For the second consecutive year, the SEC is set to decide on its future scheduling format ā eight or nine games ā at its spring meetings in Destin, Fla. But this time the conference really, really means it: A decision will be made.
Probably.
Maybe.
Weāll see.
The saga continues. SEC athletic directors are meeting early this week in Rosemary Beach, Fla., where the topic is under discussion, with hopes of moving it to a final resolution later this month at the larger meetings in Destin. A situation that has lingered longer than anyone expected may be nearing its exhaustive conclusion.
Talking to several people with ties to the conference who were granted anonymity to speak about the discussion, here is where things stand:
The decision to make
For a year now, the conference has been down to two options: a nine-game conference schedule where every team has three annual opponents and rotates the other 12 teams, or an eight-game schedule where everyone has one annual opponent. No more divisions. No pods.
The conference liked the two options because they result in every team playing everyone else at least twice every four years. This was the direction the SEC was going in even before Oklahoma and Texas joined the conference for 2024; expansion offered the excuse to do it once the two schools came in, rather than argue about what to do with the division setup. So this is set to be the final year of the SEC East and SEC West.
The nine-game schedule appeared to have the momentum heading into Destin last year; it just made more sense to expand the schedule when the conference was expanding, particularly with two programs some SEC schools were already playing. A nine-game schedule also preserved more annual rivalries. For example:
⢠Oklahoma and Texas would be the only annual game on those teamsā schedules in an eight-game setup. But in a nine-game format with three annual opponents, Texas and Texas A&M also would play every year.
⢠The Iron Bowl and the Cocktail Party also would be preserved in an eight-game format, but secondary rivalries ā AlabamaāTennessee and Auburn-Georgia ā would only happen twice every four years. A nine-game format kept those annually.
It made too much sense to go to nine games.
So, what happened?
As everyone met last year, they realized they didnāt have a consensus. Schools such as Kentucky preferred eight-game schedules because they didnāt care about more than one annual rivalry and liked eight-game schedules for competitive and financial reasons. (One fewer nonconference game means one fewer chance to schedule a very winnable home game.)
There were also other uncertainties, such as whether the College Football Playoff would expand, who would pay for canceling nonconference games and whether the SEC would get more money from ESPN. So, a decision was punted to the fall.
Then no decision was made in the fall, even after the CFP field officially was expanded to 12. Then no scheduling decision was made in the winter. The official reason was a lack of agreement among the schools. The unofficial reason was money, principally the ESPN deal.
The finances of it
ESPNās deal with the SEC, which kicks in next year, is estimated to be for about $811 million per year for 10 years. It was signed prior to Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference but is believed to contain a pro rata clause that, in the event of expansion, increases the payment by an amount equal to what each school was set to get: $58 million per year per school would mean the new value of the contract would be about $927 million.
But this is where it gets thorny and where scheduling comes in.
The SEC has made the case to ESPN that this is not just two schools; this is Oklahoma and Texas. The SEC also can argue that by going to a nine-game schedule, it will provide more marquee games. For instance, Texas-Texas A&M every year, rather than twice every four years. Ditto for Alabama-Tennessee, Auburn-Georgia and other games that would be one of three annual games, rather than one in an eight-game format.
But how much more worth it that is to ESPN is unclear. If the network was bowled over by the possibility, a deal would have been announced by now.
So for the SEC schools already disposed to favor eight games, there isnāt a huge financial incentive to change your vote. Letās say ESPN was offering to go over the pro rata amount a bit but not by that much. Kentucky or another school could say: Why vote for an extra conference game, which would mean one fewer home game every other year, when you get $2 to $3 million from home games with a fourth nonconference game? And yes, bowl eligibility ā or just having a more impressive record ā figures into it as well.
Nine-game proponents long have been believed to be in the majority. But SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has preferred more consensus before a decision is made, and if enough money from ESPN isnāt forthcoming, some of the nine-game votes might switch back to eight.
So, what will happen?
Spring meetings begin May 30 in Destin. A decision does not have to be made that week ā theoretically, a schedule could be announced much later ā but at this point, people around the conference appear tired of the topic and just ready to vote.
Thereās still some belief that nine-game proponents will win out. Those tend to be from the more traditional powers: Alabama, Georgia and Florida are in favor, Texas A&M has been vocal in pushing for nine and so on.
But thereās enough pushback from the others, not just Kentucky, that one official in the conference speculated it could end up an 8-8 tie. Then what?
Sankey has been careful not to say what he favors, but many believe heās in the nine-game category, and he could make his case in the room to the holdouts, pleading for the greater good. And thatās why the belief remains that when the next SEC schedule is announced, a 2024 slate including Oklahoma and Texas, itāll be a nine-game schedule.
Probably.
Maybe.
Weāll see.