I've been trying to not be pessimistic about this but I honestly just do not see Bama getting in. The committee kind of screwed themselves last year because they set the precedent of a non-conference champion getting. That so happened to be a team that then got molly wopped in the semifinals. They also dont want to set the precedent of not having two teams from the same conference getting in, now.
The problem with all of that is there isn't a rule that you have to be a conference champion, nor is there one about not having two teams from the same conference. If you are going to use those two things as criteria or let it bias your vote, then make the shit a rule or do what you're supposed to do. Put the top 4 teams in, we thought this would help with some of the politics of the National Title but honestly it's making it worse, and i think this going to end with a ton of backlash (no matter which way they lean) and we will eventual expand to eight teams and the rest of the Bowl Games dying a very slow and painful death.
Ultimately, I think we will see #1 Clemson, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Georgia and #4 Ohio State. Alabama on the outside looking in and with the risk of having a flat, unmotivated Alabama team tanking yet another BCS/New Year Six Bowl. I'm not trying to be critical with that last comment, it's hard for anyone with hopes of a National Championship, and having lost just one game, watching a 2-loss team (that got blown the hell out in both losses, one against an unranked team) get in ahead of them. It would be very hard to get up for a New Years Bowl Game against UCF or Miami. Honestly, only way I could see one of those bowls motivating Bama is if somehow the Cotton Bowl managed to get an Iron Bowl rematch. I think the Orange Bowl has first pick, though, so its probably going to be Bama vs. Miami. We can take solace in knowing that Ohio State is going to be prison raped by Clemson yet again.