Kentucky's offensive line is better than most people outside of Lexington realize. Can Auburn's defensive line hold its own after losing two of last season's standouts to the NFL?
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In a conference-only season, Kentucky is an ideal opening-week opponent for Auburn.
Itās a game Auburn should win. At the same time, the Wildcats are good enough at the line of scrimmage to help the Tigers evaluate their biggest weaknesses.
Before you scoff at the notion that Kentucky can even compete with Auburn, consider that Circa Sports and BetOnline (usually first to market) both opened at Auburn -10 on Sunday. Kentucky has drawn serious money, including from me at +9.5.
The betting line vacillated between Auburn -7 and -7.5 for most of the day Tuesday. ESPNās SP+ ranks Auburn eighth among FBS teams that are currently active and Kentucky 15th, which isnāt a huge gap.
Kentucky is 32-20 overall and 18-18 in the SEC since 2016. The teamās SEC record during that time is seventh-best in the SEC, one game behind Texas A&M.
Coach Mark Stoops has consistently beaten expectations. That includes last season when his team went 10-3 against the spread mostly while starting a receiver at quarterback after losing running back Benny Snell Jr. and linebacker Josh Allen.
Most gave all the credit to Lynn Bowden Jr. But Stoops has turned Kentucky into a bona fide SEC team at the line of scrimmage, where heās stocked his roster with four-star recruits.
Auburn lost defensive tackle Derrick Brown (No. 7 overall) and DE Marlon Davidson (No. 47 overall) to the NFL draft. The Tigers feature a good group of linebackers, but weāll find out a lot about the teamās pass rush and run defense in this first game.
Phil Steele and Pick Six Previews both ranked Kentuckyās offensive line in the top 5 nationally before the season ā rankings that included the Big Ten and Pac-12. Thatās the type of respect that Auburnās defensive line achieved before last season.
Kentucky center Drake Jackson is one of the best in the country. He and left tackle Landon Young (6-foot-7, 321 pounds) are NFL draft prospects.
Phil Steele picked right tackle Darian Kinnard (6-foot-5, 345 pounds) as part of his preseason first-team All-SEC. Athlon Sports and Lindyās Sports selected Luke Fortner as third-team All-SEC.
Running backs A.J. Rose, Christopher Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke are nice players. But they would not have rushed for a combined 1,975 yards on 6.2 yards per carry last season without a great offensive line, even with Bowden making linebackers hesitate.
Things arenāt much different on the other side of the football. Center Nick Brahms is Auburnās only returning starter on the offensive line, and he made five starts last season.
Kentuckyās defensive line canāt match the strength of its offensive line. But two of Kentuckyās three starting defensive linemen earned at least third-team preseason All-SEC honors.
I think Auburnās skill talent is as exciting as it has been in several years. Assuming quarterback Bo Nix can cut down on mistakes and the teamās offensive line isnāt a disaster, the receivers and running backs probably will impress, or even surprise, some people nationally.
The Tigers have a more talented roster than Kentucky and are playing at home. I expect Auburn to win a competitive game.
But Auburnās performance at the line of scrimmage against Kentucky will say a lot about Auburnās betting value in future games against Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M.
I wouldnāt recommend a bet on Kentucky at the current price. But if Auburn gets steamed up to -8.5 or more before kickoff, I like the Wildcats to cover the spread.
