🏈 Pete Roussel picks Ole Miss to upset Bama in OT by three.

[TerryP]

Ole Miss at Alabama
Look at the common factors in Nick Saban’s last seven losses. Ole Miss has protected the football, converted 51% of third-down opportunities, scored touchdown on 78% of red zone opportunities, wants to run the ball at least 60% of the time, while Alabama has struggled badly on third-down and didn’t run the ball effectively against Virginia Tech or Colorado State. A year ago, the difference in the game was Ole Miss’ inability to punt the ball effectively, a couple of poor decisions by an inexperienced Bo Wallace, and an ineffective running game that averaged only 2.3 yards per game. This is a better Ole Miss team, while the Crimson Tide is not playing to their usual standard. Hugh Freeze has developed the intangibles to give his team a chance to win on a Saturday night in Bryant-Denny Stadium. I like the Rebels 38-35 in overtime.


Rebels win 38-35

 

[TerryP]

Now that you've had time to chew on that for a second I'm sure most of you, if not all, agree that his reasoning makes sense, right?

OK.

Now, is this opinion a little biased? Perhaps, just perhaps. There are a few things that lead me to think this is more of a fan talking about IF's more so than a breakdown of a game and what will happen.

What things? Hrrmm, let's see.

While Roussel is a native of New Orleans he currently lives in Oxford but that's something I'll just set aside.

Roussel came up through the coaching ranks before he started his search firm. He was on the staff at Ole Miss. BUT, I'll set that aside.

Roussel played with a kid that also grew up in Louisiana and ended up being a good QB in college. That playing time was in high school where he wasn't a QB but caught a few balls in his time. One story that is probably worth noting is he did drop a TD pass during a big game one time...thrown from one Eli Manning. BUT, I'll set that aside.

Is he good with his weekly picks? I don't know. I haven't looked at each week to see how he came out. That said, I see he's got Arkansas putting up 38 on A&M. But, I'll set that aside as...damn, I don't know what to put it under!

 

[TerryP]

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Wow. Ole Miss was hosed on key 4th down early in game. Ruled SHORT in Tuscaloosa, turnover on downs. pic.twitter.com/ftmExO7hq3
— Pete Roussel (@coachingsearch) September 30, 2013​

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@travisreier The rule is, it's forward progress, not where he lands on a tackle. It's just like running to mark and being pushed back.

— Pete Roussel (@coachingsearch) September 30, 2013

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[planomateo]

He's actually defended Alabama (more so Siskey) after the Ole Miss fans (and at least one player) has spoken out about him. Ole Miss had an entire off season to prepare for this, TAMU had a week or two

http://coachingsearch.com/article?a=Explaining-Tyler-Siskeys-role-in-the-Ole-MissAlabama-game

Regardless, Bo Wallace got how many balls knocked down (remind me again he's 6'4"). Rather than focus on Siskey, maybe they should ask why their HC didn't go for FG's when he should have...

 

[TerryP]

Read that as well...was about to link it as well but you beat me to it...

On a related note, from Wallace's comments, they are still convinced it was the right thing to do to go for it on those fourth downs. Seems like a refusal to accept reality when one considers their conversion rate on third and fourth down was just over 25%.

 

[planomateo]

I'm just glad Saban was smart enough to for for the FG's.

 

[TerryP]

Matt, read over the entire exchange and tell me what your impression, your first one, is...

Personally, especially when combined with the point he made no hesitation on continually re-tweeting his upset pick, that he saw this play and immediately jumped on twitter to say, "look, Ole Miss was hosed!" Honestly, I'm having a hard time separating Pete from Neal (except I understand Neal is writing to an audience.)

It's my strong suspicion he had a hard time separating his fandom from his "work responsibility."

 

[planomateo]

My take.

1. Pete's smart enough to realize there is no point in continuing to argue his point. I'd be curious to know what he thinks now post game.
2. Pete's smart enough not to comment on twitter about lack of FG attempts by Freeze - believe he lives in Oxford.
3. Pete's an Ole Miss fan, he emphasized SHORT and indicated the game was in Tuscaloosa (insinuating home cooking).
4. I don't follow him on twitter, but I do like his overall perspective on football, so I'll give him a break on this.
5. I'm kinda shocked nobody has complained louder about having to play 2012 and 2013 games in Tuscaloosa.

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If we go back an look at his prediction (see below), lets see what the real numbers were (I hate the new NCAA stats site...it's horrible)

• Ole Miss was 28% (4/14) on 3rd down conversions vs Alabama - (started at 51% prior to the game, down to 44% after the game)
• Alabama was 47% (8/17) on 3rd down conversions vs Ole Miss
• Ole Miss was 0% (0/2) on red zone attempts, and failed to kick a field goal at the 29 yd line.
• Ole Miss ran the ball 25 times (threw for 32) so 25/57, which means they ran for 44% of the game.
• Bo Wallace made some really really bad throws, taking forever to get rid of the ball and allowing for 8 passes (I think it was 8) to be tipped/knocked down.
• Alabama played closer to their standard.
• Freeze might have intangibles, but not going for points (FG's) is just outright idiotic, something tells me we won't see this happen again.
• I'm shocked he thought Ole Miss would score that many points against Alabama @home.

http://coachingsearch.com/article?a=Pete-Roussels-college-football--week-5-picks

Look at the common factors in Nick Saban’s last seven losses. Ole Miss has protected the football, converted 51% of third-down opportunities, scored touchdown on 78% of red zone opportunities, wants to run the ball at least 60% of the time, while Alabama has struggled badly on third-down and didn’t run the ball effectively against Virginia Tech or Colorado State. A year ago, the difference in the game was Ole Miss’ inability to punt the ball effectively, a couple of poor decisions by an inexperienced Bo Wallace, and an ineffective running game that averaged only 2.3 yards per game. This is a better Ole Miss team, while the Crimson Tide is not playing to their usual standard. Hugh Freeze has developed the intangibles to give his team a chance to win on a Saturday night in Bryant-Denny Stadium. I like the Rebels 38-35 in overtime.

 

[bamaraider]

Sick stats..

 

[JoshB]

How the hell is he a coach (or former coach) and doesn't realize its where the ball is when his body touches down, not when its in the air being flipped?

 

[UAgrad93]

How the hell is he a coach (or former coach) and doesn't realize its where the ball is when his body touches down, not when its in the air being flipped?

He must have been a coach for his son's peewee team! He is definitely a Homer!