I think it will be 10 years before they win a PAC10/12 championship, and only then will they play in a BCS bowl game.
I think they will be a bowl eligible team just about every year.
Teams like Utah/TCU/Boise are all able to play 1-3 games a season against real competition, but when you put them in a full season schedule against BCS teams, we will start to see injuries/fatigue start to take affect on these teams resulting in 3-6 losses per year.