🏈 Over/Under - How many rushing yards does Bama have against Michigan?

[musso]

Just out of curiosity, I ran a search using Michigan as the key word and limited to threads I had posted in. There were 54. So no, I'm not going to provide links. Better said, I'm not going to read over 54 different posts.

I will do this. I'll start a thread soon about why I feel we'll have success against Michigan.

my bad. i haven't yet utilized the tags/search feature on this board.

Limited data? That's an interesting way to characterize my statement. You stated you think Michigan would pass for 200 yards against Alabama. I used two seasons, a total of 26 different games, two teams that were in stark contrast to each other with one having a great amount of success and the other below-par based on four years of play to draw my conclusion leading to the point I was making.

How is that amount of data limited?

If there is anything that might be characterized as limited it would be Michigan's numbers. That's partly due to the point Hoke has only been at the helm for a very limited time. Secondly, it's only taking 13 games—2011— as a barometer. Which brings me full circle. 13 different examples is limited data?

no, you misunderstand. i didn't say the amount of data you provided, in and of itself, was limited. i gladly concede that, in fact, you provided significant data. i was making a different point. i would never even entertain the possibility, as you implied, that our defense was similar to the defenses you listed, nor was i comparing Michigan's offensive potency with that of Arkansas. it's a habit of yours to erect straw man arguments and then take them down with data. there is nothing about my predicted passing/rushing totals that logically force me to also believe that Northwestern's defense is as good as Bama's. that's a ridiculous straw man that i can't believe i'm responding to.

How do you come up with those numbers?

now, this is how you ought to respond to a prediction that confounds you. :wink: too bad though, you must have overlooked the following paragraph in my previous post:

One's prediction doesn't necessarily have to be the most probable. Access to statistics is just a click away, and I admit that the stats may suggest a result contrary to my prediction. But why do people ever pick upsets? Because they think that the impact of statistics is mitigated in a particular match up because of extenuating circumstances. Such is the case for me in this game. I see Michigan converting a few big plays and/or our defense making a few mistakes. I see first-game jitters being a factor. I've listened to a few Hoke interviews and have grown to respect him. They want national respect again, and I see them investing a lot in this game. I see our defense only improving as the season progresses, so if we do surrender significant chunks of yardage to anyone this season, this QB, in Dallas, in the first game, all seem to be reasonable considerations. In the same way that the final score in the VT game in '09 failed to reveal how little success the VT offense actually had against us, I see a similar situation here in that a few big plays by Michigan's offense might skew the final stats/score.

add to this that fact that teams usually make a significant improvement in year two under a new coach. and as i already intimated, first games at neutral sites often produce statistical anomalies just like bowl games.

I said he was at full speed, not 100% healthy.

haha okaaay? then maybe we agree ...?

now, for the second time, i'm asking you to put up your predictions. let's see how valuable all of your data mining will prove to be for this particular match up. can't wait to see whose passing/rushing totals are closer.:nana:

 

[musso]

i predicted in another thread a final score of Bama 38, Mich 24.

my prediction for total yards goes something like this:

Bama - Rushing: 160, Passing: 250, Total: 410
Mich - Rushing: 125, Passing: 200, Total: 325

I don't understand why you would assume that and more to the point I don't understand how you could come to that conclusion.

Point by point:

UM 200 yards passing- (and I'll use around 200 just to include teams that were close.)

To me, that equates with you thinking our defense this season will be on par with the 2011 unit's fielded by Northwestern, Notre Dame, Iowa, and Purdue to name a few. Those were the only teams UM came close to, or surpassed, the 200 yards passing mark in the 2011 season.

On the flip side, if we take the last 26 games the Tide has played we've had eight teams reach or exceed that mark. Two of those games were against Arkansas and I'm sure you aren't saying UM's passing game is close to what the Razorbacks field.

There have only been three teams who have reached 100 yards rushing and 200 passing against the Tide in the last 26 games; UofSC, LSU, and Auburn in 2010.

Hey, Michigan State put up 219 in the air, but then again ended up with -48 rushing. The other teams that reached that 200 yard mark couldn't move the ball on the ground.

So, in the end, there's roughly a 30% chance it happens.

Final Stats
Michigan Passing Yards: 200

In fairness, I made my prediction before knowing Michigan's top running back would be suspended. Had I known that I would have probably put them between 85-100 yds rushing.

I'm beginning to wonder if they'll get over the 200 yard mark for total offense.

Michigan Total Yards: 269

I see Michigan converting a few big plays and/or our defense making a few mistakes… In the same way that the final score in the VT game in '09 failed to reveal how little success the VT offense actually had against us, I see a similar situation here in that a few big plays by Michigan's offense might skew the final stats/score.

Sorry Terry, but Eddie's not going to be completely healthy for Michigan. He may play. He may say he's 100%. Saban may say he's "fine." But it will be game-speak, nothing more.

I just have no clue where you get this from, you think hes hurt and hes not going to be as productive. Why? Because some Auburn fans started a rumor about his knee being hurt? He sprained his ankle, the doctor said it was MILD, he was back practicing at the very next practice and back working out with the 1st team the next day after that. He looks healthy and able to cut, etc. in practice. Even the slim chance he is hurt, hes def. going to be able to be very productive on the likely 15 or so carries he will probably get (splitting touches with Yeldon, Fowler, or Hart).

Alabama Rushing Totals
Yeldon 11 rushes / 111 yds
Fowler 8 rushes / 68 yds
Lacy 9 rushes / 36 yds
Hart 9 rushes / 24 yds