally dialed in 100%...States players will be.

The How

I watched the Bama-Tennesse game 3 times. I watched the Bama-tsun game 3 times. Bama beat tsun, but was helped by several tsun mistakes. Bama didnt beat Tennessee as much as Tennessee lost to Bama. Tennessee simply made too many mistakes, and when you make mistaks against Bama, they pounce.

Bama has one bigtime player, Cooper, the wide receiver. Cooper has never faced a db like Johnthan Banks or Darius Slay. If Banks is 100% this Saturday, Banks will take away the freshmans confidence and he will start making mistakes, even may start resorting to offensive pass interference to get separation from Banks to make catches. Banks will bait Cooper and McCarron into thinking Cooper is open...then Banks will pounce on the chance to make a pic or lay Cooper out on the tarmac. And trust and believe, Nickoe Whitley is watering at the mouth to slam into Cooper after he makes a catch...the type of slam and hit that puts players to sleep. After a few hits like that Cooper will get alligator arms.

McCarron is not an athletic quarterback at all. He passes great when his 350 lb offensive linemen give him all day to pass without taking hits, but when State blitzes over and over and start knocking McCarron to the ground you will see a quarterback lose his confidence and starting to make bad decisions...and when that happens he will start throwing pics. Bama will then go back to the running game where they will rely on TJ Yeldon and Lacy. Lacy's spin moves are deadly and the first defender to reach Lacy seldom brings him down or even gets a good grip on him. Yeldon is incredibly strong and also adept and stiff arming or running through the first tackler. But State has seen this before, and with 8 in the box and man coverage on the edge, Bama's running backs are going to catch hell trying to make runs against State.

Bama's linebackers are big and not fast enough or agile enough to keep up with Bumphis, Jameon Lewis, M. Johnson or Marcus Green. Marcus Green is basically a 240 lb wide receiver and no team has been able to match up with him effectively. Green is fast, powerful, and has the hands of Wes Welker. Also, Bama does not have a secondary talented enough to effectively cover Arceto Clark, Chad Bumphis, Marcus Green, Ladarius Perkins, Robert Johnson, Chris Smith, and Brandon Hill and Brandon Heavens.

Bama's offense is not unique or necessarily potent. They line up against you and try to overpower you. They cannot do that against State. When they need passes Bama's O Line gives McCarron all the time he needs to throw the ball to Cooper for the big play. States blitz packages and db coverage of the receivers will not give McCarron clear targets, that means mistakes. Bama's team is opportunitic, you make a mistake, they capitalize.

State can take the top off of Bama's defense with our deep passing threat, that will keep Bama's safeties honest, but exposes Bama to Ladarius Perkins draw and counter plays. State will control the clock and sustain long drives and keep Bama's offense off the field and render Bama unable to get into rhythm...that will result in Bama's offense pressing and taking chances when they do hit the field...and our secondary will make Bama pay.

In summary, why will we beat Bama? Cuz they have NO IDEA what is about to him them this Saturday.

How will we beat Bama? By exposing their weaknesses, taking control of the game, keeping their offense off the field, and neutralizing their one deep threat in Amari Cooper...and by turning Bama's fans against their own team.

This is why and how we are going to beat Bama this Saturday...and you heard it here first!

GOOOOOOOOOO STATE!!

 

[planomateo]

From Bulldawg247 - Why and How we are going to beat Bama.

Bama is looking past State and is focusing on LSU for the SEC West title game and looking to play Florida for the SEC Championship game. Bama's players are looking at this game this weekend as simply a stepping stone to get where they already belong...this game this Saturday is a mere task for them...thats human nature to think that and you cannot fight human nature. Bama's players will not be mentally dialed in 100%...States players will be.

Honestly, does this guy pay attention to anything CNS says in his pressers, ESPN interviews, etc. This comment above is where I stopped reading...

At Alabama, its about executing each play, focusing running each play and beating your opponent on the CURRENT play. We don't put the roof on the house first, we work on the foundation...

This poster is an idiot plain and simple.

 

[TerryP]

It was worth finishing Matt. It got better, or worse depending on your view, as he continued.

You know, I'm sure the players have kept an eye on LSU this season and that game is in the back of their minds. IF they have been doing that I'm sure LSU has done nothing to this point to make the game any more important than it was before the season started.

 

[jdpas29]

the thing that worries me less about LSU is that they are essentially one dimensional.. and the dimension they have is the run. if it were the other way around i would be more concerned as i feel we're weaker against the pass.

LSU can be forced to throw to win and that they won't be able to do IMO.

State is balanced and i think Perkins is amongst the top Rbs in the country

 

[TerryP]

the thing that worries me less about LSU is that they are essentially one dimensional.. and the dimension they have is the run. if it were the other way around i would be more concerned as i feel we're weaker against the pass.

LSU can be forced to throw to win and that they won't be able to do IMO.

State is balanced and i think Perkins is amongst the top Rbs in the country

It's far too soon to think that as I see it.

Sure, he's leading the SEC in YPG. But, it was against the 11th, 12th, and 14th rush defenses in the league.

He's a talented back, no doubt. But, Bell, Ball, Barner, Jamison, Dixon, Taylor...just off the top my are backs I'd take well over Perkins.

 

[252BAMA]

MSU is roughly 7 points better on offense and defense than another recent MSU team. 2010 Michigan State University. That turns 49-7 into 42-14. I say 41-14 Bama because if you aren't picking Bama to kick a couple of FGs then you aren't doing it right.

 

[bamagirl917]

All I will say is that I sincerely hope any Bama fans who boo if the team starts making mistakes will be promptly slapped by the most reasonable individual sitting nearest them.

 

[bamaraider]

From Bulldawg247 - Why and How we are going to beat Bama.

Just wonder how long he typed that until he just busted out laughing

I can smell the delusion coming out of the monitor..."only one big time player"...

I'll give him an A for effort :icon_thumright:

 

[Kirk Van de Graaff]

I think the margin is about right. Yes State is better, yes they are playing at a higher level than last year. 24-7 was last years score, this year will be more the same. I am thinking 42-17 or so. UT was shut down, nothing tells me we cant shut down MSU.

 

[BAMA JAMMA]

I am not sure I'm sold on MSU. Mullen has done a great job and they improve each year. But I haven't watched too much I them to have a good indicator. I know they are balanced and they have a physical SEC caliber defense. They are on a 9 streak run. The only teams we share in common to this point are UT which they recently played. Right now I'm pouring over their drive stats for each game and reading the recaps. I have no doubt in my mind they have had us circled before the season started.

This Bama team looks to have their mind set. I don't see us sleep walking into this game like most homecoming games start off. It will be late and rowdy by kickoff, we will be playing an undefeated 7-0 SEC team, they will come to win but i have to believe we want it more than they do. we are not about to lay down and judging by Sabans presser he isnt going to let them think it. In State's mind they are exactly where they want to be and they have worked hard to reach theirs goals. But I also feel this Bama team is playing more loose yet focused and gelling each game. I see us covering the spread. It may be close for most of the first half but I was more concerned with UT's offense than MSU's. the opposite for their respective defenses.

Saban will have the boys ready. They know this MSU squad has potential for the upset but there is no way we will be looking ahead to LSU.

BTW what the hell is he talking we only have one big time threat?? Obviously ne has been listening to Mel Kiper....

 

[NTT]

I am thinking that guy watched one bama game all year (the Tennessee game). Saying that Cooper is the best player we have? only Bama fans even knew he was 4 weeks ago. This defense is going to stop us?? the same defense that gave up 24 pts and 457 yards offense to the 7th best team in the Sunbelt.

 

[planomateo]

I'm anxious to see how the turnover battle plays out seeing as how Mississippi State is ranked #1 and Alabama is #3 in turnover margin.

[h=3]Bowl Subdivision (FBS) National Team Report
Turnover Margin[/h][TABLE="align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="colspan: 8"]Year: 2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 8"]Thru: 10/20/12 Minimum Pct. of Games Played[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: statstable, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]Rank[/TH]
[TH]Name[/TH]
[TH]Games[/TH]
[TH]Fumgain[/TH]
[TH]Intgain[/TH]
[TH]Gtotal[/TH]
[TH]Fumlost[/TH]
[TH]Intlost[/TH]
[TH]Ltotal[/TH]
[TH]Margin[/TH]
[TH]Wins[/TH]
[TH]Losses[/TH]
[TH]Ties[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Mississippi St.[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2.43[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Ohio[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2.14[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Alabama[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Kent St.[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Louisiana Tech[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Rutgers[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Kansas St.[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1.71[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Oregon St.[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]6[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1.67[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Boise St.[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]1.57[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: crailbg"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg"]Florida[/TD]
[TD="class: crailbg2"]7[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1.57[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Houndstoothpuller]

I would like to add that after watching our cover schemes vs. UT this past week, our cover guys are not only proficient in knowing where to fill in coverage in the defensive backfield, they are also quite sneaky at disguising said coverage schemes.

Most opposing qb's are woefully unprepared to understand, read, and react to a defense as quick and as knowledgeable as Alabama's. Maybe I'm just biased and all too overconfident, but I don't see any qb being rushed with our DLine having the time to be perfect or even get rhythm inside of that hellacious 60 mins they must spend with us.

There will be some success against our defense, but I don't see a team in college football that can dominate our defense enough, dominate our offense enough, cause us to make enough mistakes all in one game to beat us.

If Alabama loses, it'll be an implosion, not external factors like some pesky opposing scheme or trick plays or stripping the ball all day long.
This TEAM is quite good. "Untested" is, in all fairness, a good characterization statistically, but there aren't any convincing strategies that I've heard concerning beating Bama that make any sense at all except beating us at our own game...perfection.
If State can do it, they deserve to win.
They won't.