planomateo
Member
Interesting read.
http://t.co/VUS6oWHo
Las Vegas oddsmaker Ed Salmons has been making college football power ratings and point spreads for decades, and is acknowledged as one of the sharpest bookmakers in town by his colleagues.
He believes the 2012 Alabama Crimson Tide is the most powerful team of his career.
“They have the highest (power rating) number I’ve ever had on a team,” said Salmons, a sports book manager and college football specialist at the LVH SuperBook.
Alabama has been favored in 36-straight games and 49 of its last 50. The Crimson Tide were last an underdog to Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship Game.
They are 43-29-1 (59.72 percent) against the spread in Nick Saban’s six seasons and have covered the number in 11 of their last 14 SEC games. Eight of those 29 non-covers came in Saban’s first year and included a 21-14 loss to Louisiana-Monroe as a 24.5-point home favorite.
It’s a remarkable run, and in Vegas’ mind, we’re looking at an all-time dynasty.
That dynasty rolls into Baton Rouge as a sizable favorite against No. 5 LSU in what promises to be a raucous Saturday night environment in Death Valley.
Salmons discussed how much LSU’s home-field advantage is actually worth and the early action on the Alabama-LSU and Oregon-USC games with The Linemakers.
Q: How much is LSU’s home-field worth to the spread?
Salmons: I always chuckle when people say this place or this place is a hard place to play. The only true home-field advantage is if you play in higher altitude.
Q: But still Death Valley at night has to be considered one of the toughest places to play in college football, right?
Salmons: Are you kidding me? If Alabama gets up early, those fans are going to be booing LSU. Death Valley will become Boo Valley.
(Awkward bad joke pause).
Q: So you’re saying that Tiger Stadium is worth just the standard three-point home field advantage?
Salmons: In this game, it’s probably worth less.
Q: You opened at Alabama minus-10, significantly higher than what John Avello did at the Wynn. Avello opened at -7. Why the bigger number?
Salmons: Power rating-wise, the line is definitely above what the number should be. But I can’t get in front of Alabama right now. There are people who try to get in Alabama’s way every week and bet against them. They bet three points against them with Mississippi State, bet them down from 24 to 21. They tried it against Missouri and tried it against Tennessee. And they keep covering.
Q: Where do you think the line will end up at by kickoff?
Salmons: One group took LSU and the plus-10 early, so we moved down to 9.5. I think it’s going to keep coming down and probably end up around 8.5 or 9.5.
Q: In August, you had Alabama-LSU listed as pick ’em. Now, it’s grown nine points. Is that move more representative of LSU being disappointing or Alabama being better than everyone thought?
Salmons: A little of both. Watching LSU play football, they’re just a limited team. They can only play smash-mouth football, no sophistication in their passing game.
For Alabama, it’s been two things. No. 1) The defense lost a crazy amount of NFL talent. The last time that happened, they definitely took a step back. That hasn’t happened this year. No. 2) A.J. McCarron has been great this year and has to be the most under-appreciated quarterback in college football this season.
Q: Which game will generate more betting handle: Oregon at USC or Alabama at LSU?
Salmons: I think Oregon-USC will. I expect it to be a much bigger decision for us. The kids like to bet Oregon, and the 7.5 seems like a lot less in game where there’s going to be twice as many points scored compared to Alabama-LSU.
Q: What do think the Oregon-USC line will end up at?
Salmons: Oregon will probably close at minus-8 or 8.5.
http://t.co/VUS6oWHo
Las Vegas oddsmaker Ed Salmons has been making college football power ratings and point spreads for decades, and is acknowledged as one of the sharpest bookmakers in town by his colleagues.
He believes the 2012 Alabama Crimson Tide is the most powerful team of his career.
“They have the highest (power rating) number I’ve ever had on a team,” said Salmons, a sports book manager and college football specialist at the LVH SuperBook.
Alabama has been favored in 36-straight games and 49 of its last 50. The Crimson Tide were last an underdog to Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship Game.
They are 43-29-1 (59.72 percent) against the spread in Nick Saban’s six seasons and have covered the number in 11 of their last 14 SEC games. Eight of those 29 non-covers came in Saban’s first year and included a 21-14 loss to Louisiana-Monroe as a 24.5-point home favorite.
It’s a remarkable run, and in Vegas’ mind, we’re looking at an all-time dynasty.
That dynasty rolls into Baton Rouge as a sizable favorite against No. 5 LSU in what promises to be a raucous Saturday night environment in Death Valley.
Salmons discussed how much LSU’s home-field advantage is actually worth and the early action on the Alabama-LSU and Oregon-USC games with The Linemakers.
Q: How much is LSU’s home-field worth to the spread?
Salmons: I always chuckle when people say this place or this place is a hard place to play. The only true home-field advantage is if you play in higher altitude.
Q: But still Death Valley at night has to be considered one of the toughest places to play in college football, right?
Salmons: Are you kidding me? If Alabama gets up early, those fans are going to be booing LSU. Death Valley will become Boo Valley.
(Awkward bad joke pause).
Q: So you’re saying that Tiger Stadium is worth just the standard three-point home field advantage?
Salmons: In this game, it’s probably worth less.
Q: You opened at Alabama minus-10, significantly higher than what John Avello did at the Wynn. Avello opened at -7. Why the bigger number?
Salmons: Power rating-wise, the line is definitely above what the number should be. But I can’t get in front of Alabama right now. There are people who try to get in Alabama’s way every week and bet against them. They bet three points against them with Mississippi State, bet them down from 24 to 21. They tried it against Missouri and tried it against Tennessee. And they keep covering.
Q: Where do you think the line will end up at by kickoff?
Salmons: One group took LSU and the plus-10 early, so we moved down to 9.5. I think it’s going to keep coming down and probably end up around 8.5 or 9.5.
Q: In August, you had Alabama-LSU listed as pick ’em. Now, it’s grown nine points. Is that move more representative of LSU being disappointing or Alabama being better than everyone thought?
Salmons: A little of both. Watching LSU play football, they’re just a limited team. They can only play smash-mouth football, no sophistication in their passing game.
For Alabama, it’s been two things. No. 1) The defense lost a crazy amount of NFL talent. The last time that happened, they definitely took a step back. That hasn’t happened this year. No. 2) A.J. McCarron has been great this year and has to be the most under-appreciated quarterback in college football this season.
Q: Which game will generate more betting handle: Oregon at USC or Alabama at LSU?
Salmons: I think Oregon-USC will. I expect it to be a much bigger decision for us. The kids like to bet Oregon, and the 7.5 seems like a lot less in game where there’s going to be twice as many points scored compared to Alabama-LSU.
Q: What do think the Oregon-USC line will end up at?
Salmons: Oregon will probably close at minus-8 or 8.5.
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