| FTBL Looking ahead to marquee matchups starting the 2021 season. LSU at UCLA

TerryP

Staff
SEC vs PAC12. The majority are going to take the SEC when we're talking about the "have's" of our conference. Vegas has their opening line LSU -4.

I see a valid question with this game and the matchups. Yes, LSU has recruiting advantage if we look solely on rankings of the classes between the two schools. By that metric we should assume they have a talent advantage on their roster.

However, there's one thing I see missing here. In 2019 UCLA had 87 freshman and sophomores on campus. The vast majority of those players are still on campus.

On the other hand LSU is anticipating 20 of 22 starters to return.

How do you see this one playing out? To me it increasingly appears to be a Chip Kelly versus Ed Orgeron match-up.
 
I look for LSU to handle it about like aTm did out there in 2017. :D Especially if you are correct in that it comes down to Kelly and Orgeron.

1. Alabama 12-0 (8-0)
2. Texas A&M 11-1 (7-1)
3. Mississippi 8-4 (5-3) [1-0]
4. LSU 8-4 (5-3) [0-1] It's why this reads 8-4 instead of 9-3
5. Arkansas 6-6 (3-5) [1-0]
6. Auburn 6-6 (3-5) [0-1]
7. Mississippi State 3-9 (1-7)
 
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LSU will win by two touchdowns or more. UCLA, while returning a veteran quarterback, won't be about to throw on Ricks and Stingley. While LSU has questions at quaterback, Boutte and Emery/Davis-Price will provide matchups UCLA won't contain.

Very cool opening week matchup though. I say two tuddy win for LSU, but who knows what Chip Kelly will pull out of his hat. He had the Bruins finally showing signs of life last year.
 
LSU will win by two touchdowns or more. UCLA, while returning a veteran quarterback, won't be about to throw on Ricks and Stingley. While LSU has questions at quaterback, Boutte and Emery/Davis-Price will provide matchups UCLA won't contain.

Very cool opening week matchup though. I say two tuddy win for LSU, but who knows what Chip Kelly will pull out of his hat. He had the Bruins finally showing signs of life last year.
You realize LSU gave up twice as many yards passing as they did rushing last season? The same thing happened in 2019. That said, UCLA runs one of the most balanced offenses in college football. Their forte' is running the ball.

What do you do with an aggressive defensive line? Run right at 'em.

Now, let's add the "off the field" stuff that continues to grow in Baton Rouge.
 
I believe Big Ed and the Tigers will beat UCLA in a close game. 1st games are always difficult. Ed, team, and the administration did a very poor job of managing success last year. The worst performance every by a defending NC. They didn't know how to act because they haven't been there.

I have Bama, LSU, and A&M at 1 in the West with Ole Miss and the Barn at 4 followed with State and Hogs at 6.

Both Bama and A&M could be in trouble if nether of their starting QB's are special.
 
You realize LSU gave up twice as many yards passing as they did rushing last season? The same thing happened in 2019. That said, UCLA runs one of the most balanced offenses in college football. Their forte' is running the ball.

What do you do with an aggressive defensive line? Run right at 'em.

Now, let's add the "off the field" stuff that continues to grow in Baton Rouge.

Let's take a little more of a historical look at LSU and we'll all see last year was an outlier for them. You're crazy if you don't think their defense will be a little better this year. The two corners I mentioned will be much improved, and Maason Smith will add some stability to their defensive line. UCLA isn't scaring anyone offensively or defensively. A lot in the media even wonder if it's the same Chip Kelly coaching this team from the one that was at Oregon. I'm not taking the same line on LSU I did a couple of years ago, but they will be better than they were last season.
 
Let's take a little more of a historical look at LSU and we'll all see last year was an outlier for them. You're crazy if you don't think their defense will be a little better this year. The two corners I mentioned will be much improved, and Maason Smith will add some stability to their defensive line. UCLA isn't scaring anyone offensively or defensively. A lot in the media even wonder if it's the same Chip Kelly coaching this team from the one that was at Oregon. I'm not taking the same line on LSU I did a couple of years ago, but they will be better than they were last season.
I never suggested their defense wouldn't be better. You're specifically pointing to their corners when that's not how the UCLA offense runs: it's as balanced as they come. I'm referring to scheme and coach versus scheme and coach. There's the imbalance.

And, it's not hard to improve on a 5-5 season.

Historically though? Like when they lost to Wisconsin? Or Troy?

You're right about the outlier but that doesn't fall in 2020. It falls on 2019. Historically they are dropping four games a year on average under Orgeron with a tendency to look like UGA in one or two games: dropping games where they shouldn't.

Orgeron can drink as many Red Bulls has he likes. He can punch himself in the face during pregame warm-ups as much as he likes. It only reaffirms the unstable culture down there.
 
I never suggested their defense wouldn't be better. You're specifically pointing to their corners when that's not how the UCLA offense runs: it's as balanced as they come. I'm referring to scheme and coach versus scheme and coach. There's the imbalance.

And, it's not hard to improve on a 5-5 season.

Historically though? Like when they lost to Wisconsin? Or Troy?

You're right about the outlier but that doesn't fall in 2020. It falls on 2019. Historically they are dropping four games a year on average under Orgeron with a tendency to look like UGA in one or two games: dropping games where they shouldn't.

Orgeron can drink as many Red Bulls has he likes. He can punch himself in the face during pregame warm-ups as much as he likes. It only reaffirms the unstable culture down there.
All HC's need really good DC and OC's to have great success but Big Ed need them more than others.
 
I never suggested their defense wouldn't be better. You're specifically pointing to their corners when that's not how the UCLA offense runs: it's as balanced as they come. I'm referring to scheme and coach versus scheme and coach. There's the imbalance.

And, it's not hard to improve on a 5-5 season.

Historically though? Like when they lost to Wisconsin? Or Troy?

You're right about the outlier but that doesn't fall in 2020. It falls on 2019. Historically they are dropping four games a year on average under Orgeron with a tendency to look like UGA in one or two games: dropping games where they shouldn't.

Orgeron can drink as many Red Bulls has he likes. He can punch himself in the face during pregame warm-ups as much as he likes. It only reaffirms the unstable culture down there.

Who are they losing to on a regular basis though? Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn? Far cry from UCLA. My point about the corners is that UCLA won't be able to air it out, and run support form the outside ought to be improved. Two guys on defense aren't making up for nine others that are lacking, but they are good enough to keep UCLA from scoring 35 points and giving LSU a turnover or two to help. UCLA can be as balanced as they want, but it still won't match up with the athleticism of LSU or make that much of a difference. LSU's quarterback play will determine the outcome. If Brannan, Johnson, or whomever can not turn it over, I find it hard for UCLA to outmuscle LSU. That's why they play the game. We'll see though.
 
Who are they losing to on a regular basis though? Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn?
A team they shouldn't because of their coaching staff. I pointed to that earlier.

UCLA athletes not measuring up to LSU? Wisconsin's wouldn't against UCLA. Neither would Troy. If it's all about athletes, how do you lose a game, at home, against a four win Mississippi State? A five win Mizzou?

Inferior coaching which is where, as mentioned, I see the crux of this game.
 
Kelly should be placing special emphasis on this game and the opener against Hawaii. He is 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) against OOC opponents at UCLA. Four of which were G5. Cincinnati, at Oklahoma, and Fresno State to start the season in 2018. At Cincinnati, San Diego State, and Oklahoma to start off 2019. Having the Hawaii game under the belt should be a plus for the LSU game.

LSU has 9 & 9 returning starters. UCLA has 10 & 10.
 
A team they shouldn't because of their coaching staff. I pointed to that earlier.

UCLA athletes not measuring up to LSU? Wisconsin's wouldn't against UCLA. Neither would Troy. If it's all about athletes, how do you lose a game, at home, against a four win Mississippi State? A five win Mizzou?

Inferior coaching which is where, as mentioned, I see the crux of this game.

Saban lost to Louisiana Monroe and Utah. What's your point?

There are always instances when teams lose a game they shouldn't. Alabama to South Carolina in 2010, Alabama to Auburn a handful of times.

I said what I said and also added, "that's why they play the game". I just have LSU winning by more than you do is all.
 
Saban lost to Louisiana Monroe and Utah. What's your point?
You said look historically. I did. The comparison with a loss to ULM and Utah versus LSU's losses in a developed program? Apples and Oranges.
On average, LSU is losing four games per season and those losses are against teams they shouldn't lose to.

I've mentioned for months there are Tiger programs within the SEC where things are not what they seem. We're seeing that break in the news weekly.

The biggest factor with LSU this fall is if the IARP hands down their decision this summer. Then the question will be "who still has a job?"
 
Alabama was playing with Coffee and Julio in the loss to Utah, plus MANY other high star recruits. Even with your developed program comment, there's zero reason Alabama should lose to Louisiana Monroe, zero with the roster we had that year.

Playing in the toughest division in all of college football doesn't make LSU any worse just because they suffer a few losses here and there. Everyone has. Alabama is the only outlier, and one that happens every 30-40 years in college football. Look at Texas A&M. Spent all that money on a big coach and is nowhere closer than LSU has been. LSU atleast beat Alabama, something Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Arkansas can't say. Auburn lucks out, but can't stop from losing elsewhere to make it count outside of one year with Newton. Even Ole Miss found a way, twice. Which makes my comments even more to the point of apples to apples.

I'm not concerned with any sanctions, because I've yet to see anything really happen in college sports with teams that actually matter to make me think anything is really going to happen or change. I have zero confidence that LSU will pay the price they deserve. LSU may not be what they seem, but they do have a team full of solid athletes that will play better this season than they did last season.

On a total different note, do you want that hat i sent you pictures of? Been waiting on you to let me know.
 
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