🏈 Inside the numbers: Most overrated programs in college football

[TerryP]

If you’re a college football fan, you’ve probably heard this for as long as you can remember and said it a few times too: “That team is overrated.”

Expectations are always a tricky thing, especially when trying to project how well a team of numerous individuals will come together and fare over a season — now potentially 15 games with the College Football Playoff.

Regardless, we decided to put it to the test, and devise a way to find out which programs have been the most overrated, or under-performed the most on a regular basis.

The methodology was simple — compare each year’s preseason and postseason Associated Press polls. The difference equals a point, plus or minus and anything outside of the top 25 doesn’t count toward anything.

The key’s consistency, because it’s just about the hardest thing to come by in the sport, and why Alabama’s current run has been so impressive under Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide have been ranked in the top five of the preseason Associated Press poll eight straight years, and either No. 1 or No. 2 six times.

Only twice during that stretch has Alabama finished outside of the top four in the final poll, and never below No. 10. Should the voters tab Alabama as the team to beat in 2017, it’ll be the 10th straight year Saban’s team was No. 1 at some point of the season.

Alabama is anything but overrated.

However, Notre Dame was last season.

The Fighting Irish were ranked 10th in the preseason, and not in the top 25 at the end of the year. Right behind them were Ole Miss, Michigan State and TCU, while amongst teams that were still ranked Tennessee fell the most from No. 9 to No. 22.

Most overrated team over the last 5 seasons: Georgia

The next four most overrated programs after the Bulldogs were LSU, USC, Arkansas and UCLA.

Most overrated team over the last 10 seasons: Georgia

Following the Bulldogs were Oklahoma, LSU, Nebraska, USC and Texas.

Most overrated team over the last 25 seasons: Nebraska

The next four programs were USC, Oklahoma, Florida State, Texas, Tennessee and Notre Dame

Details at the jump here.

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/insi...ograms-in-college-football?platform=hootsuite

 

[TUSKtimes]

Michigan deserves some attention for the last 10 years. And frankly, to stay out of the 5-year window, Harbaugh needs to win the division sometime soon.

 

[TerryP]

Michigan deserves some attention for the last 10 years.

Based on how Walsh is ranking these teams, Michigan doesn't belong on this list. There's only been a couple, maybe three, seasons where they were ranked in the pre-season polls and fell--a lot.

'07 with their loss to App State. They were in the top five in the preseason poll, after week one they weren't ranked. As I recall, they finished just inside the top 20. They year they played Bama in Dallas had them in the top ten and they finished just inside the top 25.

On the other hand, you'll find a few seasons where they finished higher than they started. Two years ago they started of outside the top 25 and finished just outside the top 10. The year before they played Bama ('11) mirrored '15.

The other years you'll find them pretty close to where they started.

 

[PurlJam]

2012 Notre Dame.... 'nuff said.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Based on how Walsh is ranking these teams, Michigan doesn't belong on this list. There's only been a couple, maybe three, seasons where they were ranked in the pre-season polls and fell--a lot.

I keep forgetting to use the writer's yardstick. Well, certainly explains the Razorbacks remarkable fall from grace the last 5 years. Bielema had me believing.

 

[TerryP]

I keep forgetting to use the writer's yardstick. Well, certainly explains the Razorbacks remarkable fall from grace the last 5 years. Bielema had me believing.

Using his yardstick, and then including what will very likely happen this year, very well may put Michigan on this list. I've seen them ranked in the top ten by several and with the numbers they are replacing I just don't see what they are seeing in their rankings.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Using his yardstick, and then including what will very likely happen this year, very well may put Michigan on this list. I've seen them ranked in the top ten by several and with the numbers they are replacing I just don't see what they are seeing in their rankings.

The spirit of discontent coming out of Ann Arbor, if any, will be natty or bust this program has on it. Mostly it comes from Harbaugh's own words and expectations, but getting 9 million dollars should move the "show me" meter right along come playoff time.

 

[TerryP]

I've got a suspicion he pulls a Pete Carroll, without the rings (and hopefully sanctions though that might make me smirk, a bit.)

 

[BamaFan334]

Texas and Notre Dame are my two most overrated programs in history. Sure, Notre Dame had a run and some history, but they have been getting the benefit for YEARS and have tarnished a decent legacy by nit being close to what they have been handed.

Texas is just pathetic compared to the way their state and fans crow.

 

[JoshB]

Notre Dame, Michigan and Nebraska are EASILY the most overrated programs ever. Miami is right up there too (but thats only been the last 30 years or so).

 

[Bamabww]

I have won a few hundred dollars from Georgia fans over the years with bets placed pre-season on how they would finish. They are one fan base that will always bet with their heart and not their brain.

My picks outside the SEC for always being overrated would include Notre Dame, Texas, and Nebraska.

 

[252BAMA]

Texas and Notre Dame are my two most overrated programs in history. Sure, Notre Dame had a run and some history, but they have been getting the benefit for YEARS and have tarnished a decent legacy by nit being close to what they have been handed.

Texas is just pathetic compared to the way their state and fans crow.

2016 is the perfect example of both. Unranked Texas opens with preseason #10 ND, wins and is ranked #11 in first week poll. Neither should have been ranked in the Top 50 at any time during the season. Texas finishes at 5-7 and ND at 4-8.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

recently....yea....Texas has gone a long time but did win a NC....ND...just media darlings.
Thats all.... Michigan is down in a slump.....so...no....they are one of the great 10 programs....
Overrated...no doubt...UGA....to own a state with top HS program...and accomplish so little....
LSU is same....before NS at LSU.....it was 5s-60s....thats many decades....thats a good HS football state...
Tennessee......wona NC 96 or 98 but...really what else....and theirs had several breaks/miracles during that run....
Florida before Spurrier....Meyer....
...Texas.....cant disagree....they should be....top of top...and ND...but academic gets them...

 

[TerryP]

Notre Dame, Michigan and Nebraska are EASILY the most overrated programs ever.

Two of the top five winningest programs in that group.