🏀 Interesting stat on top-two seeds

[252BAMA]

"Alabama is the only team in this year's tournament field to be a top-two seed and reside in the top 10 of the AP poll after entering the season unranked.

None of the 32 teams to fit this profile in the modern tournament era have reached the Final Four, and 56% of them didn't survive the first two rounds. Virginia's first-round loss to 16th-seeded UMBC in 2018 came under these circumstances, as the most memorable example.

Specifically, the struggles of No. 2 seeds in this category are quite alarming, as exactly two-thirds of them (14 of 21) didn't make it out of the first weekend."

March Madness bracket facts for 2021 NCAA tournament

If you are filling out your ESPN Tournament Challenge bracket and want to take history into consideration, we've got a ton of facts and trends to get you excited for March Madness.

www.espn.com

 

[Davestwin]

Add to that the rat poison factor with so many folks predicting great things for Bama. Maybe Saban can give Oats some pointers on how to remedy the intake of the poison! RTR!

 

[TerryP]

@252BAMA because of the uniqueness of the season there a several historical things I find questionable.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

History....is justthat...
The moment is....now

 

[mando]

I tend to believe historical info is a trigger for you to evaluate and try and learn from it. It has occurred for a reason. So what are those and what are you as a program and coaching staff done to mitigate that? Use it to learn but you should not ignore it and just pretend it is not real. I am sure there are multiple factors so it will not be black and white risk to mitigate.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

I tend to believe historical info is a trigger for you to evaluate and try and learn from it. It has occurred for a reason. So what are those and what are you as a program and coaching staff done to mitigate that? Use it to learn but you should not ignore it and just pretend it is not real. I am sure there are multiple factors so it will not be black and white risk to mitigate.

@252BAMA
Those are just random facts What connection is there between now and then.

none! Other than being 2nd seed and why would that have any bearing . No linkage just random occurrence....

for football. No #1 seed hadn't won the playoffs. ( til bama) Does that mean being # 1 seed is a jink? No. Just randomization
So only 15% of #1 teams have won playoffs
Absolutely no linkage between those facts and next year's playoffs

 

[OldPlayer]

While past behavior is a predictor of future behavior, it doesn’t really apply if it wasn’t your past behavior.

 

[rick4bama]

I believe!! In this team!! I hope that Bama has gotten that bad playing out of them!

 

[TerryP]

While past behavior is a predictor of future behavior, it doesn’t really apply if it wasn’t your past behavior.

I'm keeping that one. Nice turn of phrase.

My point earlier about historical trends was more about how this tournament is being held. Some trends I believe will remain true like a double digit seeded team advancing to the Sweet 16.

I believe we'll see more upsets this season and I'll point to their bubble, limited practice and access to practice facilities to simply shoot. I'm sure there are 70 gyms around Indy where a team can practice. I'm not sure the NCAA has the logistical ability to give every team their time. IE: How much practice time would the Zags have for a true West Coast Regional?

 

[SoCalPatrick]

How many times have we seen the 5/12 upset or the 11/6? We'll see that again, bet you.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

And one more thing regarding....#2s
They draw a #7/10 in game 2....
Can be a really good team just in a tough conference

and matchups and officiating..... just factors that exist that affect the game...
But dont have historical occurrence

 

[50+yeartidefan]

While past behavior is a predictor of future behavior, it doesn’t really apply if it wasn’t your past behavior.

not always....has to be some linkage....connecting the events

 

[1CrimsonTider]

has to be some linkage....connecting the events

Here's the "linkage" leading to

"Alabama is the only team in this year's tournament field to be a top-two seed and reside in the top 10 of the AP poll after entering the season unranked.

the events that connect the two.

None of the 32 teams to fit this profile in the modern tournament era have reached the Final Four, and 56% of them didn't survive the first two rounds. Virginia's first-round loss to 16th-seeded UMBC in 2018 came under these circumstances, as the most memorable example.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Here's the "linkage" leading to

the events that connect the two.

random stats

 

[TerryP]

random stats

Over a 35 year period he's citing 32 teams as two seeds. If we were talking only one team per year to be the two seed that was unranked that would be over 90% of the tournaments this has held true.

That's no longer random.

Now do I believe there was one team as a two seed that started out unranked in each of those 32 years? I suspect a few times there were two teams seeded as a number two that started out ranked. Where would that leave us? 80% of the tournaments? It's no longer random.

There have only been 140 two seeds in history. How many of them have been ranked in the top 25 to start the season? You know that is a big number only magnifying these 32 teams.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Over a 35 year period he's citing 32 teams as two seeds. If we were talking only one team per year to be the two seed that was unranked that would be over 90% of the tournaments this has held true.

That's no longer random.

Now do I believe there was one team as a two seed that started out unranked in each of those 32 years? I suspect a few times there were two teams seeded as a number two that started out ranked. Where would that leave us? 80% of the tournaments? It's no longer random.

There have only been 140 two seeds in history. How many of them have been ranked in the top 25 to start the season? You know that is a big number only magnifying these 32 teams.

sure its ironic and interesting....
But there is no linkage between the incidents...
What ties the incidents together...makes you at a disadvantage being such...
Nothing...
Just incidents....
Randomization ( but quality of 7/10 seeds might )
You cant say...OMG ...please no #2 seed....with those other factors noted by @252BAMA .... can go...ummmm...that’s interesting though...

as i said earlier... no CF #1 team has won the CFPs ( til bama)...
But there is no linkage tieing those things together...
it just happened....

See my point? Even if you disagree ( which i am sure you will)...its a fact...

If you want to develop a historical connection... got to be something that ties it together ...

 

[TerryP]

But there is no linkage between the incidents...

See my point? Even if you disagree ( which i am sure you will)...its a fact...

Oh yeah, we're disagreeing. Something that has ended the same way 32 times that's only happened 32 times...tends to fall outside of random. None is an absolute.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Oh yeah, we're disagreeing. Something that has ended the same way 32 times that's only happened 32 times...tends to fall outside of random. None is an absolute.

Ok...agreeing with you...that we are disagreeing....for 32nd time...
No doubt there...lol

 

[mando]

And one more thing regarding....#2s
They draw a #7/10 in game 2....
Can be a really good team just in a tough conference

and matchups and officiating..... just factors that exist that affect the game...
But dont have historical occurrence

Didn't you already create your own linkage? All kinds of possible root causes that the coaches get paid big bucks to understand and resolve.

 

[252BAMA]

Over a 35 year period he's citing 32 teams as two seeds. If we were talking only one team per year to be the two seed that was unranked that would be over 90% of the tournaments this has held true.

That's no longer random.

Now do I believe there was one team as a two seed that started out unranked in each of those 32 years? I suspect a few times there were two teams seeded as a number two that started out ranked. Where would that leave us? 80% of the tournaments? It's no longer random.

There have only been 140 two seeds in history. How many of them have been ranked in the top 25 to start the season? You know that is a big number only magnifying these 32 teams.

It was 32 Top 2 teams and 21 #2 seeds.