🏈 How do you feel going into Ole Miss? -OR- Why I've been saying, "wait, it's not as bad as it seems"

[TerryP]

•I don't mean how do you feel about Ole Miss.

What is this, the second or third year we've had 14 week regular seasons? Second. I think. It's an important component in 2014 in my view.

The team is coming out of a bye week—a reset, back to basics, couple of days—and headed into SEC play. The big difference this season comes in this 2014 squad having that week to study what they've done—the good, bad, and ugly—and decide "this is who we are, this is what we're going to do."

I've mentioned a few times that we've not seen what kind of offense we'll have this year. No, nothing dramatically different at its core but a different type of attack. It intrigues me this season. I can't follow what he's (Kiffin) thinking a lot of the time but a replay (or day or two, let's be honest) later I can look back and see how he set this player, or situation, up several downs ago.

So, the offense going into Ole Miss? If it came down to it, I believe they can not only stand toe-to-toe but I believe they can stand longer; if this came down to a shoot-out.

It's not the same reset with the defense. A lot of that is due to things outside of the football field; games missed with injuries, etc..

I'm of the opinion we'll give up our sections of yards against some of the defenses we face this season: bending.

I'm also of the opinion we'll be one of the nations best in scoring defense; not breaking.

I look at how we stack up against who we're facing, based on what I've seen so far, and I like what we're putting on the field. (We could use some better luck with injuries.)

 

[TerryP]

OH, and if I may, one "I told you so?" I do realize the group I'm speaking at isn't listening...

Six weeks ago we're talking about the season and hearing a lot of these talking heads mention how difficult some teams' schedules were for 2014. I had no disagreement. However, during these same segments, these same people were talking about other teams and how soft their schedules were for 2014.

IE: Auburn's SEC schedule. How much air time did it get? But, no one mentions what Miss State has to run through? Ole Miss? Any team in the West?

I STILL don't get how someone can look at one team and say "look how tough their schedule is" but look at another team, in the same division, and have a completely different view on the same teams.

</rant>

 

[jdpas29]

i agree that in a shootout, we win saturday.

 

[TheChief]

Who would have thought a few weeks ago this would be a five point spread.

 

[PhillyGirl]

I think it's a close game. My prediction in the other thread was 31-27 us. I definitely agree though, and I think we haven't yet seen the "true face" of the 2014 offense.

 

[riz]

I'm going to be shocked if we're in a shootout with Ole Miss. Shocked. Freeze's offense doesn't strike fear in me.

 

[UAgrad93]

I don't see a shootout. It wouldn't surprise me if this ended at a 20-0 or even a 17-3 score. Ole Miss will be the best D we will face all season. Their offense really doesn't strike fear in me. Their run game is suspect at best. Like @TerryP said, I can see us giving up some yards but NOT breaking and giving up points. Bo Wallace just doesn't impress me AT ALL.

 

[bcracker]

@TheChief Which leads me to ask why the disparity between this year and last year? Last year the spread was 14 points. What's the big difference(s) in this year's teams that leads the odds makers to make it a 5 point spread?

Admittedly, I'm not a gambler, and I'm unfamiliar with process the odds makers use to arrive at spreads.

Is it strictly a home field advantage thing?

 

[TerryP]

@TheChief Which leads me to ask why the disparity between this year and last year? Last year the spread was 14 points. What's the big difference(s) in this year's teams that leads the odds makers to make it a 5 point spread?

Admittedly, I'm not a gambler, and I'm unfamiliar with process the odds makers use to arrive at spreads.

Is it strictly a home field advantage thing?

The process of arriving at spreads is all about getting even money bet on both teams. It just so happens you'll find games where the point spread mirrors the actual point differential. Weird process, but often spot on.

This game opened at -9 back in September. Seeing a four point difference now as compared to then isn't that big of a deal. There's been a three point swing in the Auburn game. Hell, the Clemson game has had a nine point swing since September.

Home field advantage for Ole Miss this season is a point, maybe a point and a half, at this time. Technically, it's +1 because they are scoring more on the road than they are at home. In odds making a team doesn't automatically get three points for playing at home. Some teams carry very little point advantage at home (Bama and LSU carry two of the lowest in the NCAA) and others can carry as much as six to eight points.

Odds makers aren't always setting lines based on what they feel about the teams, those lines are based on what the odds makers feel the betting public feels about the teams.

 

[TheChief]

@TerryP , Thanks so much for the insight. The betting aspect is fascinating.

As a casual observer, my perception is that many, many of the games set by the odds makers end up eerily close to the spread. Could this be some sort of collective intelligence that a group of people have (a feeling if you will) on how a game will actually turn out, hence the line being set in accordance and close to the actual score so people will bet?

Terry, if what you're saying is so (and I'm thinking it is - you're pretty much spot on all the time in this area), how is the line set initially, before the public has a chance to influence the betting line by placing money on the outcomes?

The line on this Bama - Ole Sissy matchup is interesting because of the perceptions that folks have and therefore the point spread. It seems that someone thinks the Tide isn't quite as good as we think.

 

[BamaFan334]

I feel that we are making some decent decisions by playing Tony Brown and getting Rashaan Evans into the game, so I am feeling more confident about our ability to cover and get some pressure on the quarterback. Our run stop defense has always been strong, but our passing defense was what worried me. We're getting stronger and will definitely be tested by LaQuan Treadwell. Also their defense is going to test us more than anyone so far. Our run game hasn't been as fine tuned as I hoped by now, but hopefully the week off helped our line nail down assignements and prepare.

I am taking us in a 34-31 or 35-31 kind of game.

 

[planomateo]

Its all about the sugar money. Get the money bet on each side to be even. The losers pay 10% in addition to what they lost...aka sugar money.

 

[TerryP]

@TheChief I have no doubt that the best sources to be found about anything going on with college football are found in the offices of odds makers. There's no doubt there's expertise there considering how closely the line resembles the score differential. That has to be combined with how fans react to teams.

If we were to go back 10-15 years how often did you see Bama actually cover? The spread was seldom covered. In fact, most of the time it was a good bet to bet against Bama. Now, betting Bama to win on a moneyline? Good money, no doubt.

What is even more uncanny to me is seeing how they can get the O/U numbers so close each week. By bookie will give something like Over 57, Under 53 so he's got a four point cushion built in on a lot of games. Putting a number like 55 out?

 

[Bamabww]

I feel good about our game with Ole Myth. I don't think Bo Wallace can beat us and he's almost all they've got. Their running game is subpar to ours and so is the passing game. He'll make some throws but I'm thinking we'll pick off one or two of them. He'll be pressured and hopefully sacked more than he has all year thus far by our defense. It's gonna be fun.

 

[TerryP]

...

I've mentioned a few times that we've not seen what kind of offense we'll have this year. No, nothing dramatically different at its core but a different type of attack. It intrigues me this season. I can't follow what he's (Kiffin) thinking a lot of the time but a replay (or day or two, let's be honest) later I can look back and see how he set this player, or situation, up several downs ago.

...)

I definitely agree though, and I think we haven't yet seen the "true face" of the 2014 offense.

On "College Football Daily: The Experts" two different panelist referred to this offense as "the new Alabama." Kevin Carter went to the point of saying "if this was the old Alabama who insisted on running the ball Ole Miss could win this game. Against this 'new Alabama?' Not a chance. Bellotti pretty much said the same thing.

I'm seeing people "pigeon-hole" this team based on what they've seen in the past. A few are starting to see here's a new offensive coordinator that is actually bring something new.

I don't see a shootout. It wouldn't surprise me if this ended at a 20-0 or even a 17-3 score. Ole Miss will be the best D we will face all season. Their offense really doesn't strike fear in me. Their run game is suspect at best. Like @TerryP said, I can see us giving up some yards but NOT breaking and giving up points. Bo Wallace just doesn't impress me AT ALL.

I'm with you except for the scores.

We had 11 explosive plays last week. Taking into account the Ole Miss defense could be better let's say we finish Saturday with seven.

Ole Miss, on every scoring drive they've allowed, has given up one of those explosive type plays. It's as if an offense can punch them hard once in a possession, they'll score.

I'm thinking we'll score on at least five possessions, three of which are touchdowns. So, 30 at the least. At the most I can see Ole Miss getting 21, but I'm leaning more towards 13-17. 34-13 type of game...

 

[UAgrad93]

@TerryP I predicted 30-13 I believe on guess the score. I think we could see a lower scoring affair though. Not out of the realm of possibilities.

 

[XXL TideFan]

Been saying Bama by 15...............

 

[alabama mike]

IMO, very humble at that, the game comes down to Bo Wallace and Blake Sims. If Wallace has a good game, he can cause us problems with his arm. I do not think OM will be able to run against our defense. On the flip side, Sims needs to continue to play well. Hopefully, Sims is over his arm injury against UF. If Sims is able to throw the ball, Bama wins this game.

 

[MissingRing]

I think the game will stay close during the first half, but I expect Alabama's depth, conditioning, and superior athleticism to wear Ole Miss down in the 4th quarter. A score like 38-17 is what I'm hoping for.

 

[bamafan4ever]

I think the game will stay close during the first half, but I expect Alabama's depth, conditioning, and superior athleticism to wear Ole Miss down in the 4th quarter. A score like 38-17 is what I'm hoping for.

Along the same lines I was thinking. I think OM plays us well for maybe the 1st 3 quarters and by the 4th, we start pulling away. I worry about their DL and getting pressure on Blake but thankfully, a sore shoulder shouldn't hurt his scrambling ability. I worry the pressure may cause some poor throws just by nature of these type games and crowd noise. I think our RB's have a better showing than most expect. We wear 'em down in the 4th.