🏀 Looking ahead to Michigan, Friday night at 6:35 on TBS

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[RTB X Bot]

Alabama / Michigan (Chicago)

If you hate the half court defensive wars littered throughout the S16, your reprieve comes early Friday night in the form of these two transition juggernauts

Both squads are Top 6 offenses and rank Top 15 nationally in Average Offensive Possession Length. Both are as dangerous as it gets on the run, but both do it in completely opposite ways. Bama is your NBA-esque pace & space while Michigan is more your Mark Few/Tommy Lloyd attack that sends the first big down the floor immediately under the hoop to force defenses into tough, quick decisions about which shot to take away. And that's not even accounting for the fact of the multiple 60+ foot passes we've seen the Michigan bigs pull off. They might be the best quarterbacks on that campus.

Michigan, like Arizona, is the type of team where you are just nitpicking areas of weaknesses given how complete their rotation is. WHEN they have had problems, it has often come against teams who 1.) force them into the halfcourt 2.) push them away from the rim 3.) heat up the ball 4.) get hot from 3. While Bama is as capable as it comes capable in category 4, they're also either schematically disinterested or physically unable to execute any of the other 3.

In theory, Bama's 3P-heavy (and efficient) offense is the only way to really beat arguably the best 2-way rim unit we have seen in many years, maybe since the Warriors popularized the 5-out spacing that eventually trickled into the college game soon thereafter.

However, we have also seen Bama in 2 separate situations this year playing 2 of the only teams with comparable size to Michigan in Zag & Florida. Tide had the same path. Math ball hopefully beats shot volume. But the Tide allowed 1.24 PPP to Zag and 1.29 to Florida. And here is the terrifying part about both those games. Zag shot 27.3% from 3 and Florida shot 23% (to Bama's 41%). ShotQuality had both of those teams a combined 19 points under expectation...it could have been MUCH worse for Bama.....somehow. That beating (esp in the paint) at the O-Dome may take a decade and 1k+ beers to leave my mind, it was that bad

And Michigan, their SLU 3P performance aside, is by no means a deadeye perimeter shooting group. So the teams that can win a 3P contest (Nebraska who fought them short-handed to the death) are the most dangerous threat. It's just tough for me to feel good about Bama off the bat with that overarching factor, even as someone who frequently backed the Tide this year (to mixed results)

One thing you don't realize given the size of Michigan's frontcourt is that they're susceptible on the defensive glass, especially with the way they want to get out and run in transition. Teams who can pressure the ball and rebound on the offensive end have fared much better in shot volume against the Wolverines than one may think. But Bama possesses as little threat that exists in the shot volume department for any S16 team.

Well, Michigan can turn the ball over frequently. True. Shitty Wake did it. Scrappy TCU did it. But Bama is consistently one of the most passive drop coverage defenses in the country and will not make offenses uncomfortable whatsoever, even if their defense limits Catch & Shoot 3s at an elite level

Bama's path starts and ends with the 3P line. And not just winning the 3P line, but like...finding themselves upwards of 10 to 15%+ on the positive side of the 3P delta in that game. Mathematically, it is not an impossible path, but it sure as hell isn't probable or likely. The Tide are extremely reliant on attempts at the rim or off the catch at the 3P line. Michigan is not only an elite defense in preventing opponents getting to the rim, but then they may be the toughest team to score against at the rim once you get there. So Bama's Shrink-3 offense turns into a whole lot more "3".

I like when people take contrarian stances that you don't hear though the public discourse. My guy
@SteveBoyntonVT
has brought up that Bama without Holloway still has plentyyy of punch from the perimeter while becoming a much longer, better defense & rebounding team. It's only been two games against midmajor-sized teams (Tech w/o Toppin, say a prayer), so while the sample is small, I think there may be some fire where there is smoke in that regard. The Tide's chances of winning certainly depend on it.

Frankly, that's probably Bama's best out in this game other than batshit favorable 3P variance. Bigger lineup at least survives on the glass, trades midrange contested 2's for 3's, plays the math ball, and hopes to have the game within a few possessions late with a chance.

Any time Bama is a big dog, I generally think they have greater ML value than other dogs at the same price given their 3P-heavy shot diet. The Tide at their best is an offense who can hit 40% of 3's at a 50% rate, and the sheer math involved in that means you better slaughter them in shot volume. Michigan can follow Zag & Florida's path, but I actually think it's further from certain than people would believe. As nuts as that sounds.

Wouldn't be surprised if Michigan blew them out. Wouldn't be surprised if Bama did everything they needed to do from the 3P line and lost a close one. Wouldn't be THAT surprised if somehow Bama math balls their way to an upset. The type of elite live betting opportunity you don't need to force something pre-flop without (hopefully) better conviction than me

No issues with anyone wanting an over. I at least understand the argument for an under, although you certainly have bigger stones than me when Bama has given up 95 to Zag and 100 to Florida.

Non-Philon Bama 3P props fully in play with the way Michigan denies the rim at an elite level. Wrightsell, Mallette, and even Sherrell should he avoid foul trouble also have alt equity on their 3P lines if you feel Bama keeps pace in a nuclear 175 total. I would be surprised to see less than 35 3's from the Tide and it's probably 40+ by the time it's all said in done, especially if they play from behind.

All 3 Michigan bigs have similar double-digit rebounding alt equity in the prop market...you'll just need to avoid fouls and run decently on rates. Chances are at least one of the three 2x2 this game. Gut instinct says Morez in this type of matchup that lacks physicality, but you can't count out either of the other 2 to nab 10 themselves.

If Bama does need size, Bol Bowen is getting healthier by the game, can provide them some length (even at the 3 if needed), and gives you the spacing required to math ball Michigan. He's a solid buy low candidate should you see P6, UD, etc. props hung, especially as you're playing towards the matchup of Bama going taller.

The strongest headwind to Sherrel props here are the foul issues that he's been able to avoid in recent games but are neverrrr too overdue to crop up at a moment's notice. If you feel Bama keeps this close, and he avoids fouls, then you need to be on his overs. Otherwise, it's quite a dicey proposition