🏈 Over/Under - How many rushing yards does Bama have against Michigan?

[TerryP]

<iframe style="display: none;" id="rufous-sandbox" name="uid13458230148901"></iframe>I mentioned a few weeks ago I believed we'd have over 200, but that would be spread among three different backs.

It seems I'm not the only one thinking along those lines.

Ralph D. Russo @ralphDrussoAP <iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html?align=right&button=grey&screen_name=ralphDrussoAP&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
The more I delve into Michigan, the more I think Bama will run for 250 yards. That match-up, Bama O line v UM D line, seems crazy lopsided

23 Aug 12

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Chris Hutson, also known as the Heismanpundit, disagrees:

Ralph D. Russo @ralphDrussoAP 23 Aug 12
The more I delve into Michigan, the more I think Bama will run for 250 yards. That match-up, Bama O line v UM D line, seems crazy lopsided



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Chris Huston @HeismanPundit <iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html?align=right&button=grey&screen_name=HeismanPundit&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
@ralphDrussoAP Bama ran for over 250 yards only three times last year: North Texas, Ga. Southern and Ole Miss. And that was WITH Richardson.

23 Aug 12

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So, Ralph thinks twice and says...

Chris Huston @HeismanPundit 23 Aug 12
@ralphDrussoAP Bama ran for over 250 yards only three times last year: North Texas, Ga. Southern and Ole Miss. And that was WITH Richardson.



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@HeismanPundit OK 200. You get my point though. That matchup looks terrifying if I'm a UM fan.

23 Aug 12

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What say you? Over 200, less than?
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[TerryP]

Just as a FWIW:

Against North Texas:

Trent - 167 yards
Eddie - 161 yards
Jalston - 20 yards
Blake - 13 yards

Georgia Southern:

Trent - 175 yards
Eddie - 45 yards
Jalston - 41 yards

Ole Miss:

Trent - 183 yards
Eddie - 22 yards
Jalston - 125 yards
Blake - 74 yards.

 

[252BAMA]

Over. Way over!

 

[bamaraider]

Over, our gameplan will be to own the T.O.P and keep Denard on the sideline.

 

[psychojoe]

250 rushing, 200 passing.

 

[Bo]

Over 200.

I'm saying in the 260 - 270 range.

 

[planomateo]

tick tock, tick tock... wished the clock would move faster for just one week

 

[musso]

good discussion topic

honestly with Lacy banged up and not having another well-rounded and experienced, proto-typical Saban RB on hand, i am more concerned about this game than i expected to be. with last year's offense, i wouldn't have given this game any worries whatsoever. AJ would only have had to pass it maybe 15-20 times all game with Michigan's defensive front getting all they ever wanted of Richardson, Lacy, and a 4th quarter dose of Fowler.

however, with no Richardson and a banged up Lacy heading into this game, i'm a little less comfortable. i'm fairly confident that we won't reach 200 rushing yards because i think our plan for this game has changed due to Lacy's health. with Michigan's vulnerable defensive front yet explosive offense, i had expected us to deploy a more traditional, ground-based, ball-control offensive strategy for this particular game, despite becoming more air-based for the rest of the season. without Lacy, i see us relying on a short passing game as a supplement for a suspect running game.

i predicted in another thread a final score of Bama 38, Mich 24.

my prediction for total yards goes something like this:

Bama - Rushing: 160, Passing: 250, Total: 410
Mich - Rushing: 125, Passing: 200, Total: 325

 

[jdpas29]

i say we pass so much and score passing so much that running takes a back seat in this one. 185 yds total

 

[TerryP]

honestly with Lacy banged up and not having another well-rounded and experienced, proto-typical Saban RB on hand, i am more concerned about this game than i expected to be. with last year's offense, i wouldn't have given this game any worries whatsoever. AJ would only have had to pass it maybe 15-20 times all game with Michigan's defensive front getting all they ever wanted of Richardson, Lacy, and a 4th quarter dose of Fowler.

however, with no Richardson and a banged up Lacy heading into this game, i'm a little less comfortable. i'm fairly confident that we won't reach 200 rushing yards because i think our plan for this game has changed due to Lacy's health. with Michigan's vulnerable defensive front yet explosive offense, i had expected us to deploy a more traditional, ground-based, ball-control offensive strategy for this particular game, despite becoming more air-based for the rest of the season. without Lacy, i see us relying on a short passing game as a supplement for a suspect running game.

i predicted in another thread a final score of Bama 38, Mich 24.

my prediction for total yards goes something like this:

Bama - Rushing: 160, Passing: 250, Total: 410
Mich - Rushing: 125, Passing: 200, Total: 325

:icon_shaking2:

 

[musso]

:icon_shaking2:

aaaaaand what reaction does that emoticon convey??? :icon_bounce:

 

[JoshB]

:icon_shaking2:

terry disagrees... lol

 

[musso]

oh haha well then, terry, spill the beans for heaven's sake!

 

[UAgrad93]

I'll say we hit them for around 225!

 

[TerryP]

:icon_shaking2:

aaaaaand what reaction does that emoticon convey??? :icon_bounce:

terry disagrees... lol

Yes, and not really. I do disagree, but the emoticon was meant to convey how scrambled my thought process was after reading what was said in the earlier post.

musso— Sure, anything can happen on any given gameday. Now that this is out of the way. :icon_joker:

I believe we'll eclipse the 200 yard mark, but I'd be repeating myself if I go into why, how, etc. I can if you like, but the primary reason I put that emoticon in was what you said Michigan would put up for the day.

"Mich - Rushing: 125, Passing: 200, Total: 325."

I don't understand why you would assume that and more to the point I don't understand how you could come to that conclusion.

Point by point:

UM 200 yards passing- (and I'll use around 200 just to include teams that were close.)

To me, that equates with you thinking our defense this season will be on par with the 2011 unit's fielded by Northwestern, Notre Dame, Iowa, and Purdue to name a few. Those were the only teams UM came close to, or surpassed, the 200 yards passing mark in the 2011 season.

On the flip side, if we take the last 26 games the Tide has played we've had eight teams reach or exceed that mark. Two of those games were against Arkansas and I'm sure you aren't saying UM's passing game is close to what the Razorbacks field.

There have only been three teams who have reached 100 yards rushing and 200 passing against the Tide in the last 26 games; UofSC, LSU, and Auburn in 2010.

Hey, Michigan State put up 219 in the air, but then again ended up with -48 rushing. The other teams that reached that 200 yard mark couldn't move the ball on the ground.

So, in the end, there's roughly a 30% chance it happens.

11 of the 26 have rushed for more than 100 yards on the Tide. Only three of those teams also had 200 yards on the ground; the three in 2010 I mentioned earlier.

We've had five teams reach 300 yards on offense against the Tide in the last 26 games and I'm giving Miss. State a yard just for good measure (299.)

When you put all those numbers together there's only two teams that have accomplished that versus Alabama; LSU and Auburn in 2010.

NOW...

Taking all of that together, can you see why my brain was left scrambled when I read what you thought Michigan was going to do on offense? Sure, it's possible. But, it's far from probable. In fact, saying it's unlikely is being gracious.

---

Oh, then there's the point Eddie was back to full speed yesterday during practice...but, that's getting into our numbers and not theirs.

 

[musso]

I believe we'll eclipse the 200 yard mark, but I'd be repeating myself if I go into why, how, etc. I can if you like...

I would indeed like. Or since you'd be repeating yourself, can you provide a link of your previous posts speaking to this issue?

... the primary reason I put that emoticon in was what you said Michigan would put up for the day.

"Mich - Rushing: 125, Passing: 200, Total: 325."

I don't understand why you would assume that and more to the point I don't understand how you could come to that conclusion.

Point by point:

UM 200 yards passing- (and I'll use around 200 just to include teams that were close.)

To me, that equates with you thinking our defense this season will be on par with the 2011 unit's fielded by Northwestern, Notre Dame, Iowa, and Purdue to name a few. Those were the only teams UM came close to, or surpassed, the 200 yards passing mark in the 2011 season.

On the flip side, if we take the last 26 games the Tide has played we've had eight teams reach or exceed that mark. Two of those games were against Arkansas and I'm sure you aren't saying UM's passing game is close to what the Razorbacks field.

I understand your point, but I'm not equating Michigan's passing game with Arkansas's or our defense with that of NW, ND, Iowa, or Purdue. You're using overly simplistic reasoning. Just because the offenses of Team A and Team B put up similar numbers against a common opponent, that alone doesn't justify any conclusion. You can't use such limited data in a comparison of offenses and defenses. Seriously, you're too smart for that.

There have only been three teams who have reached 100 yards rushing and 200 passing against the Tide in the last 26 games; UofSC, LSU, and Auburn in 2010.

Hey, Michigan State put up 219 in the air, but then again ended up with -48 rushing. The other teams that reached that 200 yard mark couldn't move the ball on the ground.

So, in the end, there's roughly a 30% chance it happens.

11 of the 26 have rushed for more than 100 yards on the Tide. Only three of those teams also had 200 yards on the ground; the three in 2010 I mentioned earlier.

We've had five teams reach 300 yards on offense against the Tide in the last 26 games and I'm giving Miss. State a yard just for good measure (299.)

When you put all those numbers together there's only two teams that have accomplished that versus Alabama; LSU and Auburn in 2010.

NOW...

Taking all of that together, can you see why my brain was left scrambled when I read what you thought Michigan was going to do on offense? Sure, it's possible. But, it's far from probable. In fact, saying it's unlikely is being gracious.

One's prediction doesn't necessarily have to be the most probable. Access to statistics is just a click away, and I admit that the stats may suggest a result contrary to my prediction. But why do people ever pick upsets? Because they think that the impact of statistics is mitigated in a particular match up because of extenuating circumstances. Such is the case for me in this game. I see Michigan converting a few big plays and/or our defense making a few mistakes. I see first-game jitters being a factor. I've listened to a few Hoke interviews and have grown to respect him. They want national respect again, and I see them investing a lot in this game. I see our defense only improving as the season progresses, so if we do surrender significant chunks of yardage to anyone this season, this QB, in Dallas, in the first game, all seem to be reasonable considerations. In the same way that the final score in the VT game in '09 failed to reveal how little success the VT offense actually had against us, I see a similar situation here in that a few big plays by Michigan's offense might skew the final stats/score.

---

Oh, then there's the point Eddie was back to full speed yesterday during practice...but, that's getting into our numbers and not theirs.

Sorry Terry, but Eddie's not going to be completely healthy for Michigan. He may play. He may say he's 100%. Saban may say he's "fine." But it will be game-speak, nothing more.

I'm interested in seeing your prediction for final score including passing/rushing totals.

 

[JoshB]

Sorry Terry, but Eddie's not going to be completely healthy for Michigan. He may play. He may say he's 100%. Saban may say he's "fine." But it will be game-speak, nothing more.

I'm interested in seeing your prediction for final score including passing/rushing totals.

I just have no clue where you get this from, you think hes hurt and hes not going to be as productive. Why? Because some Auburn fans started a rumor about his knee being hurt? He sprained his ankle, the doctor said it was MILD, he was back practicing at the very next practice and back working out with the 1st team the next day after that. He looks healthy and able to cut, etc. in practice. Even the slim chance he is hurt, hes def. going to be able to be very productive on the likely 15 or so carries he will probably get (splitting touches with Yeldon, Fowler, or Hart).

 

[TerryP]

I would indeed like. Or since you'd be repeating yourself, can you provide a link of your previous posts speaking to this issue?

Just out of curiosity, I ran a search using Michigan as the key word and limited to threads I had posted in. There were 54. So no, I'm not going to provide links. Better said, I'm not going to read over 54 different posts.

I will do this. I'll start a thread soon about why I feel we'll have success against Michigan.

I understand your point, but I'm not equating Michigan's passing game with Arkansas's or our defense with that of NW, ND, Iowa, or Purdue. You're using overly simplistic reasoning. Just because the offenses of Team A and Team B put up similar numbers against a common opponent, that alone doesn't justify any conclusion. You can't use such limited data in a comparison of offenses and defenses. Seriously, you're too smart for that.

Limited data? That's an interesting way to characterize my statement. You stated you think Michigan would pass for 200 yards against Alabama. I used two seasons, a total of 26 different games, two teams that were in stark contrast to each other with one having a great amount of success and the other below-par based on four years of play to draw my conclusion leading to the point I was making.

How is that amount of data limited?

If there is anything that might be characterized as limited it would be Michigan's numbers. That's partly due to the point Hoke has only been at the helm for a very limited time. Secondly, it's only taking 13 games—2011— as a barometer. Which brings me full circle. 13 different examples is limited data?

I read simplistic reasoning and see another jewel. I'll leave that alone other than this: How do you come up with those numbers?

For what it's worth, when you take the worst of something and the best of something and draw a mean it's far from simplistic reasoning. One might dare to use the words empirical evidence.

(I did get a smile out of your use of Va. Tech as an example. We've played 39 games since we opened against the Hokies in ATL. And, it dawns on me. If the Bama vs VT game should be taken into consideration, should we not also take the MI vs VT game as well? In was, now that I consider this, the last game MI played...and for goodness sake, don't look at those numbers.)

Sorry Terry, but Eddie's not going to be completely healthy for Michigan. He may play. He may say he's 100%. Saban may say he's "fine." But it will be game-speak, nothing more.

I'm interested in seeing your prediction for final score including passing/rushing totals.

My statement on Eddie had nothing to do with what Eddie has said and it had nothing to do with what Saban has said. I said he was at full speed, not 100% healthy.

That opinion is based on more than one account, first hand accounts, by those who have seen him in practice and the media viewing periods.

As I've said to you before, I find your thoughts on some of our football conversations entertaining despite being "contrarian." Please continue.

 

[musso]

I just have no clue where you get this from ...

i'm a secret agent: alabama trainer by day, blogger by night.

 

[Ump]

TJ is the wow factor.
Bama - Rushing: 220, Passing: 210, Total: 430
Mich - Rushing: 125, Passing: 220, Total: 345