🏈 PJ's Picks-Week 10

[psychojoe]

Another momentous week in the season. For those who were hoping it would bring some clarity to the post season picture, sorry about that. Of all the nineteen teams in the power 5 conferences plus Notre Dame, we began the week with 19 teams with one or fewer losses, and thus in theory still in the hunt, well, we eliminated Minnesota. Meanwhile. LSU showed that although it is likely out of the playoff picture with two losses, it is quite good enough to be a spoiler, especially at home.

Our favorite team, and that same spoiler have this week off. The other twelve SEC teams are in action, with some major conference clashes. Some big national games are on tap as well.

On to this week's picks.

Utah at Arizona State

The Utes are fresh off their last second win over USC, and they trudge along in their quest to win the Pac 12 South. This is a strange division, with five teams being in the class just above mediocrity, and dreadful Colorado composing it. This game will serve as an elimination game for the playoff picture, as the loser will lose whatever tiny chance they had for being in the select four. The Sun Devils are pretty tough at home, and they should prevail in a tight game.

PJ's Pick - Arizona State 27 Utah 24

 

[psychojoe]

FSU at Louisville

This one will give you a reason to watch Thursday night football. Bobby Petreno would like nothing better than to take down the 'Noles and get his name back in the national spotlight. FSU has learned to live in the national spotlight due to the off the field antics of a certain Heisman trophy winner, and they have so far survived being the defending champions and having a bull's eye on their back. FSU has not been as overwhelming as they were a year ago, but they are fortunate enough to play in the ACC. They will keep their poise this week, and take another step towards a playoff spot.

PJ's Pick - FSU 31 Louisville 27

 

[psychojoe]

Arizona at UCLA

Everyone expected big things from UCLA this year, but so far the bruins have disappointed. Meanwhile, Arizona is sitting with a one loss season. The home field isn't what it is for other schools, as UCLA plays in the mammoth Rose Bowl, which is a storied but rarely filled stadium. Still, it is a home field. In yet another PAC 12 battle among near equals, the home team survives.

PJ's Pick- UCLA 28 Arizona 26

 

[psychojoe]

TCU at West Virginia

The Mountaineers have shown surprising versatility, and have turned around the way they do things. They scarcely resemble the HUNH, point a minute outfit of two to three years ago. Instead, they now run the ball fairly well (by Big 12 standards) and are fairly solid on defense. Their two losses have almost certainly taken them out of the national picture, but they do control their own destiny in the Big 12. TCU has also changed its approach. For years Gary Patterson's teams have been noted fo their very tight, extremely well coached defenses. This year they actually have some explosive athletes on offense, though their D is down a bit. Their loss to Baylor means that they don't completely control their fate, but if they do win out, they will certainly be in the national conversation. This is a very interesting game. TCU is favored, largely because of all their offensive power, but West Virginia can score. It just has not chosen the hurry up route because they can play defense as well. I smell an upset. Could that be the smell of burning couches?

PJ's Pick - West Virginia 38 TCU 34

 

[psychojoe]

Old Dominion at Vanderbilt

The Commodores (you can't spell commodore without commode) have gone into the crapper this season. They have been badly overmatched by every SEC opponent. This week they step out into non conference play, and should be able to fond a win. Have they finally found their quarterback? They actually put up two offensive touchdowns versus Missouri. They should get home with their second win Saturday. At least this week it will be anchors down.

PJ's Pick - Vanderbilt 21 Old Dominion 13

 

[psychojoe]

Florida at Georgia

It was as recently as 2012 that this game meant a lot. It is certainly one of the bitterest rivalries in the SEC, but it is going through a spell where one of the teams in the rivalry is not holding up their end of it. Florida's defense is talented, and they have played well. A good word for their offense, however, is inept. (This is a family oriented forum). The Gator offense has a lot of trouble staying on the field sustaining drives. The defense plays hard, but eventually tires. This scenario will play out again on Saturday. Georgia, even without their one time Heisman candidate, has a lot of offensive firepower. Their defense has not been bad versus the run, but has shown some vulnerability against the pass. This vulnerability will not be a factor Saturday against Florida's terrible passing game. I look for Florida's defense to keep them in the game for a while, but at the end of the day one of the most obnoxious cries in college sports, "how 'bout them dawgs" will be heard on the streets of Jacksonville.

The one upside for Gator fans is that the libations at The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will help to dull their pain.

PJ's Pick - Georgia 38 Florida 14

 

[psychojoe]

Arkansas at Mississippi State

Having outscored Kentucky's whippets Saturday, Mullens' dogs now face a different kind of threat. Stodgy Arkansas will just try to [ound on them with their trifecta of running backs and their massive offensive line. The Hogs have improved to the point that no one is looking forward to playing them, though they are still hunting that first SEC win. MSU is still sitting atop the polls, so far handling the unprecedented status of being ranked number one without being flustered. They are too good to lose this one, especially at home. Although Arkansas will move the ball some on the ground, the bulldog's offense will put up more than enough to win.

PJ's Pick - Mississippi State 44 Arkansas 21

 

[psychojoe]

Kentucky at Missouri

Missouri is probably the least impressive 6-2 team in the country. Maty Mauk has not lived up to the lofty expectations so far this season. The defense has been sporadic, the run game inconsistent. Kentucky, meanwhile, has played with a lot of heart this season, without a lot to show for it. They have shown an offense which can be explosive at times, led by young quarterback Patrick Toles, and a bevy of speedy athletes. Kentucky could not keep up with Mississippi State scoring last week. This week, even though it is on the road, the bar is not so high. Missouri won't get by with another lackluster game.

PJ's Pick - Kentucky 41 Missouri 34

 

[psychojoe]

Tennessee at South Carolina

The HBC seemed to be having fun this past week at Auburn, going wide open n offense, taking a lot of gambles. Even though they should have had another shot at the end because of an unnoticed violation against Auburn, you could almost see the gleam in his eyes in the post game comments. If they had gotten into the end zone on their last possession they were going for two and the win, which certainly would have been a memorable one. Meanwhile, Tennessee, amidst the disappointment of an eighth straight loss to Alabama, seems to have found their quarterback in youngster Josh Dobbs. The Vols, having already faced the toughest part of their schedule in Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama, now steps into a November schedule of teams that are more or less on their level: Missouri, Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. They will almost certainly get an SEC win among these, and getting the three wins they need for bowl eligibility is not impossible, though my gut says that will not happen.

The HBC has nothing to lose the rest of the season, and the Gamecocks will bring back the Fun 'n' Gun the rest of the way. It could be a good one.
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PJ's Pick - South Carolina 34 Tennessee 27

 

[psychojoe]

Auburn at Ole Miss

This one is an elimination game. The winner keeps championship playoff hopes alive, while the losers will be all but precluded from the final four, even though these are two excellent football teams. A frustrated Bo Wallace cost Ole Miss their chance to send the LSU game into overtime, then headed to the locker room ahead of his teammates. His mental state for this one is hard to figure. Is "Bad Bo" back?

Auburn brings their high powered running attack to Oxford against the Rebs very stingy defense. Both teams are used to hurry up, so pace does not figure to be a factor. The one mismatch that appears to me is the Ole Miss passing game versus the Auburn secondary. The boogs have been vulnerable here all year. Auburn can negate this by getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback, something they have not done consistently. This game starts Auburn's very difficult path back to the NC game. After this one they face Georgia and Alabama, both on the road, needing all three wins. In a doozy of a game I see the Tigers hope going up in smoke this week.

PJ's Pick: Ole Miss 34 Auburn 31

 

[RollllTide!]

Very interesting picks this week PJ. I think Allbarn might be upsetting Ole Siss because they just can't get over losing to LSU

 

[the Bookie]

A few lines you may want to look at and consider:

Over / Under on Auburn vs Ole Miss opens at 51.
Over / Under on FSU vs 'ville opens at 50.5.
TCU vs West Virginia, period.
Utah vs Arizona State has the public pushing the Sun Devils and the Over...a line to watch through the week.

@psychojoe

FSU, with little run offense, facing 'Ville who has done pretty well with pass defense...?

 

[psychojoe]

If you are considering the over on TCU/WVA, weather for this game is forecast to be in the low forties with rain. TCU's best receiver was injured last week and is doubtful for Saturday.

 

[252BAMA]

Very interesting picks this week PJ. I think Allbarn might be upsetting Ole Siss because they just can't get over losing to LSU

The committee took care of that.

 

[RollllTide!]

The committee took care of that.

????? They gave them a false hope

 

[252BAMA]

If you are considering the over on TCU/WVA, weather for this game is forecast to be in the low forties with rain. TCU's best receiver was injured last week and is doubtful for Saturday.

Good call!