📡 ESPN FPI projects three contenders to flounder - 247Sports

[SEC Sports]

ESPN FPI projects three contenders to flounder

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247sports.com

Be careful betting on a team from the SEC not named Alabama, Georgia or LSU to win the league this season.

Three teams inside ESPN's preseason Football Power Index Top 11 are projected to underwhelm this season and each of them are from the nation's most competitive conference.

Coincidence? Unlikely.

Florida at No. 8, Auburn at No. 9 and Texas A&M at No. 11 are all projected to hover around 8-4 seasons, far below expectations for contenders. The Aggies were ahead of schedule last fall, finishing 9-4 with their bowl win to establish noticeable momentum heading into Jimbo Fisher's second year.

According to ESPN, the FPI is a "measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

Based on schedule toughness, each of these programs rank near the top nationally. The Aggies are one of only teams teams who have to play Clemson, Alabama and Georgia — the three teams ranked Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in the coaches poll — and travel to Baton Rouge to battle LSU.

“It’s a great opportunity. Play one at a time," Fisher said last week on ESPN. "You can't play the next opponent until you play the one you're at and get better every week. If you want to be relevant, you have to do things and make people take notice of you.

"We’re in a perfect position with a great young team, only five seniors. We’re very talented in my opinion and there’s opportunity to take advantage of it. To have those kinds of games, it makes people take notice and if you want people to notice you, go win those games."

Florida tackles Auburn and LSU from the SEC West, a tough draw for any team, while the Tigers open vs. Oregon and close at Alabama. Those are just two of the several nationally-ranked matchups on each team's respective schedule.

How's that for Gus Malzahn's group to bookend the regular season?

Auburn will start a first-year quarterback against the Ducks, a signal caller battle between second-year freshman Joey Gatewood and true freshman Bo Nix. Malzahn wants to have his QB1 named sooner, rather than later with the first fall scrimmage upcoming on Thursday inside Jordan-Hare.

"I mean, you hope so," Malzahn said on Sunday. "Every practice — the scrimmages are more important in evaluation than practices. Like I said at first, it's going to be one of those deals where we're putting them through as many situations as we can. When we know for sure the guy that gives us the best chance of going against Oregon, we'll name (them). It's still kind of no timetable, but I'm looking forward to the first scrimmage."

 

[bama alum]

GO DUCKS!

 

[TUSKtimes]

Cristobal is recruiting up in the great northwest. He needs this and I need this to get the season going strong.

 

[OldPlayer]

Auburn will flounder. There's too much pressure on them and they don't play well under pressure. Most of the fanbase wants Malzahn out so they will be rooting for failure to force the move.

Florida won't have a bad year, but the winner of the cocktail party will win the SEC East.

Texas A&M and LSU will battle it out for #2 in the West. LSU will lose again to Alabama because they have put so much pressure on themselves to beat Alabama. Instead of playing the next game, they're too focused on winning that game (it's part of what they're talking about in the preseason instead of their first game). Jimbo will continue to improve A&M, but they aren't ready yet.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Oregon will roll AU.... Au may have coach change with interim by mid season....
3-3@ mid season....and aloss to MSU may trigger a change....
Nix is excellent talent but...wrong style QB for AU.... the other is fair QB......
But with the absense of running game......QB will have to be outstanding....

 

[bama alum]

Oregon will roll AU.... Au may have coach change with interim by mid season....
3-3@ mid season....and aloss to MSU may trigger a change....
Nix is excellent talent but...wrong style QB for AU.... the other is fair QB......
But with the absense of running game......QB will have to be outstanding....

One of my fb friends said she heard the guys on JOX this morning say the barn is probably headed for a 6 - 6 year. That's the kind of record Gus proclaimed at media days will get him canned.

 

[rammerjammer]

Oregon will roll AU.... Au may have coach change with interim by mid season....
3-3@ mid season....and aloss to MSU may trigger a change....
Nix is excellent talent but...wrong style QB for AU.... the other is fair QB......
But with the absense of running game......QB will have to be outstanding....

6 pound 7 ounce Baby Jesus, please make this happen.

 

[planomateo]

I don't think Oregon has what it takes to beat Auburn.

 

[OldPlayer]

One of my fb friends said she heard the guys on JOX this morning say the barn is probably headed for a 6 - 6 year. That's the kind of record Gus proclaimed at media days will get him canned.

IMO, anything less than nine wins will get him canned. 8-4, 7-5, 6-6 ...

 

[TerryP]

I don't think Oregon has what it takes to beat Auburn.

You're not alone. I've seen many say the same while referencing things like PAC vs SEC.

I do think it's important to note it took a late game drive for Auburn to beat Washington last year. And right now AU doesn't have the QB to manufacture a drive like that if they're in the same situation.

Likely play the under.

2019: Week One - Auburn -3 (-155) vs Oregon (+135) O/U 58

www.rolltidebama.com

 

[50+yeartidefan]

You're not alone. I've seen many say the same while referencing things like PAC vs SEC.

I do think it's important to note it took a late game drive for Auburn to beat Washington last year. And right now AU doesn't have the QB to manufacture a drive like that if they're in the same situation.

Likely play the under.

2019: Week One - Auburn -3 (-155) vs Oregon (+135) O/U 58

www.rolltidebama.com

But @TerryP .... how can you go both ways.
You don't think The Ducks have what it takes but don't the AU has the QB for a lte drive

 

[It Takes Eleven]

6 pound 7 ounce Baby Jesus, please make this happen.

Although I'm going to enjoy it aubrun becomes an early season dumpster fire, I would rather see them languish another year or two under Gus, let the recruits fall away for another cycle or two, and put them way into a ditch before making the change.

 

[TerryP]

But @TerryP .... how can you go both ways.
You don't think The Ducks have what it takes but don't the AU has the QB for a lte drive

By saying "you're not alone" I wasn't saying "I'm with you." Just others agree with what he's saying.

I can't come to that conclusion because of what we saw last year from Washington and what we know about Auburn in '19.

And, there's no denying the fact we don't know what we're going to get with Mario in the HC role.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

By saying "you're not alone" I wasn't saying "I'm with you." Just others agree with what he's saying.

I can't come to that conclusion because of what we saw last year from Washington and what we know about Auburn in '19.

And, there's no denying the fact we don't know what we're going to get with Mario in the HC role.

Oregon has an excellent QB returning and is one of the Pac12 better teams. AU has NOT that QB and is a middle if pack team in SEC with a solid D for sure.
No we don't know about Mario but this Oregon team has capabilities to make noise.
Really don't think AU does

 

[TerryP]

No we don't know about Mario but this Oregon team has capabilities to make noise.
Really don't think AU does

The one advantage Oregon/Cristobal has if experience against AU. He's been through game planning enough to have a decent grasp on what Auburn and Steele will try to do.

Gus in the unknown as well. Are we going to see the 4-4 Gus as we've seen in the past when he's been calling plays without a proven QB?

I'm still with my earlier opinion ... not going to mess with the spread, but do like the under. (Ducks are 5-2-1 on the under in their last eight, Auburn is 12-5-1 in their last 18 on the under.)

 

[TUSKtimes]

Oregon has an excellent QB returning and is one of the Pac12 better teams. AU has NOT that QB and is a middle if pack team in SEC with a solid D for sure.
No we don't know about Mario but this Oregon team has capabilities to make noise.
Really don't think AU does

Oregon looked pretty good last season from what I could tell. Getting Justin Herbert back for his senior season is a biggy alright. Cristobal is looking at the biggest game of his young power 5 coaching gig in a few weeks. I just hope they're still licking their wounds and wanting some payback from the last time they played.

It feels like Nix will get his chance to move this team in the biggest of spotlights. But gus has a system and whats maybe being overlooked a little is that the barners are going to be much more of a junior and senior dominate team at almost all positions. Because of that gus is turning the turbo-speed back on this offense. I certainly don't look for the same defensive slugfest we saw vs Washington.

 

[TerryP]

Well, he came to Alabama to rehab and learn.

First sentence and I'm asking, "what?" "Rehab?"

 

[It Takes Eleven]

First sentence and I'm asking, "what?" "Rehab?"

 

[TUSKtimes]

First sentence and I'm asking, "what?" "Rehab?"

You mean the message that almost was but wasn't. Decided to skip the point. But in that, you ask. FIU had its good points for Cristabol and its lows. I thought FIU was premature in firing the dude and mostly because, who does FIU think they are? But fire him they did.

Like many others before him, did Cristabol think he had room to grow and figure some stuff out about the head coaching position? Getting fired by FIU, I would speculate yes, that had to be a lot of the motivation for coming to Alabama. Rehab is to reinvent yourself as it goes in the coaching profession. Did coaching at Bama reinvent his coaching profile? Do you think Oregon comes-a-calling otherwise?

 

[TerryP]

You mean the message that almost was but wasn't. Decided to skip the point. But in that, you ask.

No. I didn't skip anything. I stopped reading at that point because I didn't know what base you were taking off from.

This doesn't clear it up, "the message that almost was but wasn't."

Off the jump, I don't konw where you're coming from. Are you suggesting his hire here was viewed as a rehab stint?