🏈 SI's Andy Staples: Analyzing 10 years of committee decisions had playoff been in place

[TerryP]

[h=3]2012[/h] Notre Dame
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Michigan (8-4), Stanford (11-2), at Oklahoma (10-2)
Losses: None
Alabama
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: Michigan (8-4)*, at LSU (10-2), Georgia (11-2)
Losses: Texas A&M (10-2)
Florida
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at Texas A&M (10-2), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (10-2), at Florida State (11-2)*
Losses: Georgia (11-2)
Oregon
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Fresno State (9-3)*, Oregon State (9-3)
Losses: Stanford (11-2)
Georgia
Record: 11-2
Quality wins: Florida (11-1)
Losses: South Carolina (10-2), Alabama (12-1)

Stanford
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Oregon (11-1), at UCLA (9-4), UCLA (9-4)
Losses: Washington (7-5), at Notre Dame (12-0)*
Texas A&M
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Louisiana Tech (9-3)*, at Alabama (12-1)
Losses: Florida (11-1), LSU (10-2)

NOTE: * signifies nonconference game


SI's Stewart Mandel and Pete Thamel assembled a mock selection committee made up of actual athletic directors in December to determine who would've made a playoff if it had existed last season. They chose Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida and Oregon -- just as the BCS standings would have. But they didn't make their decision before giving Stanford and Texas A&M serious consideration. This would have been difficult for me. Stanford beat Oregon head-to-head in Eugene and played a more challenging schedule, but Stanford also lost to Washington. (This was before Stanford made the quarterback change that altered the trajectory of its season.) But should Stanford be punished for scheduling Notre Dame while Oregon played Arkansas State, Fresno State and Tennessee Tech out of conference? And if we're considering two-loss teams, shouldn't we consider Texas A&M, which beat one of our playoff teams on the road and narrowly lost to another? And what about Georgia, which beat Florida and nearly beat Alabama? That's what makes this process so difficult. Heck, we're not even considering Louisville, which, unbeknownst to us, is about to throttle one of our no-brainers (Florida) in the Sugar Bowl.

Playoff teams: Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, Georgia
[h=3]2011[/h] LSU
Record: 13-0
Quality wins: Oregon (11-2)*, at West Virginia (9-3)*, at Alabama (11-1), Arkansas (10-2), Georgia (10-3)
Losses: None
Alabama
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at Penn State (9-3)*, Arkansas (10-2)
Losses: LSU (13-0)
Oklahoma State
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at Texas (8-4), Kansas State (10-2), Oklahoma (9-3)
Losses: at Iowa State (6-6)
Stanford
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at USC (10-2), Notre Dame (8-4)*
Losses: Oregon (10-2)
Oregon
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Stanford (11-1)
Losses: LSU (13-0)*, USC (10-2)
Arkansas
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: South Carolina (10-2)
Losses: at Alabama (11-1), at LSU (13-0)
Kansas State
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Baylor (10-3)
Losses: Oklahoma (9-3), at Oklahoma State (11-1)
Boise State
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Georgia (10-3)*
Losses: TCU (10-2)

The BCS standings would have chosen LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State and Stanford. It probably would be tough to find anyone to argue with the first three of those teams. I take issue with Stanford, though. If Oregon plays anyone other than LSU, Alabama or Oklahoma State in its season opener, it probably finishes the season with the same record as Stanford. Unfortunately, Oregon chose LSU. The Tigers, as you can see, assembled one of the best résumés in college football history in 2011. So, essentially, an Oregon team that beat Stanford by three touchdowns at Stanford Stadium is being punished for scheduling the best team in the country. Oregon's other loss came to USC. Guess which team came within a bounce or two of also beating Stanford? USC, which lost in three overtimes. I would have to give the fourth spot to the Ducks.

Playoff teams: LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Oregon
[h=3]2010[/h] Auburn
Record: 13-0
Quality wins: South Carolina (9-4) twice, Arkansas (10-2), LSU (10-2), at Alabama (9-3)
Losses: None
Oregon
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Stanford (11-1), at USC (8-5)
Losses: None
TCU
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Utah (10-2), Air Force (8-4), San Diego State (8-4)
Losses: None
Stanford
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: USC (8-5)
Losses: Oregon (12-0)
Wisconsin
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Ohio State (11-1)
Losses: Michigan State (11-1)
Ohio State
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: No regular-season wins against a team with eight or more regular-season wins
Losses: Wisconsin (11-1)
Michigan State
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Wisconsin (11-1)
Losses: Iowa (7-5)
Oklahoma
Record: 11-2
Quality wins: Florida State (9-4)*, Oklahoma State (10-2), Nebraska (10-3)
Losses: at Missouri (10-2), at Texas A&M (9-3)

The top four in the BCS standings were Auburn, Oregon, TCU and Stanford, and like 2011, the fourth spot is up for grabs. You could make an argument that the third spot should be up for grabs, too, but TCU can thank Utah for being otherwise solid. This is one of those years where a selection committee that doesn't do its real work until December -- and therefore isn't as biased by preseason polls -- will help. TCU (Oregon State), Ohio State (Miami) and Stanford (Notre Dame) attempted to schedule quality out-of-conference games, but the opponents didn't hold up their end of the bargain during the season. The Big Ten was incredibly top-heavy this season. Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin beat up on one another but didn't really beat anyone else good. Meanwhile, Oklahoma wasn't anywhere near the national title conversation, but the Sooners' résumé stacks up pretty favorably with the other teams in the running for the fourth spot. In fact, I'm giving Oklahoma the nod for the final playoff berth based on its number of quality wins. If the Sooners play a directional school instead of Florida State, I'm not convinced.

Playoff teams: Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Oklahoma
[h=3]2009[/h] Alabama
Record: 13-0
Quality wins: Virginia Tech (9-3)*, Ole Miss (8-4), LSU (9-3), Florida (12-1)
Losses: None
Texas
Record: 13-0
Quality wins: Texas Tech (8-4), Missouri (8-4), Oklahoma State (9-3), Nebraska (9-4)
Losses: None
Cincinnati
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Rutgers (8-4), Oregon State (8-4)*, Fresno State (8-4)*, West Virginia (9-3), Pittsburgh (9-3)
Losses: None
TCU
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Clemson (8-4)*, BYU (10-2), Utah (9-3)
Losses: None
Florida
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: at LSU (9-3)
Losses: Alabama (13-0)
Oregon
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Utah (9-3)*, Cal (8-4), USC (8-4), Arizona (8-4), Oregon State (8-4)
Losses: Boise State (13-0)*, Stanford (8-4)
Boise State
Record: 13-0
Quality wins: Oregon (10-2)*, Nevada (8-4)
Losses: None
Ohio State
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Wisconsin (9-3), at Penn State (10-2), Iowa (10-2)
Losses: USC (8-4)*, at Purdue (5-7)

What a mess. Alabama and Texas are easy choices, but the rest of the field is a nightmare to pick from. It's easy now to look back at Florida's demolition of Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl and place the Gators above the Bearcats, but we forget how down the SEC East was in 2009. Florida had exactly one quality win, while Cincinnati beat a host of above-average teams. TCU only beat one AQ-conference team that would win eight or more games, but it was a Clemson team that backed into the ACC Atlantic title. Meanwhile, what about Boise State? The Broncos played in a weak league, but they did open the season by beating the eventual Pac-10 champ. The biggest enigma is Ohio State, which beat Wisconsin, Penn State and the Iowa team that went on to win the Orange Bowl. But the Buckeyes lost at home to a USC team that proved fairly mediocre and a Purdue team that was decidedly mediocre. That latter stinker of a loss eliminates Ohio State. As for the rest, the committee is basically throwing darts at a board.

Playoff teams: Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Florida

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[TerryP]

[h=3]2008[/h] Oklahoma
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: TCU (10-2)*, Cincinnati (11-2)*, Nebraska (8-4), Texas Tech (11-1), Oklahoma State (9-3), Missouri (9-4)
Losses: Texas (11-1)
Florida
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: Georgia (9-3), Florida State (8-4)*, Alabama (12-1)
Losses: Ole Miss (8-4)
Texas
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Oklahoma (12-1), Missouri (9-4), Oklahoma State (9-3)
Losses: Texas Tech (11-1)
Alabama
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: Georgia (9-3), Ole Miss (8-4)
Losses: Florida (12-1)
USC
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Ohio State (10-2)*, Oregon (9-3), Cal (8-4)
Losses: Oregon State (8-4)
Utah
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Air Force (8-4), Oregon State (8-4)*, TCU (10-2), BYU (10-2)
Losses: None
Texas Tech
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Nebraska (8-4), Texas (11-1), Oklahoma State (9-3)
Losses: Oklahoma: (12-1)
Penn State
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Oregon State (8-4)*, Ohio State (10-2), Michigan State (9-3)
Losses: at Iowa (8-4)


This year is another mess. Oklahoma certainly earned its spot with quality nonconference wins against TCU and Cincinnati -- the Sooners also scheduled Washington, but that game landed in the nadir of the Ty Willingham era -- and some tough Big 12 wins, but it's possible to argue convincingly for and against any of the other seven candidates. If taking a loss from a four-loss team doesn't disqualify a squad, then Florida, Penn State and USC each have a case. But USC lost to Oregon State, which was beaten in out-of-conference games by Utah and Penn State. Alabama beat the Ole Miss team that beat Florida, but Florida's fresh-in-the-mind, head-to-head win against the Crimson Tide gives the Gators a boost. (Alabama tried to schedule a tough out-of-conference game this season, but Clemson Clemsoned early and got Tommy Bowden fired.) Remember, we have no idea that Utah spanks Alabama when they play, so how much credence do we give the Utes, who beat Oregon State and a bunch of Mountain West foes? And what of Texas and Texas Tech, who finished in a three-way tie with Oklahoma in the Big 12 South? We also aren't looking at records in a vacuum, so the way teams won matters as well. Except Ole Miss and Alabama, the Gators buzzsawed their opponents. Utah had a few close calls, but the Utes did win every game. So who gets the nod? Oklahoma is a lock. Florida gets one spot. I originally thought Texas and Alabama would be locks, but with the numbers in front of me, neither is. USC, which also won most of its games in dominant fashion, gets one spot thanks primarily to the strength of its win against Ohio State. That leaves Utah, Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech and Penn State battling for one spot. I'd like to think I'd be enlightened and take the Utes, who had the better résumé, but I'd probably get swept up in the competitiveness of the SEC title game and select Alabama.

Playoff teams: Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Alabama
[h=3]2007[/h] Ohio State
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at Penn State (8-4), Wisconsin (9-3), Michigan (8-4)
Losses: Illinois (9-3)
LSU
Record: 11-2
Quality wins: Virginia Tech (11-2)*, Florida (9-3), Auburn (8-4), Tennessee (9-4)
Losses: at Kentucky (7-5), Arkansas (8-4)
Virginia Tech
Record: 11-2
Quality wins: Clemson (9-3), Virginia (9-3), Boston College (10-3)
Losses: at LSU (11-2)*, Boston College (10-3)
Oklahoma
Record: 11-2
Quality wins: at Tulsa (9-4)*, Texas (9-3), Missouri (11-2) twice
Losses: at Colorado (6-6), at Texas Tech (8-4)
Georgia
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Florida (9-3), Auburn (8-4)
Losses: South Carolina (6-6), Tennessee (9-4)
Missouri
Record: 11-2
Quality wins: Illinois (9-3)*, Texas Tech (8-4), Kansas (11-1)
Losses: Oklahoma (11-2) twice
USC
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Oregon State (8-4), Arizona State (10-2)
Losses: Stanford (4-8), Oregon (8-4)
Kansas
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: No regular-season wins against a team with eight or more regular-season wins
Losses: Missouri (11-2)
West Virginia
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Cincinnati (9-3), Connecticut (9-3)
Losses: South Florida (9-3), Pittsburgh (5-7)

This was the year no team wanted to distinguish itself. LSU brought Virginia Tech to Baton Rouge, and that win probably is what vaulted the Tigers over the other two-loss teams when voters chose who would play in the BCS title game. In the playoff, Ohio State and LSU would earn spots. But who else would? USC, Georgia and West Virginia took losses from teams that finished 6-6 or worse. Virginia Tech played LSU and got destroyed, but the Hokies did avenge their regular-season loss to Boston College in the ACC title game. Oklahoma beat Missouri twice, but the Sooners also lost to Colorado. There are no easy decisions for those final two spots.

Playoff teams: Ohio State, LSU, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma

[h=3]2006[/h] Ohio State
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: at Texas (9-3)*, Penn State (8-4), Michigan (11-1)
Losses: None
Florida
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: at Tennessee (9-4), LSU (10-2), Georgia (8-4), Arkansas (10-3)
Losses: at Auburn (10-2)
Michigan
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at Notre Dame (10-2)*, Wisconsin (11-1), at Penn State (8-4)
Losses: at Ohio State (12-0)
LSU
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Tennessee (8-4), at Arkansas (10-2)
Losses: at Auburn (10-2), at Florida (11-1)
USC
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Arkansas (10-2), Nebraska (9-4)*, Cal (9-3), Notre Dame (10-2)*
Losses: at Oregon State (9-4), at UCLA (7-5)
Louisville
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: West Virginia (10-2), South Florida (8-4)
Losses: at Rutgers (10-2)
Wisconsin
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: at Purdue (8-5), Penn State (8-4)
Losses: at Michigan (11-1)
Auburn
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: LSU (10-2), Florida (12-1)
Losses: Arkansas (10-3), Georgia (8-4)
Boise State
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Oregon State (9-4)*, Hawaii (10-3), Nevada (8-4)
Losses: None
Arkansas
Record: 10-3
Quality wins: at Auburn (10-2), Tennessee (9-3)
Losses: USC (10-2)*, at LSU (10-2), Florida (13-1)

This is the opposite of 2007. A ton of teams distinguished themselves. Though all but Ohio State and Boise State took losses, most of those losses came to other very good teams. That's where USC runs into problems. While the Trojans have great nonconference wins against Arkansas, Nebraska and Notre Dame, their losses are the worst of the bunch. Meanwhile, the SEC -- which began its run of BCS titles this season -- had a top-heavy year in which the top teams beat up on one another. This is where no committee can help. We know now that Florida pounds Ohio State when they meet, but looking at the résumés -- Ohio State had a sterling one and Florida hung by the skin of its teeth for most of the season -- it's impossible to make that prediction. Boise State also presents a quandary. The Broncos beat Oregon State and a pretty good Hawaii team, but we don't know then that Boise State is BOISE STATE because that magical Fiesta Bowl hasn't happened yet.

Playoff teams: Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, USC
[h=3]2005[/h] USC
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: at Oregon (10-1), at Notre Dame (9-2)*, Fresno State (8-4)*, UCLA (9-2)
Losses: None
Texas
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: at Ohio State (9-2)*, Texas Tech (9-2)
Losses: None
Penn State
Record: 10-1
Quality wins: Ohio State (9-2), Wisconsin (9-3)
Losses: at Michigan (7-4)
Ohio State
Record: 9-2
Quality wins: No regular-season wins against teams with eight or more regular-season wins
Losses: Texas (12-0)*, Penn State (10-1)
Oregon
Record: 10-1
Quality wins: Fresno State (8-4)*
Losses: USC (12-0)
Notre Dame
Record: 9-2
Quality wins: No regular-season wins against teams with eight or more regular-season wins
Losses: Michigan State (5-6), USC (12-0)
Georgia
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Boise State (9-3)*, LSU (10-2)
Losses: Florida (8-3), Auburn (9-2)

This year is more difficult to judge because it was the last one before the NCAA approved the 12th regular-season game on a permanent basis. I could have lowered the quality-win threshold to seven wins, but it's easier to stay consistent. Not many teams racked up quality wins, making it tough to judge who should get into the playoff beneath Texas and USC.

Playoff teams: USC, Texas, Penn State, Georgia
[h=3]2004[/h] USC
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: Virginia Tech (10-2)*, Cal (10-1), Arizona State (8-3)
Losses: None

Oklahoma
Record: 11-0
Quality wins: Texas (10-1), Kansas State (11-3)
Losses: None
Auburn
Record: 12-0
Quality wins: LSU (9-2), Tennessee (9-3), Georgia (9-2) twice
Losses: None
Texas
Record: 10-1
Quality wins: No regular-season wins against teams with eight or more regular-season wins
Losses: Oklahoma (11-1)
Cal
Record: 10-1
Quality wins: Arizona State (8-3)
Losses: USC (12-0)
Utah
Record: 11-0
Quality wins: No regular-season wins against teams with eight or more regular-season wins
Losses: None
Georgia
Record: 9-2
Quality wins: LSU (9-2)
Losses: Auburn (12-0), Tennessee (9-3)
Tennessee
Record: 9-3
Quality wins: Georgia (9-2)
Losses: Auburn (12-0) twice, Notre Dame (6-5)*

The first three spots are easy to select from this group. USC was a juggernaut. Oklahoma and Auburn were undefeated. So who gets the fourth invite? Is it Cal, which narrowly lost to USC? Is it Texas, which politicked its way into the Rose Bowl ahead of Cal that year? Or is it Utah, which would have entered the playoffs with Urban Meyer already employed by Florida?

Playoff teams: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Cal
[h=3]2003[/h] Oklahoma
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: Fresno State (8-5)*, Texas (10-2), Missouri (8-4), Oklahoma State (9-3)
Losses: Kansas State (11-3)

LSU
Record: 12-1
Quality wins: Georgia (10-3) twice, at Ole Miss (9-3), Arkansas (8-4)
Losses: Florida (8-4)
USC
Record: 11-1
Quality wins: Hawaii (8-5)*, Washington State (9-3)
Losses: at Cal (7-6)
Michigan
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Minnesota (9-3), Purdue (9-3), Michigan State (8-4), Ohio State (10-2)
Losses: at Oregon (8-4)*, at Iowa (9-3)
Ohio State
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Bowling Green (10-3)*, at Minnesota (9-3), Purdue (9-3), Michigan State (8-4)
Losses: at Wisconsin (7-5), at Michigan (10-2)
Texas
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Kansas State (11-3), Nebraska (9-3), at Oklahoma State (9-3)
Losses: Arkansas (8-4)*, Oklahoma (12-1)
Florida State
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Maryland (9-3), at Florida (8-4)*
Losses: Miami (10-2), at Clemson (8-4)
Tennessee
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Florida (8-4), at Miami (10-2)
Losses: Auburn (7-5), Georgia (10-3)
Miami
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: Florida (8-4)*, Florida State (10-2)*, Pittsburgh (8-4)
Losses: at Virginia Tech (8-4), Tennessee (10-2)*
Oklahoma's Big 12 title game loss to Kansas State isn't as big of a deal as it was in the BCS era, but if LSU, Oklahoma and USC all make the playoff, it leaves a glut of 10-2 teams fighting for the final berth. The differences between Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, Florida State, Tennessee and Miami are not glaring, so the choice is really just an educated guess.
Playoff teams: Oklahoma, LSU, USC, Michigan

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...14/playoff-selection-committee/#ixzz2TNlyKzVV
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[TerryP]

Here's where a key issue likes in how the committee makes their decisions.

Look at the 2006 season:

LSU
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Tennessee (8-4), at Arkansas (10-2)
Losses: at Auburn (10-2), at Florida (11-1)

USC
Record: 10-2
Quality wins: at Arkansas (10-2), Nebraska (9-4)*, Cal (9-3), Notre Dame (10-2)*
Losses: at Oregon State (9-4), at UCLA (7-5)

In Staples'/Thamel's "what if" scenario here USC gets the nod over LSU.

It brings up this question. Should losses, especially bad losses like USC's loss to a 7-5 UCLA team, carry more, the same, or equal weight as non-conference schedules.

Would you have put LSU in for 2006 or gone with the four they chose and put the Trojans in the playoff?