🏈 PJ's Picks - Week 14

[psychojoe]

It is rivalry week. More important, it is crunch time for conference championship playoffs. It is also farewell time for Will Muschamp, and Grady Hoke, the latter not yet official.

First, for feast day.

TCU at Texas

It has been a great season for the Horned Frogs, one that no one that I know of predicted. This has been the season where a Gary Patterson team has actually found an explosive offense to go with their usual stellar defense. At present they are just on the outside of the post season playoff picture, but close enough to see through the window at those now considered 'in'. Meanwhile, we have seen a transformation in the Longhrns fortunes as this season has gone on. The way that things were going, it was doubtful in the early season whether the 'Horns would have enough players left to finish the season. Somewhere along the way, he got through to his players, and the Texas ship has righted itself, even to the point that they are actually tackling on defense, and they find themselves bowl eligible. It would be a nice ending to Charlie Strong's first season at Austin were he to take down the frogs, but the feeling here is that the 'Horns aren't quite ready for prime time.

PJ's Pick: TCU 38 Texas 30

 

[psychojoe]

LSU at Texas A&M

This is a battle of contrasts. LSU has a typical Les Miles defense: physical, athletic, really tough to move the ball on. Offensively, they are only slightly better than Vanderbilt, and have struggled through most of the season to move the ball. By contrast, the Aggies have a high powered, explosive offense, but a defense that would have a tough tome stopping the RollTideBame all stars. My gut feeling on this one is that LSU will be able to get their ground game going and get enough stops on defense to prevail.

With in state teams in the national spotlight on Thanksgiving night, most viewers in Texas will be glued to one game or the other. Me, here in Alabama, I will probably be sleeping off my turkey.


PJ's Pick:

LSU 27 Texas A&M 24

 

[psychojoe]

Arkansas at Missouri

If you can use football games as an excuse for not accompanying your better half on Black Friday shopping expeditions, this will be a good one. Any team that was fortunate enough to defeat Arkansas earlier this year can certainly be thankful that that they don't have to play them now. I said before the season that while I thought that the Hogs would be better, it was still likely that they would not win a conference game, Bielema and company have certainly proved me wrong on the latter aspect, and a tip of the hat to them.

Meanwhile, Missouri has also surprised. After an embarrassing home loss to Indiana, of all people, and then getting rolled by Georgia (again at home), Zou has found a way to win, and is now one victory away from making its second appearance in the SEC CG. We need to pay closer attention to this set of Tigers in prognosticating. A young team that has found itself and is on a late season roll versus a good team playing at home with a lot at stake. Missouri will end the Hogs string of shutouts, as they are much better offensively than LSU or Ole Miss. As Georgia showed, however, their speedy defense is vulnerable to a ppowe running attack.

PJ's Pick: Arkansas 24 Missouri 20

 

[psychojoe]

Stanford at UCLA

UCLA was the pre season favorite to win the PAC 12 South, and after an adventurous season they have reached the point where this is entirely in their own control. Win, and they get a rematch with Oregon in the conference championship game. Stanford, while still a very physical football team, has fallen off offensively from what they had the past two seasons. Stanford is just playing for a better bowl, while the UCLAn is playing for the right to play more football. UCLA has more at stake, and the more complete team.

PJ'S Pick: UCLA 34 Stanford 17

 

[psychojoe]

Arizona State at Arizona

If Stanford can pull off the upset then this rivalry game becomes more important, as the winner would earn the right to play Oregon in the conference championship game. Arizona was most impressive in their blowout win at Utah this past weekend. They are my choice to handle the Sun Devils this weekend.

PJ's Pick: Arizona 38 Arizona State 31

 

[psychojoe]

Tennessee at Vanderbilt

The Vols were not up to beating SEC East Leader Missouri last Saturday at home. They now need to win this one to become bowl eligible, something they have not achieved in several years. The hapless Commodores are just the ticket for them. No offense to speak of and a defense that while decent has been battered by being constantly on the field. I am sure that the Commodore fans are glad that this season is coming to an end. They are probably wondering if they really did have those back to back nine win seasons, or if they were just fantasies that have come crashing back to the reality of a miserable season. The Vols avenge recent frustrations versus the 'Dores.

PJ's Pick: Tennessee 44 Vanderbilt 7

 

[psychojoe]

Georgia Tech at Georgia

This has historically one of the more vicious rivalry games. There is something about UGA that inspires not only Tech, but Florida and Auburn fans to dislike the Dawgs intensely. Tech has turned out to be unexpectedly good this season. There triple option attack is always a handful for those teams that only play against such an attack once a year, and Tech as usual runs it very well. The Yellow Jacket defense has gotten better over the course of the season. Now they step in against one of the "big boys" of the SEC, with a date with FSU looming the following week.

Georgia by all comparisons should be undefeated, but they found ways to lose to the HBC and to almost rescue Will Muschamp's job. Now the need for Arkansas to do them a favor and take down Missouri, or they will miss out on the SEC CG. On paper Georgia has the better team, with better athletes at nearly every position. The downside in playing Tech now is that the defense will have to play assignment football, and the attrition caused by the cut blocking techniques which Tech uses. I like Georgia, with the caveat that if they do not come to play there will be joy on North Avenue.

PJ's Pick: Georgia 31 Georgia Tech 27

 

[psychojoe]

South Carolina at Clemson

Another rivalry game. Before the season both schools expected more. Now both are limping towards the end of the season, bowl eligible, but dinged up and thinking of what might have been. I was very amused watching Mark may and Lou Holtz and hearing Lou talk about improved defense for SC, while Mark kept saying in the background "But Coach, its South Alabama". The Gamecocks arrive at this one with their offense relatively healthy, and their defense - well, it is what it is. The fighting Dabo's will have to wait another year to get a win over the OBC.

PJ's Pick: South Carolina 35 Clemson 27

 

[psychojoe]

Kentucky at Louisville

The Wildcats have gone in reverse since Mike Stoops latest contract extension. They have gone from 5-1 to 5-6, and need a win here. Unlike Tennessee, who also is one win away from post season eligibility, the Cas face a significant foe who is fresh off a win over Notre Dame. 'Ville has shown some mettle in taking FSU late into the game before succumbing. The Wildcats do bear watching in the future, but thir roster, dominated by underclassmen, has run out of steam.

PJ's Pick: Louisville 31 Kentucky 24

 

[psychojoe]

Florida at FSU

I have to admit that the prospect of the Gators taking down the 'Noles would be a very pleasant thought for me. Will Muschamp is a classy guy, and I would like nothing more than to see him end his tenure at Florida end on a high note. The 'Noles are a cocky bunch who firmly believes that they will come up with last minute magic each week to win. They are dismissive of the serious accusations involving their star player. I would love to be able to do an I told you so to a couple of FSU fans that I know.

It could happen. The Gators displayed a power running game many thought they should have had all year when they beat Georgia. A ball control attack would be very useful in keeping Winston and company off the field. The Gator defense is sprinkled with several athletes who will do very well at the next level. It could also turn into a rout, if the Gators produce the special tams failures and offensive turnovers that they did against Missouri and South Carolina. The Noles have not put anyone away lately. They win again, but it will be much closer than anyone expects.

PJ's Pick: FSU 24 Florida 21

 

[psychojoe]

Mississippi State at Ole Miss

The post Treadwell Ole Miss offense bears a striking resemblance to our offense in 2005 after Prothro went down. Arkansas stuffed this offense last weekend. Mississippi State, rejuvenated by seeing that they were still in playoff position, crushed Vanderbilt. As good as the Ole Miss defense is, it is a bit on the smallish side, and not especially deep. The Akbaar offense will have the D on the field a lot, and State's mammoth offensive line will wear them down, State will win, and if 'Bad Bo' shows up they will win by a lot.

PJ's Pick: Mississippi State 33 Ole Miss 10

 

[psychojoe]

Auburn at Alabama

It is finally here. After this week we will hear no more of the "kick 6". The 'Team of Destiny' mantle went away after the Fates humiliated them on their home turf against Texas A&M. Their pride crumbled as they basically surrendered to UGA. They were at least as sluggish against Samford as we were against WCU. Both teams have injuries, but you can be sure that everyone who is able to go will be in there in this one. After all, this game is one of the reasons that you choose to play for Alabama or Auburn.

In Breaking down the game, our offense should be able to move the ball on their defense. Georgia proved that the Boogs run defense was not as good as they thought it was. A&M confirmed that their pass defense was still porous. We get lots of yards and lots of points as long as we stay sound and concentrate on exploiting the areas where we are superior. Their offense has not been as dominant in the running game as it was a year ago, and they have had to put the ball in the air a good bit more. They had some success throwing the ball downfield to Duke Williams and Sammy Coates, but they have also had an increase in interceptions. Our run defense has been very good all season, and with the depth and personnel groups which we have, we should be able to contain their run game. Of course we have to pay minimal attention to all the distractions they cause with motion and formation and play disciplined assignment football. If they are forced into pass first mode we win big time.

I believe that this game is ours to win. We can lose by shooting ourselves in the foot with penalties and turnovers. At home, with so much at stake, our concentration should be at a high level.

PJ's Pick: Alabama 41 Auburn 17

 

[Bamabww]

Amen and Amen. Good job as usual. I enjoy your comments.

 

[alabama mike]

Excellent analysis as always but I hope you are wrong on UF and FSU.

 

[psychojoe]

Excellent analysis as always but I hope you are wrong on UF and FSU.

So do I.