BAMANEWSBOT
Staff
ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit raised eyebrows when he correctly picked Auburn to win the SEC West in 2010. Last year, he took Alabama as SEC champion, and although that didn't happen, the Crimson Tide won the national title in an SEC rematch over LSU.
Herbstreit's 2012 SEC prediction: Alabama beats Georgia in Atlanta -- thanks to the dismissal of LSU's Tyrann Mathieu.
"We're kind of in an either-or situation with Alabama and LSU," Herbstreit said during an interview today. "They are so much better than everybody else."
Like many prognosticators, Herbstreit liked LSU to win the SEC until Mathieu was dismissed last week.
"I think that's such a significant loss for them," Herbstreit said. "I think Tyrann Mathieu meant so much to LSU, not just with his returns and play-making ability but his leadership. I think the timing of taking him away has a negative impact on LSU."
Herbstreit's main question about Alabama is how Nick Saban and Kirby Smart will replace so many key defensive players from last season's national championship team. Seven starters are gone from the 2011 defense, plus some key reserves.
"Because experience goes so far in picking up Nick and Kirby's system, it's impossible to sit here and predict how quickly not only the starting 11 will pick it up, but others too," Herbstreit said. "It's the nickel situation. It's the dime package. They lost nine players off that group.
"It's not just putting in guys who played some, like (C.J.) Mosley and (Nico) Johnson and (Adrian) Hubbard. It's the guys behind them and when they rotate guys how will they do? Will there be a significant drop-off?"
Alabama was in this position in 2010 after a national championship, having lost many important parts on defense. The Crimson Tide went 10-3 and gave up 35, 24 and 28 points in the three defeats.
"I think inexperience cost them a couple times in 2010," Herbstreit said. "Nick will say, 'Let's not let that happen again.' I think that could be an advantage of such a recent history with a lack of experience."
For Auburn, Herbstreit said eight or nine wins would be a "remarkable" year considering it's a fairly young team learning a new offense. Three of Auburn's first four games are against Clemson in Atlanta, at Mississippi State and home vs. LSU.
"You're looking at if they can get to 2-2 they'd be fortunate, and 3-1 they'd be playing with house money," Herbstreit said. "After that, the schedule opens up for them. The concern for me with Auburn is here's a team that won the national championship in 2010, had to fight and scratch and claw to get to eight wins last year, and now look at how competitive the SEC West is."
Herbstreit expects to see a more traditional Auburn football team under new coordinators Brian VanGorder and Scot Loeffler. Herbstreit thinks the more-experienced defense will be attacking with multiple schemes to try to confuse offenses.
The biggest changes he envisions are on Auburn's offense.
"That's where you'll see a big difference from Gus Malzahn, who had like a Chinese fire drill in the backfield with all the motions they did," Herbstreit said. "Even though it was successful with a Cam Newton, it takes a really, really unique quarterback with a certain skill set to run that kind of offense.
"For Gene Chizik to change to Scot Loeffler, that's kind of who Auburn is. I'm guessing it's going to be a little more traditional pro-style offense and try to take advantage of a big, strong offensive line. Over the long haul, that's probably in the best interest of Auburn football."
Herbstreit likes Georgia winning the SEC East because of its advantageous schedule, Aaron Murray's experience, and the Bulldogs' returning defense. "It's kind of the trifecta for a team to be successful," he said. (For the record, Herbstreit picked Alabama to beat South Carolina for the SEC title last year, and it turned out to be LSU over Georgia.)
The SEC sits at six straight national championships. Herbstreit said two teams nationally could knock off the SEC: Florida State and USC.
Florida State generated lots of hype before 2011 and fizzled, but Herbstreit said he thought at the time the Seminoles were a year or two away. Now he looks at a schedule in which he thinks the Seminoles will be heavy favorites for every game except a road trip to Virginia Tech.
"I think their defense will maybe be the best in the country," Herbstreit said. "I think they have the offense to put around E.J. Manuel, and they really have a chance to return to their glory years."
Herbstreit said the attention surrounding USC is justified based on the Trojans' offense. He wonders whether USC's depth -- the Trojans are playing with scholarship limits due to NCAA violations -- will hold up on defense.
"Selfishly for me, it would be fun to see Matt Barkley and his receivers, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, match up vs. an SEC defense," Herbstreit said. "We've never gotten that, even with all those great teams with Pete Carroll."
Herbstreit's 2012 SEC prediction: Alabama beats Georgia in Atlanta -- thanks to the dismissal of LSU's Tyrann Mathieu.
"We're kind of in an either-or situation with Alabama and LSU," Herbstreit said during an interview today. "They are so much better than everybody else."
Like many prognosticators, Herbstreit liked LSU to win the SEC until Mathieu was dismissed last week.
"I think that's such a significant loss for them," Herbstreit said. "I think Tyrann Mathieu meant so much to LSU, not just with his returns and play-making ability but his leadership. I think the timing of taking him away has a negative impact on LSU."
Herbstreit's main question about Alabama is how Nick Saban and Kirby Smart will replace so many key defensive players from last season's national championship team. Seven starters are gone from the 2011 defense, plus some key reserves.
"Because experience goes so far in picking up Nick and Kirby's system, it's impossible to sit here and predict how quickly not only the starting 11 will pick it up, but others too," Herbstreit said. "It's the nickel situation. It's the dime package. They lost nine players off that group.
"It's not just putting in guys who played some, like (C.J.) Mosley and (Nico) Johnson and (Adrian) Hubbard. It's the guys behind them and when they rotate guys how will they do? Will there be a significant drop-off?"
Alabama was in this position in 2010 after a national championship, having lost many important parts on defense. The Crimson Tide went 10-3 and gave up 35, 24 and 28 points in the three defeats.
"I think inexperience cost them a couple times in 2010," Herbstreit said. "Nick will say, 'Let's not let that happen again.' I think that could be an advantage of such a recent history with a lack of experience."
For Auburn, Herbstreit said eight or nine wins would be a "remarkable" year considering it's a fairly young team learning a new offense. Three of Auburn's first four games are against Clemson in Atlanta, at Mississippi State and home vs. LSU.
"You're looking at if they can get to 2-2 they'd be fortunate, and 3-1 they'd be playing with house money," Herbstreit said. "After that, the schedule opens up for them. The concern for me with Auburn is here's a team that won the national championship in 2010, had to fight and scratch and claw to get to eight wins last year, and now look at how competitive the SEC West is."
Herbstreit expects to see a more traditional Auburn football team under new coordinators Brian VanGorder and Scot Loeffler. Herbstreit thinks the more-experienced defense will be attacking with multiple schemes to try to confuse offenses.
The biggest changes he envisions are on Auburn's offense.
"That's where you'll see a big difference from Gus Malzahn, who had like a Chinese fire drill in the backfield with all the motions they did," Herbstreit said. "Even though it was successful with a Cam Newton, it takes a really, really unique quarterback with a certain skill set to run that kind of offense.
"For Gene Chizik to change to Scot Loeffler, that's kind of who Auburn is. I'm guessing it's going to be a little more traditional pro-style offense and try to take advantage of a big, strong offensive line. Over the long haul, that's probably in the best interest of Auburn football."
Herbstreit likes Georgia winning the SEC East because of its advantageous schedule, Aaron Murray's experience, and the Bulldogs' returning defense. "It's kind of the trifecta for a team to be successful," he said. (For the record, Herbstreit picked Alabama to beat South Carolina for the SEC title last year, and it turned out to be LSU over Georgia.)
The SEC sits at six straight national championships. Herbstreit said two teams nationally could knock off the SEC: Florida State and USC.
Florida State generated lots of hype before 2011 and fizzled, but Herbstreit said he thought at the time the Seminoles were a year or two away. Now he looks at a schedule in which he thinks the Seminoles will be heavy favorites for every game except a road trip to Virginia Tech.
"I think their defense will maybe be the best in the country," Herbstreit said. "I think they have the offense to put around E.J. Manuel, and they really have a chance to return to their glory years."
Herbstreit said the attention surrounding USC is justified based on the Trojans' offense. He wonders whether USC's depth -- the Trojans are playing with scholarship limits due to NCAA violations -- will hold up on defense.
"Selfishly for me, it would be fun to see Matt Barkley and his receivers, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, match up vs. an SEC defense," Herbstreit said. "We've never gotten that, even with all those great teams with Pete Carroll."
