🏈 PJ's Picks for Week Three, 2015 : Games of the week!

[TerryP]

The Latest Lines and PJ's Picks!

 

[the Bookie]

Clemson at Louisville​

PJ's Pick: It is a retooling year for the Cardinals. Last year's defense sent several players to the NFL, and while their front seven is decent, their secondary is almost entirely new from a year ago. On offense the Cards are lead by athletic freshman QB Lamar Jackson, who leads them in rushing but has had mediocre results as a passer, throwing three picks in 47 attempts to only one TD.

Clemson has not been pushed in its first two games, handling Wofford and Appy State with relative ease. Clemson's D was the best in the nation statistically last season, and figures to be quite good again. With a healthy Deshaun Watson at QB, the Tigers are solid offensively as well. Even on the road, the Tigers should, win, as well as cover the 5 point spread.

WK3: Clemson at Louisville

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Clemson -5 : 100/110 ()

Louisville +5 : 100/110 ()

Clemson wins : 100/200 ()

Louisville wins : 170/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Georgia Tech at Notre Dame​

The Rambling Wreck had quite a good season last year, culminated with a comeback win over their hated in state rival, and a victory in the Orange Bowl. Expectations are not quite as high this year, as graduation wiped out the skill position players except for returning QB Justin Thomas. The Jackets also return four OL starters from last year. When you see they return eight starters from last year's defense, you expect them to be bowling again at the end of the season, though maybe not on New Year's day.

The Irish are off to a fast start, with an impressive victory over Texas to start the season, and a costly win at Virginia last Saturday, as starting quarterback Malik Zaire broke his ankle and is done for the season. His replacement, DeShone Kizer, a red shirt freshman, came in to preserve the win. He will have the benefit of first team naps all week, but this is no easy foe to break in against.

This is one of those I probably won't bet on myself. If you must, the Irish are very tough at home, and will likely win and cover the -2. But don't be shocked if Tech unleashes some triple option magic and wins.

Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.

WK3: Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

Outcomes w/Current Odds

GT -2 : 100/110 ()

ND +2 : 100/110 ()

GT wins : 100/130 ()

ND wins : 110/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick : California at Texas
​

In recent years Cal was something of a joke in college football, the victim of blowouts by PAC 12 bullies. But with the arrival of Sonny Dykes and a pass happy offense led by QB Jared Goff, the Bears have become a real offensive force. They actually come into Austin playing the discontented Texas Longhorns,( who managed to defeat hapless Rice last week after being humiliated by Notre Dame) favored by seven points. Cal so far has not played much defense and Texas is yielding 33 points a game so far this season. I see an offensive show, with Cal winning, and probably covering the -7. The over/under has not yet come out, and going for the over could be a really good bet.


WK3: California at Texas

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Cal -7 : 100/110 ()

TX +7 : 100/110 ()

Cal wins : 100/265 ()

TX wins : 225/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Stanford at USC
​

The men of Troy opened their season with two huge blowout wins over lesser opponents, average victory margin 49.5.

Stanford could not find any offense in a 16-6 road loss at Northwestern, but then rebounded last week to trounce rebuilding Central Florida 31-7. On offense Stanford is about as predictable as Wisconsin. I am sure that their game plan will be to run the football, control the clock and keep the high octane USC offense. I am not convinced that they are able to do this, however, at least not enough to affect the outcome. The Trojans win, and they likely cover the 9.5 point spread

WK3: Stanford at USC

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Stanford +9.5 : 100/110 ()

USC -9.5 : 100/110 ()

Stanford wins : 290/100 ()

USC wins : 100/350 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: UConn at Missouri​

Before there is a stampede, UConn is a 22.5 underhusky, not 225. The Bookie was celebrating his big weekend and slipped up when posting this. The Huskies have opened with close wins at home against Villanova and Army, but this one is away from their home kennel. The Tigers, meanwhile, struggled at home before taking down Arkansas State by 7. USC (west) beat the Red Wolves by 50.

Now don't get me wrong, I expect Missouri to win this one, but they haven't given me a reason to think they will cover 22.5 points, (much less 225). The ply here, and it is a decent one, is UConn and the points.

WK3: Connecticut at Missouri (TBD)

New Odds

UCONN +225. : 100/110 ()

New Odds

Mizzou -22.5 : 100/110 ()

New Odds

UCONN wins : 12350/100 ()

New Odds

Mizzou wins : 100/325 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Nevada at Texas A&M​

The Aggies have started the new season on a roll, and the Wolfpack is licking its wounds after being trounced at home by Arizona. The Aggies win easily, and I expect them to cover the spread, even though it is -32.

WK3: Nevada at Texas A&M

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Nevada +32 : 100/110 ()

A&M -32 : 100/110 ()

A&M wins : 100/15000 ()

Nevada wins : 6000/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Auburn at LSU​

The Boogs escaped rather than won their home opener against Jacksonville. During this game several things were exposed: 1) one spring and fall under Muschamp has not fixed their secondary problems; 2) a decent FCS offensive line was able to run block on them to an extent, and the front seven was supposed to be the best part of their defense,; and 3) the Malzahn offense slows down t a crawl when the QB is not a run threat. Jeremy Johnson, highly praised before the season started, has thrown five picks in two games.

It is no secret how LSU will attack them. They will run Fournette behind their outstanding offensive line, be conservative in the passing game and play to a typically good LSU defense. No doubt the corn dogs will be celebrating on into the night after the game is done. I like LSU to win and to cover the seven point spread.

WK3: Auburn at LSU

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Auburn +7 : 100/110 ()

LSU -7 : 100/110 ()

Auburn wins : 230/100 ()

LSU wins : 100/270 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: South Carolina at Georgia​

Georgia disappointed its fan base, and many bettors in our sportsbook, by "only" beating Vanderbilt by 17. Meanwhile, South Carolina has been miserable on offense, and lost its home opener to Kentucky. As is shown in an article in the football forum, over the last ten years the Gamecocks have brought out the worst in Georgia, losing several they should have won, and rarely getting close to covering the spread. I think that this trend continues. I do not see an upset here, but the Dawgs won't cover the 17 point spread.

WK3: South Carolina at Georgia

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UofSC wins : 600/100 ()

UGA wins : 100/900 ()

UofSC +17 : 100/110 ()

UGA -17 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Texas Tech at Arkansas

Unhappy campers in Fayetteville for sure. They took a game which many of us considered a lock and managed to lose to a pretty good mid major opponent. There is unhappiness in Bielema land.

The two schools have one common opponent, the hapless Miners from UTEP, and both schools blew them away. As we k9.5 is a lot to give to a team putting up 60=now, Arkansas likes to hammer away with the running game, while the Red Raiders have a high octane, HUNH passing attack.

I like Arkansas to win here, but 9.5 is a lot of points to give to a team that is putting up 60+ points a game. I recommend taking the Red Raiders and the points, and the money line, where 100 wins you 290, looks pretty good as well.​

WK3: Texas Tech at Arkansas

Outcomes w/Current Odds

TTU +9.5 : 100/110 ()

UArk -9.5 : 100/110 ()

UArk wins : 100/350 ()

TTU wins : 290/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Florida at Kentucky​

Stoops has gotten a nice road conference win under his belt, and the Wildcats nearly brought one off in Gainesville last year. Football optimism is high in Lexington, a rare event indeed.

Florida did well in its opener against Podunk Junction, but did not play well at all in their victory over East Carolina. There was visible discontent by te coaching staff both during and after the game, a sign that maybe their are player issues there other than talent.

You get 3 points if you take UK, and I like them even straight up.

WK3: Florida at Kentucky

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UK wins : 135/100 ()

UF wins : 100/155 ()

UF -3 : 100/110 ()

UK +3 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick: Ole Miss at Alabama​

The loser of this one isn't eliminated from playoff consideration entirely, as we found out last year. However, the loser has any margin for error removed. I can't picture a one loss sec champion being passed over, but with two losses, well there will be too many schools out there with one, or none, for that to happen. It is very possible for the sec champion to have two losses. Enough of this.

The Rebelbear offense has run roughshod over two lightweight opponents so far, in games that only tell us that they don't mind rolling up the score when they can. They do bring many of the same players back from a year ago, including a fully recovered Lequan Treadwell. It is hard to see how Chad Kelly is not an upgrade over Bo Wallace, though Bo played quite well against us last year in Oxford. What impresses me about Ole Miss, though, is its defense. Why is their defense good? In a few words, because they have very good players and a sound scheme. They faded badly the second half of the season a year ago, but most of the important pieces are back. I have not seen anything on the status of Laramie Tunsil, but considering NCAA history on such matters, it will be almost miraculous that he is found eligible just in time and allowed to play this Saturday.

The Tide is healthy for this one, with nothing except the usual bumps and bruises from the first two games. Which quarterback will we see? I expect Coker to start, and to play most of the game as long as things are going well. Will we do anything different on offense? If by different you mean something we have not used yet this year, I fully expect it. We have been pretty vanilla in our play calling so far, and I believe we have a little something saved up for this one. The game should play out much as last year's game did. It will be a very physical, hard nosed game, one decided by mistakes. Special teams will play a big part. We Bama fans are delighted that J K Scott has gotten his groove back as a punter, and we have an edge in punting. Our fear is that this game comes down to field goals, and we have discussed Adam Griffith's struggles in great detail. Our other options would be J K Scott on long field goals, and Gunnar Raborn on the short ones. Who knows how short the leash is if Griffith misfires. The Tide defense has been outstanding so far against the run, and the retooled secondary has not allowed any deep balls to be completed on them. With a weapon like Treadwell you can be sure that Ole Miss will test this. Be of good cheer, Bama fans, our D will pass the test.

In what should be one of the better games of the year, the Tide puts this one in the W column. I would stay away from the spread at -6.5, but under 49 could well be the best play.

WK3: Mississippi at Alabama

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Alabama -6.5 : 100/110 ()

Mississippi +6.5 : 100/110 ()

Mississippi wins : 220/100 ()

Alabama wins : 100/260 ()

Place your wagers here...