From a Notre Dame board/fan:
First off, let's be crystal clear about something. Objective, tasteful criticism does not (let me repeat "does not") represent hate in any way, shape, or form. I have been a diehard Notre Dame fan for 30 years and just desperately want them to keep improving (continuous process improvement) so that we can win a championship one day (possibly this year!) and change the national narrative. Brian Kelly has done a fantastic job of rebuilding the program from the depths of the Weis era. However, the job is not done yet as there is still a bit more progress that needs to be made. Ok - on to the game.
1. ND Defense: We MUST commit to stopping Harris on the ground. Based on watching a bunch of Bama games, the offense starts with him and he is a beast on the ground often breaking multiple tackles on each play. Fortunately, our run defense is exceptional, so I think if the coaches feel the same way that we can succeed in shutting him down especially since Mac Jones is NOT mobile at all, so he is not a threat to run. The only reason we had issues against Clemson #2 is because Lawrence is a great runner and Clemson made him running the ball the priority knowing they couldn't just line up and beat us on the ground with Etienne. Take away the QB running threat and we will be in good shape. Regarding pass defense, given Devonta Smith's incredible speed, I think we need to always have safety top over the top on whichever side of the field Devonta Smith is on (when we are in man). When we are in zone, then we obviously need to make sure he doesn't get past the safeties on any go routes. He is a difficult matchup for our secondary as I do not believe any of our corners (or most team's corners!) can stay with him in man to man. However, this gets to my last point about our defense, which I haven't heard anyone else talk much about yet (I could be wrong). It is imperative that we get pressure on Mac Jones to force him to get rid of the ball quickly limiting the amount of time our secondary has to try to stay with Devonta Smith. This is an area where I have a lot of confidence actually despite Bama's OL being nominated for the Joe Moore award. Florida, which does not have a very good defense, was able to get consistent pressure on Mac Jones. The one observation I have about Mac Jones that gives me some encouragement is that he is (1) not mobile at all and (2) he goes down pretty easily. I realize he is listed at 6'3 214 lbs, but when someone gets a hand on him, he goes down pretty quickly. This is in stark contrast to most of the QB's we have played against this year who have been very difficult to bring down (Hough, Lawrence, Jurkovec, among others, etc.). Our defense has done a good job this year of getting sacks, but we would have a LOT more sacks if some of the QB's we played against weren't so difficult to bring down. Thus, I think there's a chance that we are able to sack Mac Jones quite a few times. Worst case scenario, we force them to use max protection limiting the number of players running routes who we have to try to cover.
2. ND Offense: I believe the performance by our offense against Clemson #2 was not indicative of our ability on offense. The team had a bad night on offense. I always remind myself in situations like this that "it's never as bad as it seems and it's never as good as it seems". Thus, with respect to Clemson #2, it's the former. Clemson had an exceptional game plan to contain Book in the pocket in a way that no other team has done yet. This caught Book and Rees by surprise and we were not able to adapt quickly enough. I am confident that they will be ready for it if Bama tries something similar. I do not believe Bama's defense is anywhere close to as good as Clemson's and I KNOW that Bama's defensive coordinator is not nearly as good as Clemson's. Thus, we should have opportunities if we execute well and if we have a good game plan. Regarding the game plan on offense, in my opinion, we should start out in more 12, 13, and 14 personnel focusing on establishing the run and playing to our strengths (OL, TE, RB, and very mobile QB). I believe Tremble should often be in the backfield as Kyren (and Tyree's) lead blocker. I don't know what the statistics say, but I would be surprised if we did not average more yards per carry when Tremble is lined up as a fullback. Since our TE's are such great receivers, we should mix in some play action passes out of this formation (taking some deep shots with McKinley or Skowronek to keep their safeties from creeping up and possibly catch them off guard) especially if we are able to have some early success running out of this formation (I believe we would if this strategy is employed). Also, I believe we should mix in some bootlegs and rollouts to get Book out of the pocket where he has the opportunity to pass or run (pass run options). I believe we need to utilize Book a lot more on designed QB runs. Obviously, we get an extra blocker when we run with the QB, so this is an added bonus. It will also make their defense respect Book on designed runs which should help open things up for Kyren (and Tyree). Further, we should look to incorporate some wheel routes out of the backfield for Kyren (and Tyree) as both are very good receivers and Bama's LB's should not be able to match up well with them in pass coverage. What I do not think we should do is try to run the ball too often (occasionally is good as it keeps the defense honest) out of a spread formation. From my observations, while this has been reasonably effective at times throughout the year, it has generally not worked well against good defenses. When we line up in tight formations, it plays more to our strengths and helps negate the speed disadvantage that we have on the perimeter with this year's starting WR's. In addition to our great OL and unique quality depth at TE, both starting WR's (McKinley and Skowronek) are big and great blockers. I don't think another team in college football has this unique formula. We are literally built to run the football (with our RB or QB) out of tight formations with 12, 13, or 14 personnel. Then we mix in our pass plays out of this formation when the defense isn't expecting it and we will likely hit some big plays. Another advantage to this strategy is that it should make it more difficult for their defense to contain Book in the pocket or at least make that less of a perceived priority as they will be focused on stopping the run. Lastly, I think we need to incorporate some trick plays and misdirection plays. Clemson ran a number of these in both games, so I'm not suggesting this because we are a big underdog. It's just smart football. The Eagles won a Super Bowl with a trick play, so Notre Dame is certainly not "above" running such plays.
3. Special Teams: This is simple. Do NOT punt the ball to Devonta Smith.
Prediction: The more film I watch on Bama, the more confident I get that we can win this game. I don't care what the pundits or Heisman voters say, but Trevor Lawrence is on a different stratosphere than Mac Jones. Sam Hough is better than Mac Jones as both a runner and passer. I think we will get 1 interception and force and recover a fumble on one of our sacks (there will be a handful). I believe Clemson #2 was a wake up call for Rees, Kelly, and Book as it highlighted some adjustments that need to be made. I am confident they will be ready for anything Bama's defense throws at them. I also believe that they weren't nearly as hungry as Clemson was as they thought they were a lock for the playoffs regardless of what happened. They will be mentally ready against Bama.
Notre Dame will beat Alabama 34-31 in regulation. 4 TD's for ND and 2 FG's and 4 TD's for Bama and 1 FG.
I welcome any thoughtful commentary.
