WHEN ALABAMA RUNS
Here's what we know:
T.J. Yeldon isn't 100 percent but he's anticipated to play. On multiple occasions throughout the week, Alabama coach
Nick Saban has lamented the importance of practice and how it directly affects a player's performance in a game. Yeldon was limited in practice heading into the LSU game but still carried the ball 15 times. That said, enough hints have been provided to think sophomore
Derrick Henry could receive his most extensive action of the season. Henry is seemingly at his best when a defense is reeling. A good example came Saturday at LSU, when Henry followed
Brandon Greene's 24-yard catch with an 8-yard run, his longest of the game. In the second half against Tennessee, Henry bruised his way to a number of first downs on one of his busiest nights of the season. The Bulldogs are deep in their front seven and acknowledge that their No. 1 goal as a defense is to stop the run. Mississippi State ranks third in the SEC in run defense, but it's surrendered more than its average (126 per game) in four of the past five games.
EDGE: Alabama
WHEN MISSISSIPPI STATE RUNS
Mississippi State's one-two punch of running back
Josh Robinson and quarterback
Dak Prescott has been tough for everyone except Arkansas to stop. Outside of the Arkansas game, in which it ran for 128 yards on 35 carries, Mississippi State has cleared 200 rushing yards. Prescott's running, in particular, should be viewed as the main concern for an Alabama defense that has been vulnerable against quarterbacks who can take advantage when running lanes open. Prescott not only does what
Josh Dobbs and
Anthony Jennings were able to do against the Alabama defense, but he also picks up yards by the bundle on designed runs. Saban has stressed throughout the week for Alabama's players not to get sucked in by the allure of a sack. The more that happens, the more likely Prescott is to move the chains with his feet.
EDGE: Mississippi State
WHEN ALABAMA THROWS
Perhaps the most encouraging development for the Alabama offense against LSU was
Blake Sims' ability to get receivers not named
Amari Cooper involved in the passing game when it mattered most.
Christion Jones made arguably the biggest catch on the Crimson Tide's game-tying drive and
DeAndrew White caught the game-winning touchdown. Tight end
O.J. Howard made two pivotal catches to get Alabama moving. If Mississippi State goes ahead with its plan to play man coverage on Cooper, Sims might not need to look elsewhere in the passing game. Just ask Florida, Tennessee and Texas A&M what happened with their one-on-one plan. The Bulldogs' pass defense probably isn't as bad as their 300-yards-per-game average indicates, but they're probably not among the SEC's best, either. LSU, which completed eight passes against Alabama, finished with 341 passing yards against the Bulldogs while Kentucky had 401.
EDGE: Alabama
WHEN MISSISSIPPI STATE THROWS
With his running relatively limited against Arkansas, Prescott made the Razorbacks pay through the air when he finished with 331 passing yards, his second-largest total of the season. The Bulldogs' wide receiver stat breakdown is about as different to Alabama as it gets. Birmingham's
De'Runnya Wilson leads the Bulldogs with 367 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Five others have at least 225 and eight have cleared at least 148. Alabama's pass defense just keeps rising up the rankings after a rocky start to the season. In SEC play, Alabama's yet to allow more than 251 passing yards and has surrendered more than 200 in just three of the six games. After failing to pick off a pass in its first three games of the season, the Crimson Tide has at least one interception in all but one of its SEC games. Prescott has seven interceptions, five of which coming in the past three conference games.
EDGE: Push
WHEN THE SPECIALISTS EMERGE
Adam Griffith received a much-needed confidence boost Saturday when he made a field goal heading into halftime and another to send Alabama to overtime. Before his make put Alabama ahead, 10-7, heading into the half, he was 2-of-7 on his previous kicks. Mississippi State kicker
Evan Sobiesk is 6-of-7 on the season but missed his only attempt from 40 or more yards.
JK Scott gives Alabama the edge at punter in pretty much every situation. The Bulldogs are last in the SEC on punt returns and 10th on kick returns.
EDGE: Alabama
MOMENTUM
The LSU hangover is certainly real, as Alabama has yet to score a first-quarter touchdown in the game directly after its tussle with the Tigers since Saban was hired. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is coming off an easy win over UT-Martin in which it was able to rest most of its starters early in the second half. An emotionally charged win like the one Alabama had Saturday can go two ways. It's up to Alabama not to go the way it did in 2012. The Bulldogs receive the rare benefit of entering a game as the No. 1 team in the country that is widely considered the underdog.
EDGE: Push
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Alabama's front seven vs. Mississippi State's O-line
No one took a tougher beating at LSU than the Crimson Tide's front seven, which had to make tackle after tackle against the Tigers' big running backs. The hangover aspect is mostly mental, but for these players it might actually be physical. If Alabama can play up to its potential and limit the Bulldogs' rushing offense, the game will be put on Prescott's shoulders. That could still work out for Mississippi State, but it will significantly limit its abilities on offense.
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